Coronavirus thread

[Florestan]

Very clever reply, Andrei. You're actually saying  that the Chinese government has made a coverup. But, TBH, we don't know, and probably cannot know (as much as many wish this to be the truth).

Excuse me? The attempt at covering it up right from the beginning is well documented. Have you not heard about the famous Dr. Li and his treatment at the hands of the local CCP officials?

[JBS]

This post explains rather a lot.

Back in the real world, as lockdowns start being lifted a bit in various locales, it is time to revisit some meaningful numbers. 

The observed case fatality ratio of the ten most affected countries, per Johns Hopkins:

Belgium - 15.7%
UK - 15.4%
France - 14.7%
Italy - 13.6%
Netherlands - 12.3%
Spain - 11.5%
Brazil - 7.0%
Iran - 6.4%
US - 5.9%
Germany - 4.1%


The deaths per 100K population are:

Belgium - 67.44
Spain - 52.53
Italy - 46.72
UK - 41.49
France - 36.77
Netherlands - 28.49
US - 19.85
Germany - 8.12
Iran - 7.45
Brazil - 3.06

As the world moves into a nervous summer and probable drops in reported cases and deaths, a few things seem clear before the second wave hits in October/November:

1.) Public health officials from developed nations should consult with Germans.  They did something right.

2.) Belgians have trouble counting.

3.) With the notable exception of Germany, Europe as whole failed.  This is unsurprising.  This should and will have appropriate long-term geopolitical consequences.

I saw figures for deaths per 100k which put Sweden about equal  to or slightly better than the Netherlands, and Finland, Norway, and Denmark close to Germany.

[JBS]

Excuse me? The attempt at covering it up right from the beginning is well documented. Have you not heard about the famous Dr. Li and his treatment at the hands of the local CCP officials?

There seem to be two layers to the problem:  local officials in Wuhan trying to obfuscate information sent to the national level, and the national government's approach to informing the rest of the world. Between the two, we probably will never know.  The Chinese themselves may never know.

[Todd]

I saw figures for deaths per 100k which put Sweden about equal  to or slightly better than the Netherlands, and Finland, Norway, and Denmark close to Germany.

Yes, and Sweden did not lockdown like other countries.  More complete first wave statistics - not just fatalities, of course, but also hospital utilization rates, and the like - are needed to more fully understand the merits and demerits of Sweden's approach before the second wave hits. 

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

I haven't looked through everything here. This has probably come up. But the effect of no publics events on the concert work, especially if it goes for 2 or three years...coupled with the decline of the recording industry. That goes for sports, ballet, etc.
But as classical music is the topic...I just wonder how truly awful it'll be for musicians.

They just cancelled Ravinia for the whole summer:

https://chicagoclassicalreview.com/2020/05/ravinia-cancels-entire-2020-season/

This is a real downer. I had some hope the summer would be somewhat normal and we might be able to go to a concert or two. What this means for the musicians, I don't know. CSO musicians and staff are still being paid, but everyone had to take a cut. How long can this go on?

[Irons]

How does it work where you live Irons?  Do you have to pay an independent company to pick up your trash?  Or do you pay the town? Do they charge much?  Or is it included in your local taxes?  I haven't heard of any waste centers closed around here...some of the smaller towns do have very limited hours and/or days.

Agree with you that it isn't an excuse for fly-tipping!  Just surprised that they would close them at all.  What do you do if you live in a small apartment with a family to *get rid of your recyclables during these times?  Just curious here.  I also read that they might be limiting more of what kind of recyclables that they allow too (see article).
*or temporarily store them

And pleased to hear that that person received actual jail time for doing that!

PD

Included in the rates, P. Which is as you say a local tax. We also (choose to) pay an extra £50 a year for garden waste collection once every two weeks. This is an excellent investment as I add weeds from the allotment too. When overfull I climb into the bin with aid of step ladder and dance on top to compress it down and add more. Time I'm finished it is very heavy!

Rubbish and recyclables are collected on alternate weeks.

[71 dB]

I saw figures for deaths per 100k which put Sweden about equal  to or slightly better than the Netherlands, and Finland, Norway, and Denmark close to Germany.

