Coronavirus thread

[Florestan]

Russia's record virus death toll persists — 9:38 a.m.

Associated Press

Russia's record high coronavirus death toll persisted for a second straight day on Saturday, as the number of new infections declined.

The state coronavirus task force reported 1,254 COVID-19 deaths, matching Friday's tally.

The task force also reported 37,120 new confirmed cases. The daily new infections in recent weeks appear to have a downward trend but still remain higher than during previous surges of the virus.

The latest surge in infections and deaths comes amid low vaccination rates and lax public attitudes toward taking precautions. About 40% of Russia's nearly 146 million people have been fully vaccinated, even though the country approved a domestically developed COVID-19 vaccine months before most of the world.

The other day Romanian TV channels reported that unvaccinated Russians may soon be unable to buy vodka.

I wonder if this is true. And if this is true, I wonder how such a ruling could be enforced.

I am reminded of somebody's dictum (I can't remember whose otomh but I strongly feel it was a Russian writer) that in a totalitarian regime corruption is the only guarantee of personal freedom left to people. 

[T. D.]

Got boosted this morning.

[Update] I'm scheduled for Monday at the County site. Despite being only 64, I phoned the County last Thursday and asked if I could get the booster. They said "yes" because of my job (contact with public).
Too lazy to go on Friday (it's an hour drive), so went for the next available date. I trust the County facility much more than the local pharmacy (CVS) chain.

[Que]

Why are you so angry about UK and lose no opportunity to paint them in black, I wonder? 

Well, the UK has fallen of its historical pedestal in a most deplorable way. And please don't get me started on the rot of democratic values and standards of civic society that is occurring in some Eastern European countries. But that is geopolitics to be discussed on another occasion.

Back to the topic at hand and UK. The idea that the UK had handled and is handling this pandemic in an exemplary way,  is absolutely ludicrous. And that has nothing to do with national customs or ways.

[Mandryka]

Well, the UK has fallen of its historical pedestal in a most deplorable way. And please don't get me started on the rot of democratic values and standards of civic society that is occurring in some Eastern European countries. But that is geopolitics to be discussed on another occasion.

Back to the topic at hand and UK. The idea that the UK had handled and is handling this pandemic in an exemplary way,  is absolutely ludicrous. And that has nothing to do with national customs or ways.

We did three things which were exemplary and which were very important

1. Reduce the gap between the first two doses
2. Vaccinate quickly, efficiently and in a very structured way.
3. Develop an open relationship between policy makers and the public, so trust was not eroded.

Whether our approach to shifting to endemic stage is the best role model for other states to follow depends on whether there is a better model. I am suggesting that there may not be, at least for states with a large base of vaccinated people (like Holland) and a well functioning public health service.

To be honest, my biggest worry about the British way is not to do with covid deaths at all, it is to do with the long tail of non covid illnesses for the National Health System has been delaying treating. That's potentially a big sting in the tail.

But even so, I would say that it's far from obvious that there's a better strategy.

[Todd]

Across Europe, protests swell against pandemic restrictions

[Florestan]

Well, the UK has fallen of its historical pedastal in a most deplorable way.

This might be true for those who placed the UK on a historical pedestal. I am not one of them.

don't get me started on the rot of democratic values and standards of civic society that is occurring in some Eastern European countries.

See? That's one big problem for us rotten Eastern Europeans: the arrogant, holier-than-thou, we-know-better-than-you attitude of people who think they are the be-all-and-end-all of democracy and civic society just because they happened to be rescued and shielded from totalitarianism by the USA.

By all means, go on patronizing and lecturing us and force-feeding on us your values and standards --- but then please stop wondering why is it that an increasing number of people who eagerly and sincerely wanted to join the EU (yours truly is one such) are now hugely disappointed and, given the opportunity, would vote for exit. What we wanted and expected is not at all what we got --- in some cases it was the very opposite, honestly.

But that is geopolitics to be discussed on another occasion.

Agreed.

the idea that the UK had handled and is handling this pandemic in an exemplary way,  is absolutely ludicrous.

I never claimed that.

[Que]

We did two things which were exemplary and which were very important

1. Reduce the gap between the first two doses
2. Vaccinate quickly, efficiently and in a very structured way.

Whether our approach to shifting to endemic stage is the best role model for other states to follow depends on whether there is a better model. I am suggesting that there may not be, at least for states with a large base of vaccinated people (like Holland) and a well functioning public health service.

To be honest, my biggest worry about the British way is not to do with covid deaths at all, it is to do with the long tail of non covid illnesses for the National Health System has been delaying treating. That's potentially a big sting in the tail.

But even so, I would say that it's far from obvious that there's a better strategy.

Let's not forget that at the beginning of this crisis the laissez faire policy of the British ("let the virus run its course"), which was purposely chosen, made the situation in the UK actually the worst in Europe.

The early availability of the AstraZeneca vaccine was not a the result of amazing policy decisions, but was purely accidental. Only history will tell us whether this was because the British lawyers were smarther than those of the EU, or that Johnson pulled some strings with his "chums". I suspect the latter. The UK got subsequently lucky in already having the NHS, compliments to Labour govts and a good reminder for Tories that want to tear it apart or sell it off, to conduct an efficient vaccination program.

