Coronavirus thread

[drogulus]

I like that you are making up your own theory on this. Would be kinda funny if we found out patient zero wasn't from the lab or the market. 

      It will be hilarious. But whether it's true or not, it's very likely. The bat caves are located some distance from Wuhan in southern China. These bats didn't go on holiday in Wuhan.

[drogulus]

(https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/)

So according to your man, casually dressed tourists inched through tight rock crevasses on their stomachs and found themselves in the same place as the researchers. Feel free to believe that. I can't and I don't.

[***] I can help:

Her inaugural cave was typical of the region: large, rich in limestone columns and—as a popular tourist destination—easily accessible. "It was spellbinding," Shi recalls. Milky-white stalactites hung from the ceiling like icicles, glistening with moisture.

     That's from the paragraph just above your quote. The bat lady, in search of more bats, went beyond the accessible area to hard to reach places.

[Mandryka]

Another case of exceptionalism?

"A shambles of mixed messaging, poor organisation and a complacent attitude that what was happening in Italy wouldn't happen here."

Expert advisers that are not convinced of lockdown as a necessary measure doesn't help either.....

Plus, once you are - literally - "behind the curve" and scrambling to handle the situation, many more mistakes and mishaps are bound to pile up.

Q

I know, it's bad.

[drogulus]

     Tests Show Coronavirus Was Spreading in Europe Late Last Year, Weeks Earlier Than Thought

"Of the 24 patients, we had one positive result for COVID-19 on Dec. 27, when he was in hospital with us," he said, adding that the test had been repeated several times to confirm the result.

      Oh OK, the virus was in Europe before it was in the Wuhan lab. Is this time travel?

     

[Florestan]

     Terminally beliefy people like your good self have difficulty processing information. I can help:

Actually [* * *]. But not before reading this:

But the holidaylike atmosphere soon dissipated. Many bats—including several insect-eating species of horseshoe bats that are abundant in southern Asia—roost in deep, narrow caves on steep terrain. Often guided by tips from local villagers, Shi and her colleagues had to hike for hours to potential sites and inch through tight rock crevasses on their stomachs. And the flying mammals can be elusive. In one frustrating week, the team explored more than 30 caves and saw only a dozen bats.

and understanding that the probability that a full bunch of casual tourists encountered bats in those caves at the same time and in the same place as the researchers (which is what the NPR man claimed) approaches zero.

[Todd]

5064 tax agencies in the US are now closed to the public.  That count is up 628 from last week.  No tax agencies have reopened to the public, even in states that have started to reopen other parts of the economy.

[Irons]

They have a very different demography, far fewer people >70 yo that make up most of the deaths. And it could be the climate if the virus like similar ones is destroyed quickly by sun/UV rays or also higher temperatures. Then there could be better immunity among people having grown up and living in less sanitzed conditions. Finally, the medical and administrative systems of most of these countries are so underdeveloped that they simply cannot test and evaluate enough, so the data are certainly not very reliable.

You make some valid points. It was reported that in the UK a third of patients suffering from Covid-19 are either black or Asian. OK, it could be due that this demographic is living in deprived areas of the UK but I think something else is going on. The figures seem to point that a black or Asian is in greater danger of falling to the virus at their adopted country in Europe or US. India is a hotbed where social distancing is impossible. I expected a huge outbreak of Coronavirus which with unreliable data or no has not taken place. 

[Irons]

Good question Irons!  I'm trying to look into it .....so far found this about testing across Africa.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52478344

I'm not so certain that they've gotten off lightly though...

Would need to know and compare rates of testing in the various countries vs. other non-African countries...also percentage of population testing positive...density of population in different areas, etc.  Also, how well they've been keeping track of who has been infected by it and who has died from it.  And how they've been trying to keep it from spreading.

So far, found this re India:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52505436

PD

Thanks, P. I found the India link particularly interesting.

[Todd]

Seattle's Leaders Let Scientists Take the Lead. New York's Did Not

In early March, as Dow Constantine was asking Microsoft to close its offices and putting scientists in front of news cameras, de Blasio and New York's governor, Andrew Cuomo, were giving speeches that deëmphasized the risks of the pandemic, even as the city was announcing its first official cases. De Blasio initially voiced caution, saying that "no one should take the coronavirus situation lightly," but soon told residents to keep helping the city's economy. "Go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus," he tweeted on March 2nd—one day after the first COVID-19 diagnosis in New York. He urged people to see a movie at Lincoln Center. On the day that Seattle schools closed, de Blasio said at a press conference that "if you are not sick, if you are not in the vulnerable category, you should be going about your life." Cuomo, meanwhile, had told reporters that "we should relax." He said that most infected people would recover with few problems, adding, "We don't even think it's going to be as bad as it was in other countries."

