Coronavirus thread

[vandermolen]

You are not alone in this.

+2

[Herman]

This whole "the Chinese let the virus escape from their labs and then lied about it" conspiracy theory is a familiar diversion device from the Trump-loyal right.

If you're looking for people who deliberatley lied about the dangers of the virus and tried to obfuscate evidence, you don't have to look far. You're looking at the president of the USA who was talking about "fifteen cases" going back to zero as soon as the virus would "miraculously" (frantic hand gestures) go away.

On Fox figures like Hannity and Pirro have been spending a lot of time pushing the 'China did it deliberately' narrative passionately and their loyal viewers (i.e. easily excited low-info folks) are left with a lot of conflicting information, and in such a situation Blaming Strangers is the easy way out. Strangers can either be the Chinese, or even USA Librals  -  because after all this is about one thing only: Trump's reelection.
Even relatively well-informed people go down this route, just to let off steam. On GMG's former sister site RMCR the usual right wing cranks are still talking about "the Chinese virus" and defending this appelation.

Trump himself is in a strange situation, since he wants to be best buddies with Xi, but on the other hand he needs his fans to be foaming mouth angry with China, just to avoid them seeing the light and getting angry with who is really culpable here: Trump and his cronies. On a larger level all this talk about "punishing China" is silly; China owns 50% of the USA, just like Russia owns 25% of New York City (and 80% of Trump). If China were to dump all of its interests in the USA markets the USA would truly be a Third World country.

[Mandryka]

https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/sciences-prospective/coronavirus-moins-de-6-des-francais-infectes-selon-linstitut-pasteur-1196673

First the good news

Coronavirus : le nombre de nouvelles infections en forte baisse en France

Coronivirus: the number of new cases very much reduced in France

So lockdown works.

And the predictable bad news

Moins de 6 % de la population française infectée

Less than 6% of the French population has been infected.

So far from herd immunity in France. Lockdown is here to stay, with all the attendant economic consequences, unless something fundamentally changes.

[Herman]

And the predictable bad news

Less than 6% of the French population has been infected.

So far from herd immunity in France. Lockdown is here to stay, with all the attendant economic consequences, unless something fundamentally changes.

I believe the number was 3% in Da Netherlands. Of course there's very little testing done, but it looks like herd imm. does not work. It's too slow.

[ritter]

I know of a company in Central Europe  that had all its HQ personnel tested (some 30 people) and only two had Covid-19 antibodies and developed immunity. So yes, group immunity (I don't really like the term "herd" being applied to humans  ) seems slow indeed--even in this statitscally irrelevant sample. OTOH, the scoial distancing and workplace hygiene measures the company has implemented seem to be functioning.

[Iota]

Are not businesses in the UK able to help make things?  And/or individuals?  In the States, 'even' high schoolers who can make things (like those plastic face shields via a 3D printer).   

Yes indeed, and I think some smaller institutions/care homes etc are sourcing locally for some of the equipment they need. The problem is the NHS requirements are huge, approaching 80,000 gowns/masks etc needed for each standard-sized hospital every day. So if you add that up for hospitals across the entire UK, the figures are eye watering, and each new day they're needed again! So coordination needs to be on a national scale and involve the government.

Another frustration for many is that there have been many reports that British businesses have been enthusiastically contacting the government saying they are able and keen to start manufacture of said PPE immediately, and are receiving absolutely no reply. I don't know why this is, bad management or some other reason, but bearing in mind the risks the NHS doctors workers are taking every day on our behalf, it is an utterly appalling and disgraceful situation that needs resolving right now, whatever that requires.

[Mandryka]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html

These patients did not report any sensation of breathing problems, even though their chest X-rays showed diffuse pneumonia and their oxygen was below normal. How could this be?

We are just beginning to recognize that Covid pneumonia initially causes a form of oxygen deprivation we call "silent hypoxia" — "silent" because of its insidious, hard-to-detect nature.

A friend of mine who's a GP advised all his friends to by an oximeter. They cost very little on ebay (though they may have gone up of course!), so I got one. Reading this, I'm glad I did.

[Karl Henning]

Mass General models show flattening curve; COVID-19 patients not expected to overwhelm the system during this week's surge
Expect hospital admissions for coronavirus may begin to lower in about a week

[Mandryka]

I believe the number was 3% in Da Netherlands. Of course there's very little testing done, but it looks like herd imm. does not work. It's too slow.

3% in the Netherlands, 6% in France. Split the difference -- 4.5%

The population in the UK is 66.5M. So infected people in the UK is 4.5% of that.

2,970,000 people infected in the UK.

Let's say that there are 16,000 deaths so far in the UK --   Out of 2,970,000 infected, 16,000 have died.

So the mortality of COVID is about 0.5%

(Have I made a mistake?)


Bear in mind all the kerfuffle at the moment over care home deaths means that 16K is an underestimate (but, to be brutal, COVID has culled there -- sorry, I can't think of a more appropriate word for this tragedy.) It may be a one off.

[Que]

3% in the Netherlands, 6% in France. Split the difference -- 4.5%

The population in the UK is 66.5M. So infected people in the UK is 4.5% of that.

2,970,000 people infected in the UK.

Let's say that there are 16,000 deaths so far in the UK --   Out of 2,970,000 infected, 16,000 have died.