Because the situation in the UK was so desperate and vaccinations were running smoothly, it decided to shorten the time gap between the shots. Another lucky gamble that payed off...

During all that time the UK did not compare well to many countries  in terms of infections or hospitalisations. Eventually it lost its head start in vaccinations. To top it all off: AZ does not appear to be the best vaccine. It wasn't as effective to begin with and effectiveness goes down quicker than with other vaccines. The UK population needs a booster more urgently.

But I'm sure in retrospect this all seems utterly brilliant... 

[Mandryka]

Let's not forget that at the beginning of this crisis the laissez faire policy of the British ("let the virus run its course"), which was purposely chosen, made the situation in the UK actually the worst in Europe.

The early availability of the AstraZeneca vaccine was not a the result of amazing policy decisions, but was purely accidental. Only history will tell us whether this was because the British lawyers were smarther than those of the EU, or that Johnson pulled some strings with his "chums". I suspect the latter. The UK got subsequently lucky in already having the NHS, compliments to Labour govts and a good reminder for Tories that want to tear it apart or sell it off, to conduct an efficient vaccination program.

Because the situation in the UK was so desperate and vaccinations were running smoothly, it decided to shorten the time gap between the shots. Another lucky gamble that payed off...

During all that time the UK did not compare well to many countries  in terms of infections or hospitalisations. Eventually it lost its head start in vaccinations. To top it all off: AZ does not appear to be the best vaccine. It wasn't as effective to begin with and effectiveness goes down quicker than with other vaccines. The UK population needs a booster more urgently.

But I'm sure in retrospect this all seems utterly brilliant... 

I think you're avoiding addressing the question at hand, which is: is the British way now the best way for countries with a suitable level of vaccination and a suitably large public health service (like Holland maybe)? And if not, what is the better way?

[Karl Henning]

[Update] I'm scheduled for Monday at the County site. Despite being only 64, I phoned the County last Thursday and asked if I could get the booster. They said "yes" because of my job (contact with public).
Too lazy to go on Friday (it's an hour drive), so went for the next available date. I trust the County facility much more than the local pharmacy (CVS) chain.

Very good. As with my first two shots, My system took the booster in stride.

[Que]

Very good. As with my first two shots, My system took the booster in stride.

Good job! 

[greg]

In the long term you and we all will die. And somebody will surely blame it in long term effects of the vaccine, even after 20 years.

I'm only going to be 53 in 20 years. I'm planning on living as long as possible, retiring by 50 and enjoying my life of health and wealth. So avoiding everything as long as possible (people, new vaccines) would have been the best option. Maybe not everyone is okay with that strategy, but I am. But I don't get that option.

You mean the hive mind that eliminated small pox from the planet? That cornered polio into a last stand in Pakistan? The one where everyone in their right mind has their children vaccinated against multiple diseases so they can go to school? The hive that listens to disinterested scientists offering objective evidence about a health crisis?

I understand the reasons and results for mandating vaccines. But what I have a problem with are the people who flat out don't understand the pushback, the opposite side. It's like they don't even value their own choices for what they want for their own body, or understand the concerns of what type of precedent this could set. People being passive and complying isn't going to stop a government that's hellbent on micromanaging its citizens lives.

You could say that you believe it's just a temporary thing, and that the government isn't trying to become more authoritarian, in which case I'd say it's unlikely, but at least I'd respect that different opinion. What I can't respect is the opinion that we shouldn't care if we are sliding into authoritarianism.

I think you should be glad you've taken a reasonable step to protect your coworkers and others, even if you felt forced into it.

I've protected no one but myself (hopefully), and that isn't guaranteed, either. Also, I work from home, so I don't get anywhere close to anyone for 5 days a week. The other two, I keep distance and wear a mask.
This argument doesn't work any more now that we know vaccinated people can spread it.

[Florestan]

Across Europe, protests swell against pandemic restrictions

Hooligans! 

[krummholz]

[Update] I'm scheduled for Monday at the County site. Despite being only 64, I phoned the County last Thursday and asked if I could get the booster. They said "yes" because of my job (contact with public).
Too lazy to go on Friday (it's an hour drive), so went for the next available date. I trust the County facility much more than the local pharmacy (CVS) chain.

And as of yesterday (I think), all adults in the US are eligible for a booster regardless of age, as long as one is 6 months out from the 2nd dose of an mRNA vaccine, or 2 months out from the J&J.

[T. D.]

And as of yesterday (I think), all adults in the US are eligible for a booster regardless of age, as long as one is 6 months out from the 2nd dose of an mRNA vaccine, or 2 months out from the J&J.

I am not sure of that.
When I signed up yesterday afternoon, the County (in NY State) site still stated that mRNA vaccine recipients under the age of 65 had additional medical / occupational requirements.
That point has confused me for a while. I've seen a number of headline "all adults" statements, but the concrete appointment-making sites have not been reflecting them.