Deaths per million population

Netherlands - 291
Sweden - 264
Denmark - 82
Germany - 80
Finland - 40
Norway - 39

[Todd]

How long can this go on?

America should be ready for 18 months of shutdowns in 'long, hard road' ahead, warns the Fed's Neel Kashkari

Though not a public health official, I consider Mr Kashkari a serious man who has taken on serious crisis responsibilities in his career.  I expect 18-24 more months.  Maybe more.  I hope I am wrong and it lasts only a few more months. 

[Ratliff]

There seem to be two layers to the problem:  local officials in Wuhan trying to obfuscate information sent to the national level, and the national government's approach to informing the rest of the world. Between the two, we probably will never know.  The Chinese themselves may never know.

By the end of December local health officials knew something alarming was happening, through the middle of January local politicians were trying to suppress the information. By the end of January the national government became aware of the gravity of the situation and took decisive action. On January 28 all travel in and out of the province was shut down and a few days later people were confined to their homes. That was done in full view of the world. By February are 2 the virus was identified and sequencesd, and by February 9 the sequence was published. The National government may be under reporting the number of infected but I see no evidence they under reported the severity of the disease.

You can argue the actions of the provincial government delayed the response by some weeks. The United States had full information about the nature of the disease by February 1  and took nearly two months to take decisive action. In the United States the local authorities were ahead of the federal authorities.

[Que]

Back in the real world, as lockdowns start being lifted a bit in various locales, it is time to revisit some meaningful numbers.

I don't agree these are meaningful numbers.

The current case-fatality ratios are totally unreliable.
Because the number of cases (of infection) is without nation-wide testing a completely wild guess, as is the the number of fatalities -  usualy consisting of confirmed patients dying in hospitals. In time, more accurate numbers can be achieved by comparing estimated infection rates, based on nationwide blood testing on antibodies, with statistically based numbers of excess deaths during the outbreak.

The relative number of deaths in the country is dependent on the initial level and geographical spread of the infection.
A small urbanised country with large outside exposure - like Belgium or the Netherlands (or the State of NY) - will naturally score badly, a big country with large rural areas - like the (entirety of the) US, Brazil or Iran - well score relatively well.
Influencing the death rate, there are probably some predisposed factors linked to the composition of the population, like average age, general health, genetical factors, and possibly previous vaccinations.

The reponses of countries should IMO be judged mainly by looking at the extent and speed in which they were able to contain the spread of the virus.

[Todd]

I don't agree these are meaningful numbers.

Then we will have to agree to disagree, and clearly medical professionals see fit to track the information.  The figures are useful as rolling snapshots as the pandemic develops, and as testing expands the data will change and provide a more useful understanding of what has happened, and may be useful in resource allocation. 

The idea that a small, urbanized country with large outside exposure will naturally score worse does not fit with the data.  South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan have all done a much better job of dealing with the crisis than European countries.  Israel has, too.  The pandemic has exposed some severe flaws in how the West handles medical crises. 

and possibly previous vaccinations.

How does this apply here?

[Todd]

By the end of December local health officials knew something alarming was happening, through the middle of December local politicians were trying to suppress the information. By the end of January the national government became aware of the gravity of the situation and took decisive action. On January 28 all travel in and out of the province was shut down and a few days later people were confined to their homes. That was done in full view of the world. By February are 2 the virus was identified and sequencesd, and by February 9 the sequence was published. The National government may be under reporting the number of infected but I see no evidence they under reported the severity of the disease.

You can argue the actions of the provincial government delayed the response by some weeks. The United States had full information about the nature of the disease by February 1  and took nearly two months to take decisive action. In the United States the local authorities were ahead of the federal authorities.

There is something off about the timeline you describe.

US alerted Israel, NATO to disease outbreak in China in November — TV report

[Ratliff]

There is something off about the timeline you describe.

US alerted Israel, NATO to disease outbreak in China in November — TV report

That is an interesting report (although the supposed source of the intelligence denies it). I have read that CDC officials believe that the first cases were in November or earlier but were not recognized as a new disease at the time. I suspect that intelligence sources may have noticed an uptick in respiratory infections, but that the association with the novel coronavirus came in retrospect.