So the mortality of COVID is about 0.5%

(Have I made a mistake?)


Bear in mind all the kerfuffle at the moment over care home deaths means that 16K is an underestimate (but, to be brutal, COVID has culled there -- sorry, I can't think of a more appropriate word for this tragedy.) It may be a one off.

Fauci has stated that the mortality rate is probably around 1%.

If you do the numbers on a 3% infection rate in the Netherlands, which are 522.000 people, a mortality rate of 1% should result in 5.220 deaths. The official number of confirmed deaths (in hospitals) is now 3.916.
If you take into account 1.000 or more unconfirmed deaths in private homes and nursing homes, a mortality rate of around 1% sounds about right.

Q

[JBS]

JBS is Just Asking Questions.

The idea is has more rationality than you give it credit for.  The fact that Team Trump pushes a story so they can shift blame or distract does not mean the story is inherently misinformation.

[Karl Henning]

The idea is has more rationality than you give it credit for.  The fact that Team Trump pushes a story so they can shift blame or distract does not mean the story is inherently misinformation.

A sound point;  the Stopped Clock, and all.

[j winter]

Part of me thinks the whole "launched in a lab" thing is designed for Fox News senior citizens whose main experience with infectious diseases is reading Stephen King's The Stand back in the 70's.   



Don't get me wrong, it's a great book, one of my all-time faves, particularly as a young man; but it's not a medical journal, and Covid-19 is definitely not Captain Trips (thank goodness), nor is it going to bring about the end of civilization on the planet. 

Sheesh, every fool knows that doesn't happen until after the talking apes show up... get it together, people...

[greg]

The idea is has more rationality than you give it credit for.  The fact that Team Trump pushes a story so they can shift blame or distract does not mean the story is inherently misinformation.

Trump (or Trump fans) are pushing the lab escape theory? Never heard of this...

[Pohjolas Daughter]

some local news I'm reading for the first time in the Guardian:

New Zealanders donate $230,000 to help zoo feed animals during Covid-19 crisis
Orana Wildlife Park appealed for help after struggling to pay weekly food bills, including gorillas' $800 vegetable bill

I'm delighted to read that!  I believe that I had earlier provided a link to this article about a zoo in Germany.  I wonder whether or not they've received any help?  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52283658

[Ratliff]

I think the lab theory assumes the Chinese (most likely the local officials) lied about the identity of Patient Zero. Probably unprovable at this point.

I think it is unlikely they have identified a patient zero. The disease is not that distinctive in its symptoms. What is distinctive is the rate at which it spreads and the likelihood of severe symptoms. What brought it to their attention was a cluster around the market, which was consistent with repeated animal-human transmission or one animal-human transmission followed by spreading among people at the market. Assuming it was the first case was wishful thinking.

[greg]

I think it is unlikely they have identified a patient zero. The disease is not that distinctive in its symptoms. What is distinctive is the rate at which it spreads and the likelihood of severe symptoms. What brought it to their attention was a cluster around the market, which was consistent with repeated animal-human transmission or one animal-human transmission followed by spreading among people at the market. Assuming it was the first case was wishful thinking.

The only lead on any patient zero so far is Huang Yang Li, who was working with "bat lady" (Zhengli Shi) at the time on the bats while studying the coronavirus.

Her profile was taken off of the virology website and she's gone completely missing, and is suspected to be dead. Seems like if China wanted to take attention away from the lab origin theory then they could track her down and make her appear publicly, but it hasn't happened yet.

[JBS]

The only lead on any patient zero so far is Huang Yang Li, who was working with "bat lady" (Zhengli Shi) at the time on the bats while studying the coronavirus.

Her profile was taken off of the virology website and she's gone completely missing, and is suspected to be dead. Seems like if China wanted to take attention away from the lab origin theory then they could track her down and make her appear publicly, but it hasn't happened yet.

That means nothing. She could have been one of the 50,000 people whom officials acknowledge as having the disease and of the 3800+ people whom they acknowledge as having died from it, and caught it in the normal way.

[Florestan]

Based on my first hand experience with Communist officials, Communist statistics and Communist facts and figures, I don't trust the Chinese officials at all, not even when they say  "Hello, folks, it's a fine day today!" I think their numbers of confirmed cases and deaths are greatly understated. I think they covered up massively the whole bloody mess. I think they are ruthless villains. The scientifically unlikely event that this virus be intentionally man-made and spread would not surprise me at all. Yet I refuse to believe that even they can be that evil.

[greg]

That means nothing. She could have been one of the 50,000 people whom officials acknowledge as having the disease and of the 3800+ people whom they acknowledge as having died from it, and caught it in the normal way.

There is no acknowledgement of her getting the disease... the officials at the lab said that no one got infected. Sure...

They also denied her existence at first but then said she left and was unaccounted for. How do these people work together and not even have each other's contact information? And why no obituary?

But I do see what you mean- it's all about the dates/timing. Not quite sure of the exact dates of the disappearance, just that the studies took place around November and December, so same general timeframe... but I guess her being patient zero completely relies on the lab origin theory being correct.

Also about the wet market, I heard that it was about 50 people who were interviewed and they couldn't confirm that they sold bats there...as well as the CDC unable to confirm it. So no leads there yet.