[krummholz]

You could say that you believe it's just a temporary thing, and that the government isn't trying to become more authoritarian, in which case I'd say it's unlikely, but at least I'd respect that different opinion. What I can't respect is the opinion that we shouldn't care if we are sliding into authoritarianism.

IMO requiring vaccination as a condition for entering certain public spaces is a reasonable measure during a public health emergency such as we are in today. It is not so much that it is temporary as that it is a one-off, and very exceptional situation. The world has not seen a pandemic such as this in slightly over a century. I would very much care if I felt we were sliding into authoritarianism (and DID care about precisely that during the years 2017 - 2020, and into January 2021). I am very much concerned about the loss of civil liberties such as those enshrined by the 2nd Amendment, both because the infringement of those rights can be the first step on a slippery slope to depriving the people of other, also Constitutionally guaranteed rights; and because the pushback from such infringements can lead to the people electing populist and egocentric leaders who will truly complete the slide into authoritarianism. I do not feel that depriving citizens whose decisions contribute to endangering others of the freedom to enter certain public spaces under these exceptional circumstances is comparable to the pogroms of the last century that created a class of "untermenschen", as someone implied. I do not feel that this constitutes a slide into authoritarianism. I'll feel differently if the restrictions are maintained for longer than, or are imposed when they are no longer supportable by the facts and the science. We're nowhere near that point now.

This argument doesn't work any more now that we know vaccinated people can spread it.

Yes, vaccinated people can spread it, but that doesn't invalidate the argument. It is not a black and white question, can or cannot. Unvaccinated people are far likelier to spread the virus. Vaccinated people are much less likely to become infected in the first place, and if they do contract the virus, they harbour infectious quantities for a significantly shorter time than the unvaccinated.

[krummholz]

I am not sure of that.
When I signed up yesterday afternoon, the County (in NY State) site still stated that mRNA vaccine recipients under the age of 65 had additional medical / occupational requirements.
That point has confused me for a while. I've seen a number of headline "all adults" statements, but the concrete appointment-making sites have not been reflecting them.

I have only seen/heard the same headlines as you, but they were quite explicit: both the CDC and the FDA have signed off on this. It is likely that the appointment-making sites just haven't been updated, or hadn't been as of yesterday. The decision JUST came down yesterday or the day before. When adults over 65 became eligible, Walgreens' appointment system was still refusing to schedule anyone who wasn't vulnerable for medical reasons for at least a couple of days.

[Karl Henning]

greg, I sincerely doubt that you know what arguments work and what arguments don't.

[Karl Henning]

I have only seen/heard the same headlines as you, but they were quite explicit: both the CDC and the FDA have signed off on this. It is likely that the appointment-making sites just haven't been updated, or hadn't been as of yesterday. The decision JUST came down yesterday or the day before. When adults over 65 became eligible, Walgreens' appointment system was still refusing to schedule anyone who wasn't vulnerable for medical reasons for at least a couple of days.

A lag in catching up is only to be expected, I suppose.

[Que]

Given that according to both official CDC  statements and published scientific data, vaccinated people can get infected and spread the disease, the above conclusion is not warranted in any way.

Oh, yes it is. This is a very common and quite persistent misunderstanding. The fact that (some) vaccinated could still catch and pass on the virus, doesn't mean that vaccination couldn't make the crucial difference. The level of infectiousness is so much lower that the virus would still die out amongst a mainly vaccinated population. It is the large reservoir of unvaccinated that keeps the virus going!

BTW Another interesting fact: if you have recovered from Covid, you can get it again. Especially if it is another strain.
Just saying...

[Mandryka]

IMO requiring vaccination as a condition for entering certain public spaces is a reasonable measure during a public health emergency such as we are in today. It is not so much that it is temporary as that it is a one-off, and very exceptional situation. The world has not seen a pandemic such as this in slightly over a century. I would very much care if I felt we were sliding into authoritarianism (and DID care about precisely that during the years 2017 - 2020, and into January 2021). I am very much concerned about the loss of civil liberties such as those enshrined by the 2nd Amendment, both because the infringement of those rights can be the first step on a slippery slope to depriving the people of other, also Constitutionally guaranteed rights; and because the pushback from such infringements can lead to the people electing populist and egocentric leaders who will truly complete the slide into authoritarianism. I do not feel that depriving citizens whose decisions contribute to endangering others of the freedom to enter certain public spaces under these exceptional circumstances is comparable to the pogroms of the last century that created a class of "untermenschen", as someone implied. I do not feel that this constitutes a slide into authoritarianism. I'll feel differently if the restrictions are maintained for longer than, or are imposed when they are no longer supportable by the facts and the science. We're nowhere near that point now.

The situation is not as drastic as you paint in Holland or Austria or Denmark or France or . . . , at least prima facie. There the decision to constrain the people is a choice, not something which is imposed by morality and the pandemic.


There is a high rate of vaccination protecting the population, and booster doses are available. The public health services are well developed.

The state has an alternative strategy: to let prevalence grow and provide care to those who fall ill, many of whom will not be fully vaccinated. They have made their own beds knowingly and freely, and so they must lie on them.

This is the UK way, which I am suggesting is the best way.