Coronavirus thread

[Karl Henning]

     Here's a feasible timeline for US reopening:

     

Thx

[Que]

     Here's a feasible timeline for US reopening:

I noticed that the 2nd wave is projected before the general availability of a vaccine.
Which is realistic but worrisome...

Q

[Mandryka]

I noticed that the 2nd wave is projected before the general availability of a vaccine.
Which is realistic but worrisome...

Q

I suppose everyone wants to be rid of lockdown for obvious economic reasons, despite the cost in lives. How to nuance that, how to decide how much of lockdown to cut, how many lives to sacrifice to the economy, is a difficult question.

I wonder if this debate will be aired in public.

[Rinaldo]

Ed Yong's follow-up article:

Our Pandemic Summer: The fight against the coronavirus won't be over when the U.S. reopens. Here's how the nation must prepare itself

[prémont]

I suppose everyone wants to be rid of lockdown for obvious economic reasons, despite the cost in lives. How to nuance that, how to decide how much of lockdown to cut, how many lives to sacrifice to the economy, is a difficult question.

I wonder if this debate will be aired in public.

The usual answer to this question given by experts in many countries is, that if we are to open the society up again  - and even if only a little, the vulnerable part of the population has got to accept a high degree of self-quarantine until a usable vaccine or efficient cure has been developed. And equally long time we all have to observe continued social distancing, hand-washing et. c. , and this will save many lives. But opening up more or less before a cure or vaccine has been found will all the same cost a number of lives also among younger age groups. I do not think anyone will be able to quantify this - or will want to. In Denmark we have opened up a little, and next step will be taken, when we in 3 -4 weeks see the early effect of this opening.

[Irons]

Yes, the mantra is very irritating now and possibly less efficacious the more it is repeated - a case of 'less is more' I think. It is also used as a way of avoiding answering questions directly.

Exactly, Jeffrey. I take exception being spoken to by a politician half my age as if I am a child.
Do not get me wrong, everyone connected to the NHS is doing a fantastic job, it is a war and they are the front line and I will be standing on my doorstep clapping this evening at their heroic efforts. But the media needs to get a grip, to sentimentalise their work is to downgrade it.

[Irons]

I thought that it was pretty cool that donations were coming from all over the world.   

More then cool, P.

He now has company on his circuits.

[ritter]

Yes, that's happening in many places.

Apart from the real ravages this pandemic is generating (on health and the economy), it's given free rein to all sorts of cheap sentimentality and even kitsch (the untranslatable Spanish word "cursilería").  I really can't stand all those football players singing from home, third-tier celebrities posting pictures of the banana bread they've just baked, or sharing their workout routine from their backyards, as if any of this had any interest beyond their closest circle of friends and family, and were in any way alleviating the situation for the wider population. But even in dire times like these, the unbridled narcissism of this era gets the upper hand...

[vandermolen]

More then cool, P.

He now has company on his circuits.

Yes, a well deserved Guard of Honour - how great!

[Mandryka]

The usual answer to this question given by experts in many countries is, that if we are to open the society up again  - and even if only a little, the vulnerable part of the population has got to accept a high degree of self-quarantine until a usable vaccine or efficient cure has been developed. And equally long time we all have to observe continued social distancing, hand-washing et. c. , and this will save many lives. But opening up more or less before a cure or vaccine has been found will all the same cost a number of lives also among younger age groups. I do not think anyone will be able to quantify this - or will want to. In Denmark we have opened up a little, and next step will be taken, when we in 3 -4 weeks see the early effect of this opening.

This is reasonable I think, if we're talking about people who don't have to work. The problem is that some of those vulnerable people may not in fact have the choice about risking their lives, because they have to pay the bills at the end of the month.

[Ratliff]

The usual answer to this question given by experts in many countries is, that if we are to open the society up again  - and even if only a little, the vulnerable part of the population has got to accept a high degree of self-quarantine until a usable vaccine or efficient cure has been developed. And equally long time we all have to observe continued social distancing, hand-washing et. c. , and this will save many lives. But opening up more or less before a cure or vaccine has been found will all the same cost a number of lives also among younger age groups. I do not think anyone will be able to quantify this - or will want to. In Denmark we have opened up a little, and next step will be taken, when we in 3 -4 weeks see the early effect of this opening.

