Coronavirus thread

[Mandryka]

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coronavirus-panic/?fbclid=IwAR3jL1kn74uF95hvPlWT8Nt4CzLwX7bY4tqsdqjq9ENlcY7OQjCvsfM9jK0

This looks like a contrarian assessment of what's happening. How balanced is it?

[SimonNZ]

"Off-Guardian"?

Wondering who they are I'm led to this article:

How I Produce Fake News for Russia

[Florestan]

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coronavirus-panic/?fbclid=IwAR3jL1kn74uF95hvPlWT8Nt4CzLwX7bY4tqsdqjq9ENlcY7OQjCvsfM9jK0

This looks like a contrarian assessment of what's happening. How balanced is it?

There are some good points but also some plain bullshit, surprisingly so (or maybe not, just another reminder that scientists are human themselves) coming from people with such impeccable scientific credentials. For instance, this:

There is a lot of unjustified panic in Israel. I don't believe the numbers here, everything is politics, not math. I will be surprised if number of deaths in Israel surpasses ten, and even five now with the restrictions.

Well, according to the today's edition of Haaretz: Coronavirus in Israel: Death Toll Rises to 21 as Cases Surge Above 5,500 (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/coronavirus-israel-netanyahu-breaking-news-1.8720108). That is, two if not four times Dr. Levitt's estimation and counting.

[Mandryka]

"Off-Guardian"?

Wondering who they are I'm led to this article:

How I Produce Fake News for Russia

Ahhh!

[SimonNZ]

Ahhh!

The title is misleading, but it does say that site is on some list of misinformation. Though I haven't followed up on that.

[Kaga2]

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coronavirus-panic/?fbclid=IwAR3jL1kn74uF95hvPlWT8Nt4CzLwX7bY4tqsdqjq9ENlcY7OQjCvsfM9jK0

This looks like a contrarian assessment of what's happening. How balanced is it?

It's important to consider contrarian views. There is a lot of uncertainty, and no obviously correct path. These snippets do not convince me we have grossly over estimated the risk, but I will continue to look at contrary opinion. Thanks for the link.

[Rinaldo]

It's important to consider contrarian views.

Depends. A lot of them are contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.

[greg]

Depends. A lot of them are contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.

Probably why the word "consider" is in that sentence.

I'd consider flat earth conspiracy for about 2 seconds, then say it's stupid. 

[drogulus]

     

I'd consider flat earth conspiracy for about 2 seconds, then say it's stupid. 

     That's why you're so admired here. Every 2 seconds you have a new idea.

[drogulus]

     One of the comments from the article is this:

In the majority of cases, COVID-19 takes the form of a mild cold or is even symptom-free. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that all cases of infection are recorded, in contrast with deaths which are almost completely recorded. This leads to an overestimation of the CFR.

According to a study of 565 Japanese people evacuated from Wuhan, all of whom were tested (regardless of symptoms), only 9.2% of infected people were detected with currently used symptom-oriented COVID-19 monitoring [5]. This would mean that the number of infected people is likely to be about 10 times greater than the number of registered cases. The CFR would then only be about one tenth of that currently measured. Others assume an even higher number of unreported cases, which would further reduce the CFR.

The media is currently communicating raw data, for example, there have been "X" infected persons and "Y" deaths to date. However, this presentation fails to distinguish between diagnoses and infections.

     This is not contrarian. The distinction between confirmed cases and infection estimates is both widely discussed and to some extent ignored.

     Regardless of the disturbing one day jump in deaths in Massachusetts, I am finding it hard to reconcile the slowdown in death rates with the 100,000-240,000 total coming from the WH.

     Once we get a handle on the total number of infected in the population I expect some of what are called contrarian views to turn out to be right.

[Florestan]

     One of the comments from the article is this:

In the majority of cases, COVID-19 takes the form of a mild cold or is even symptom-free. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that all cases of infection are recorded, in contrast with deaths which are almost completely recorded. This leads to an overestimation of the CFR.

According to a study of 565 Japanese people evacuated from Wuhan, all of whom were tested (regardless of symptoms), only 9.2% of infected people were detected with currently used symptom-oriented COVID-19 monitoring [5]. This would mean that the number of infected people is likely to be about 10 times greater than the number of registered cases. The CFR would then only be about one tenth of that currently measured. Others assume an even higher number of unreported cases, which would further reduce the CFR.

The media is currently communicating raw data, for example, there have been "X" infected persons and "Y" deaths to date. However, this presentation fails to distinguish between diagnoses and infections.

     This is not contrarian. The distinction between confirmed cases and infection estimates is both widely discussed and to some extent ignored.
   

That's one of the good points I was referring to. Obviously, in any given country the number of infected people is larger than the number of confirmed cases (I don't know whether 10 times greater is an accurate estimate, though) and consequently the real death rate is smaller than X deaths to Y confirmed cases.

[drogulus]

     Which 3 countries with a case total above 5,000 have the lowest rate of new cases?

     China, S. Korea and Italy have the lowest growth rates.

     

[Kaga2]

Anyone who can accurately calculate the mortality of Covid 19 should write it up. It will be the cover story for Nature.

[greg]

This is worth a watch. There is a suspect for Patient Zero, and the CCP tried to deny it but without proof. The Lady has sort of just disappeared apparently.

The theory is also slightly different... it involves the researchers doing field studies on the cause of coronaviruses within bats right before the breakout, and that's when she disappears.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU

[drogulus]

     

Anyone who can accurately calculate the mortality of Covid 19 should write it up. It will be the cover story for Nature.

     I'd like to see a large scale experiment using the antibody test to discover the extent of herd immunity.

     Pence says the US is like Italy. I think he's right, though I'm not sure he understands what that means.

[drogulus]

     

[greg]

This is worth a watch. There is a suspect for Patient Zero, and the CCP tried to deny it but without proof. The Lady has sort of just disappeared apparently.

The theory is also slightly different... it involves the researchers doing field studies on the cause of coronaviruses within bats right before the breakout, and that's when she disappears.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU

Ok, just rewatched this and it also mentions that the other lab researchers were self-quarantining already because they got infected from the bats. While they were doing studies on them about coronaviruses.

Seems the market story just isn't true then? Who made up that story then?

You know the CCP is now claiming it came from Italy or the US...


(btw none of this is conspiracy, it's actual research- in mainstream news stories they say it's from the market while providing zero evidence).

[drogulus]

     The conspiracy theories about the origins of the coronavirus, debunked

[greg]

     The conspiracy theories about the origins of the coronavirus, debunked

If this is supposed to be a response to my post, I don't see any connection...

[drogulus]

     You did say:

(btw none of this is conspiracy, it's actual research- in mainstream news stories they say it's from the market while providing zero evidence).