[Que]

The idea that a small, urbanized country with large outside exposure will naturally score worse does not fit with the data.  South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan have all done a much better job of dealing with the crisis than European countries.  Israel has, too.  The pandemic has exposed some severe flaws in how the West handles medical crises.

Oh, but we agree about that! Fortunately the examples you mention show that even if there are high risk factors, like high outside exposure and urbanisation, containment measures can be very effective. And yes, the entire Western world failed in handling the crisis by being unprepared and too slow. And the US was probably the slowest of them all, especially given the fact that it had a few weeks of foresight about what would happen. My point was that comparing the numbers of a country like Belgium with the entire US doesn't tell you much about the effectiveness of any contaimment measures. A more fair comparison would be with New York. Of the three countries at the bottom of your 100K list - Germany, Brazil and Iran - the last two have actually handled the crisis poorly.

How does this apply here?

There are indications thay being inoculated with certain vaccines creates a hightened resistance against COVID-19.
Mentioned are the vaccine against tuberculosis, even if that is not a virus, but more specifically a vaccine that children get against mumps, measles and ruberalla. Vaccination programmes differ between countries and age groups. So this may be a possible factor.

Q

[Mandryka]

And yes, the entire Western world failed in handling the crisis by being unprepared and too slow.

Q

Apart from Germany

[Que]

Apart from Germany

I've seen several explanations of the positive example of Germany.
It seems to have been a combination of factors: the outbreak came a bit later to Germany than to surrounding countries; the first wave of cases was relatively modest in size and consisted of relatively young people who had been skiing in Austria and Italy; Germany had a large preexisting test capacity and used that right away for testing and tracking patients down and prevent further spreading; Germany has a large (decentralised) and high quality health care system that was sufficiently able to handle patients.

Q

[Jo498]

I think it was a lot of dumb luck. The German minister of Health and most of the experts were asleep at the wheel in January and until late February like almost everyone else.
I am still doubtful about the impact of the diverse lockdown measures (because all these curves are so damn similar, they should be far more diverse depending on when which measure of distancing etc. was established) but another point is probably that the Germans are usually obedient. Lenin famously quipped more than 100 years ago that there would never be a revolution in Germany because Germany would not even step on the lawn if there was a sign forbidding it and this is to a certain extent still true.

[MusicTurner]

Apart from Germany

If forgetting a good deal of other, but smaller countries in the Western World.

[MusicTurner]

I think it was a lot of dumb luck. The German minister of Health and most of the experts were asleep at the wheel in January and until late February like almost everyone else.
I am still doubtful about the impact of the diverse lockdown measures (because all these curves are so damn similar, they should be far more diverse depending on when which measure of distancing etc. was established) but another point is probably that the Germans are usually obedient. Lenin famously quipped more than 100 years ago that there would never be a revolution in Germany because Germany would not even step on the lawn if there was a sign forbidding it and this is to a certain extent still true.

The lockdown measures have saved many 1000s of lives, also due to the heightened awareness among the public, of general safety measures. There's an obvious example up here, by comparing Sweden's death tolls with its neighbouring countries. Sweden has had a different strategy with much less lockdown. Also, its measuring statistics and testings generally leave a lot to be desired by comparison. This in spite of Swedes having likewise a popular, general reputation of being ~obedient people too.

Below, Swedish numbers might very well be considerably larger, whereas the Danish numbers might be slightly lower (since all fatalities with any Corona diagnosis are counted here in Denmark).

Updates: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Swedish numbers during weekends tend to be low, since the reporting system is slow on those days)

[Herman]

I think it was a lot of dumb luck. The German minister of Health and most of the experts were asleep at the wheel in January and until late February like almost everyone else.
[...] another point is probably that the Germans are usually obedient. Lenin famously quipped more than 100 years ago that there would never be a revolution in Germany

It helped, I guess, that Merkel is a good leader who explained the benefits of lockdown well.

The other thing of course is that Germany had big reserves in hospital beds.