The development of a vaccine is the universal criteria for going back to normal, and the time frame 18-24 months is frequently mentioned. But there is no guarantee that an effective vaccine will ever be found. There is still no effective vaccine for HIV.

I have seen some preliminary reports that the Covid-19 virus invades T cells and causes apoptosis (cell death), although it doesn't reproduce in them. T-cells are one of the main mechanisms that the immune system maintains long term memory, and this could limit immunity to the novel coronavirus to a few months.

[Mandryka]

The development of a vaccine is the universal criteria for going back to normal,

Or a drug to prevent or at least ameliorate the second phase.

[Ratliff]

Or a drug to prevent or at least ameliorate the second phase.

Anti-viral treatments are more difficult to find than vaccines. I think the backstop is holding isolation until the numbers go down enough to do traditional contact tracing (public health workers calling people on the phone, mapping contacts, with the authority to order people into quarantine. Aided by newfangled cellphone contact tracing data based on bluetooth. The rule of thumb is that one contact tracer is required for every 4 active cases. With 20% unemployment coming to the US, it shouldn't be hard to find them. Training them is another matter.

That's how SARS and MERS were eliminated. Trouble is the new SARS is apparently more efficient at transmitting itself.

[drogulus]

I have seen some preliminary reports that the Covid-19 virus invades T cells and causes apoptosis (cell death), although it doesn't reproduce in them. T-cells are one of the main mechanisms that the immune system maintains long term memory, and this could limit immunity to the novel coronavirus to a few months.

     I found this from 2000:

     NIAID Researchers Discover Why Some HIV-Infected People Don't Develop AIDS

Scientists have noticed connections between other HLA types and HIV disease progression in the past, but this is the first study to identify such an overwhelming correlation. "Some associations between HLA genes and disease resistance could be phenomena in which HLA isn't the key but is simply located near another important gene," explains Dr. Connors. "The functional studies included in our research indicate that this molecule is likely directly involved in restricting virus replication in this small subgroup of people."

     So, what's rare for HIV cases may be quite common for Covid-19. Much of the population may be LTNP (long term non-progressors).

     

     

[Herman]

There was a great New Yorker article that seemed to indicate that scientists are more looking for an antiviral medicine that could tackle more than one corona virus, sine the expectation is that there will be another one coming down the pike.

But no doubt there are other folks who are looking hard for a vaccine.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/13/the-quest-for-a-pandemic-pill

[Kaga2]

More on vaccines https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/coronavirus-vaccine-prospects

[Mandryka]

Really well done explanation of the problem of infection rate by Angela Merkel.


https://twitter.com/benjalvarez1/status/1250563198081740800?s=21

[Pohjolas Daughter]

The usual answer to this question given by experts in many countries is, that if we are to open the society up again  - and even if only a little, the vulnerable part of the population has got to accept a high degree of self-quarantine until a usable vaccine or efficient cure has been developed. And equally long time we all have to observe continued social distancing, hand-washing et. c. , and this will save many lives. But opening up more or less before a cure or vaccine has been found will all the same cost a number of lives also among younger age groups. I do not think anyone will be able to quantify this - or will want to. In Denmark we have opened up a little, and next step will be taken, when we in 3 -4 weeks see the early effect of this opening.

Premont, in what has has the society/businesses/life opened up so far; as in, what are they now allowing?

PD

[Pohjolas Daughter]

More then cool, P.

He now has company on his circuits.

I saw that on the BBC website this morning!     So nice that he is being recognized and honored by everyone!   

PD

[MusicTurner]

More on vaccines https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/coronavirus-vaccine-prospects

Interesting and informative, also as regards vocabulary etc.

I certainly don't claim to understand many details, but he seems however less informed about say the European angles, or those overseas elsewhere.