Yep, it's all Trump's fault.

Jeffrey Shaman, a disease modeller at Columbia, said, "All you had to do was look at the West Coast, and you knew it was coming for us. That's why Seattle and San Francisco and Portland were shutting things down." But New York "dithered instead of telling people to stay home."

Portland only shutdown after Governor Kate Brown gave the order.  The press conference the Friday night before her decision was one of the most ridiculous things I've seen.  She dithered, and said her action was an order and a campaign.  Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler looked like he wanted to stab her in the eyeball.  Over the weekend, dozens of mayors signed on to a shutdown, forcing her hand.  Fortunately, the area's two largest private employers - Nike and Intel - had already switched to remote work for almost all non-manufacturing jobs, and many other employers already had as well.

[drogulus]

Actually [* * *]. But not before reading this:

But the holidaylike atmosphere soon dissipated. Many bats—including several insect-eating species of horseshoe bats that are abundant in southern Asia—roost in deep, narrow caves on steep terrain. Often guided by tips from local villagers, Shi and her colleagues had to hike for hours to potential sites and inch through tight rock crevasses on their stomachs. And the flying mammals can be elusive. In one frustrating week, the team explored more than 30 caves and saw only a dozen bats.

and understanding that the probability that a full bunch of casual tourists encountered bats in those caves at the same time and in the same place as the researchers (which is what the NPR man claimed) approaches zero.

     The bats don't wait for researchers to show up to infect people. And they could be local "bat guides", not tourists. Of course an unlucky tourist might have been infected, but I'll put my fiat currency on a local bat guide. Is that too communistic for you?

     I have an idea. Read the whole article. Try to construct a timeline with facts in it. The Wuhan lab got patient samples on Dec. 30. Bats are not patients, people are. No matter how badly the lab had handled previous viruses, if they did, it strikes me as highly implausible that the new virus escaped the lab before it got there. Is there a belief for that? Do ChiCom labs have super powers like gods?

[JBS]

     The bats don't wait for researchers to show up to infect people. And they could be local "bat guides", not tourists. Of course an unlucky tourist might have been infected, but I'll put my fiat currency on a local bat guide. Is that too communistic for you?

     I have an idea. Read the whole article. Try to construct a timeline with facts in it. The Wuhan lab got patient samples on Dec. 30. Bats are not patients, people are. No matter how badly the lab had handled previous viruses, if they did, it strikes me as highly implausible that the new virus escaped the lab before it got there. Is there a belief for that? Do ChiCom labs have super powers like gods?

You are also assuming that the Chinese officials who say the virus was not present in the lab are telling the truth. They may be, but given the nature of Chinese bureaucracy, that's not a sure thing.

Besides which, the local health officials who sent the mystery samples to be analyzed would have no idea that the virus was originally at the lab, if it was there. They labelled the samples as "mystery virus" because from their vantage point, that's exactly what it was.

[Florestan]

     The bats don't wait for researchers to show up to infect people. And they could be local "bat guides", not tourists. Of course an unlucky tourist might have been infected, but I'll put my fiat currency on a local bat guide. [...]

     I have an idea. Read the whole article.

I have an even better idea. You read this:

I heard an interview on NPR with a man who had been present during some "bat retrieving" in the caves. He said the lab people wore full protective gear. Alas, the cave was also full of tourists dressed in casual holiday clothes with no protective gear whatever. So, of course it must be the researchers. Conspiracy logic demands it.

Capisci? The cave where researchers fetched the bats was also full of tourists dressed in casual holiday clothes. That is what the man on the NPR claimed, implying that any one of these tourists could have been infected by bats, not only the researchers. He says nothing at all about local bat guides. (So much for me having difficulties processing information and being in the need of your help.)

What I did was simply to point out, based on the Scientific American article, that it would have been highly unlikely for a single tourist dressed in casual holiday clothes, let alone a full bunch of them, to access the remote and rather inaccessible places where bats are usually found at the same time as the researchers did. The man's claim is most probably bogus.

Then came you of all people to accuse me of being... what, "terminally beliefy"? One helluva nerve you've got to make such an accusation, you who believe wholly and unconditionally and without as much as a blinking of an eye everything that the Chinese propaganda spouts urbi et orbi.

You know what? I've really had enough of you. Off to my ignore list you go, the first and probably the only person to sit there.

[drogulus]

You are also assuming that the Chinese officials who say the virus was not present in the lab are telling the truth. They may be, but given the nature of Chinese bureaucracy, that's not a sure thing

Besides which, the local health officials who sent the mystery samples to be analyzed would have no idea that the virus was originally at the lab, if it was there. They labelled the samples as "mystery virus" because from their vantage point, that's exactly what it was.

     I don't care about what Chinese officials say, I do care what the chief researcher said, which will not be contradicted because she told the truth. She said the virus was new, and it's newness holds up because a new sickness was spreading immediately before the samples arrived. So you have the new sickness, a virus subsequently determined to be unlike what the lab already had. Until new evidence refutes this narrative, it's bulletproof.

I have an even better idea. You read this:

     I did read that article more than once. NPR guy says here was there in a cave with casually dressed tourists and researchers in full protective gear. The context makes it clear he wasn't in an inaccessible area. There isn't much there to prompt the accusation of lying, or a motivation for doing so.

One helluva nerve you've got to make such an accusation, you who believe wholly and unconditionally and without as much as a blinking of an eye everything that the Chinese propaganda spouts urbi et orbi.

     That's me in a nutshell, a communist propagandist all the way down. All power to the Soviets! Hail Satan, personal friend of mine!

[drogulus]

     I don't think the best response to Chinese Communist propaganda is Trumpist propaganda. Our side should consider a regard for truth as an advantage over beliefy shit.

     It's not too late to start being trustworthy. If China won't allow an impartial investigation into the origins of the outbreak, does that mean we shouldn't do it either? The Trumpeo approach gives people no reason to prefer the US to the Commies. Withdrawing from the WHO because of Chinese influence magnifies Chinese influence. How braindead is that?

[Florestan]

Just to be clear: I don't subscribe to the notion that the virus is man-made and was released intentionally. All I'm saying is that the notion that it mutated inside the Wuhan lab and was released accidentally cannot be dismissed out of hand on the sole ground of what Chinese officials, including lab officials, say. To do so would be the top of gullibility. Actually, given tne nature, aims and methods of the CCP, a reverse presumption of innocence is the most healthy and rational position: every statement, information or statistics that comes from Chinese officials and Chinese official media should be considered at best incomplete/doubtful and at worst inaccurate/false unless proven right by an independent third party.

[JBS]

     I don't care about what Chinese officials say, I do care what the chief researcher said, which will not be contradicted because she told the truth. She said the virus was new, and it's newness holds up because a new sickness was spreading immediately before the samples arrived. So you have the new sickness, a virus subsequently determined to be unlike what the lab already had. Until new evidence refutes this narrative, it's bulletproof.
!

The researcher is a Chinese official...or at least heavily dependent on Chinese officials whom she needs to keep herself in the position of chief researcher. Therefore anything she says ought to be treated with the skepticism with which anything said by Chinese officials  in any context  should be treated.

So it's hardly bulletproof.

Noting the fact that Chinese bureaucrats  don't have a strict allegiance to telling the truth is not Trumpian propaganda.

[Florestan]

The researcher is a Chinese official...or at least heavily dependent on Chinese officials whom she needs to keep herself in the position of chief researcher. Therefore anything she says ought to be treated with the skepticism with which anything said by Chinese officials  in any context  should be treated.

So it's hardly bulletproof.

Noting the fact that Chinese bureaucrats  don't have a strict allegiance to telling the truth is not Trumpian propaganda.

Agreed on all accounts, not that I have any merit in so doing. It's just plain common sense and I'm greatly puzzled that people who purport to be rational, objective and hard-facts-based can be so gullible when it comes to Chinese propaganda.

[SimonNZ]

Nobody here is following Chinese propaganda. They're following reporting that treats the Chinese government with skepticism but still finds that the origin of the virus was unlikely to have been the lab.

[drogulus]

The researcher is a Chinese official...or at least heavily dependent on Chinese officials whom she needs to keep herself in the position of chief researcher.

     I don't buy this. Scientists communicate with each other across national and ideological boundaries far more than Communists or Trumpists would want. The chatter intelligence officials would rely on as evidence of a coverup never occurred, which itself is evidence.

All I'm saying is that the notion that it mutated inside the Wuhan lab and was released accidentally cannot be dismissed out of hand on the sole ground of what Chinese officials, including lab officials, say.

     This story is false without being dismissed out of hand. It's false because no evidence supports the claim that the lab had the virus before they are known to have acquired it, because the reputation of the chief researcher remains unsullied, because the virus has a history of spread that makes the weakass lab theory utterly superfluous except as propaganda, and because even Communist hacks can't control scientists and keep them from leaking the truth about something so dangerous and central to their mission.

     

Nobody here is following Chinese propaganda. They're following reporting that treats the Chinese government with skepticism but still finds that the origin of the virus was unlikely to have been the lab.

     The idea that only Chinese propaganda makes the lab release story improbable and superfluous to the origin of the pandemic is plain silly. Natural spread from animal to human hosts is how the samples got to the lab. We don't need a bonus explanation on top of that.

[drogulus]

     In Massachusetts we have 86 deaths today and 1000 new cases. That looks like a significant slowdown for both.