Coronavirus thread

[Todd]

Even Europe's gold standard nations are struggling with Covid surges, and it's not winter yet

[drogulus]

     

     

     

[Mandryka]

Even Europe's gold standard nations are struggling with Covid surges, and it's not winter yet

This seems true

Which brings us back to the rock and the hard place where governments find themselves: the only way to guarantee reducing infection rates is to lock people down, yet every lockdown carries the risk of public fatigue leading to a lack of compliance.

And that non commitment on the part of the public means that you can't ever come out of hard lockdown, or you have to turn the country into a sort of health police state, which may itself not be tolerated.

The problem is that lockdown is the only solution being considered, and as a way of dealing with the disease it's too painful to endure. The cure is worse than the disease.  The medical solution will be slow to come, and the money to finance the fallout of lockdown will run out fast,  and anyway the people won't tolerate being forced to let their lives stagnate. And all this for what exactly?

Quite scary though, when you open your eyes to the situation we find ourselves in. I confess to being thoroughly scared by it.

[Que]

Even Europe's gold standard nations are struggling with Covid surges, and it's not winter yet

Yep, the whole thing is going sideways......

Though I wouldn't describe The Netherlands and the Czech Republic as "golden standard nations"

That title goes to Germany, which still does extremely well.
It has an extensive and rigorous test & trace system and benefited from starting out with a low and localised infection level.

Test and trace capacity and organisation is a failure in many countries, including the Netherlands.
That and a reluctance to take really strict measures is doing us in.... It's going to be bad,  economically as well.

Q

[Mandryka]

 I'm not sure I understand what's happening in Germany. I mean, the Germans went on holiday to Spain in July and August and brought the disease back home. Are German universities and high schools open? Do Germans behave better in pubs and parties? In the UK only 20% of people say they comply with requests to self isolate - are Germans more committed and cooperative? Yes they had a better test and trace infrastructure, but all the testing and tracing in the world is useless if the people can't or won't cooperate!

[prémont]

That title goes to Germany, which still does extremely well.

The Scandinavian countries (except Sweden) are indeed doing better than Germany, but of course we are not that many.

[Todd]

That and a reluctance to take really strict measures is doing us in.... It's going to be bad,  economically as well.

2021 is already shot.  Some/many/most people want to pretend otherwise.  I'd say 2022 is pretty much toast, too, from both an economic and public health perspective.  Maybe even 2023.  No one, anywhere, has described in detail how widespread, effective vaccination programs combined with proper, societal-scale social distancing will work effectively for long periods with a disease that mutates, transmits quickly and efficiently, will likely require ongoing boosters to maintain immunity, and will become endemic to humanity. 

The complete destruction of some service industries all over the world combined with a mandatory shift to remote work in many sectors will serve to exacerbate inequality across the entire West.  Expect political turmoil across the "developed" world in the next several years.

[Mandryka]

2021 is already shot.  Some/many/most people want to pretend otherwise.  I'd say 2022 is pretty much toast, too, from both an economic and public health perspective.  Maybe even 2023.  No one, anywhere, has described in detail how widespread, effective vaccination programs combined with proper, societal-scale social distancing will work effectively for long periods with a disease that mutates, transmits quickly and efficiently, will likely require ongoing boosters to maintain immunity, and will will become endemic to humanity. 

The complete destruction of some service industries all over the world combined with a mandatory shift to remote work in many sectors will serve to exacerbate inequality across the entire West.  Expect political turmoil across the "developed" world in the next several years.

Expect social turmoil too.

[T. D.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-11/coronavirus-can-persist-for-four-weeks-on-banknotes-study-finds

And many non-porous surfaces, esp. at lower temperatures.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/wisconsin-is-battling-americas-worst-coronavirus-outbreak-and-the-states-broken-politics-is-partially-to-blame-143650745.html

[drogulus]

     The worst mutations of the virus will turn out to be the ones that spread around the world in early 2020. By late 2021 we should be seeing the effects of herd immunity for these strains and that will provide protection for new ones. People will get sick with fewer hospitalizations and death rates will continue to go down.

     This is a pessimistic view of recovery for the US:

     

     This should look familiar as it's not so different from the Obama recovery that Trump inherited.

[prémont]

     The worst mutations of the virus will turn out to be the ones that spread around the world in early 2020. By late 2021 we should be seeing the effects of herd immunity for these strains and that will provide protection for new ones. People will get sick with fewer hospitalizations and death rates will continue to go down.

I worship your optimistic approach, but how do you know that we are not going to see even worse mutiations of the virus in the future.

And heard immunity (without a vaccine) is only achieved when a large part of the population has been infected and this will cause a lot of deaths, apart from the fact that we do not know how long postinfective immunity lasts.

But again I worship your optimism.

[drogulus]

I worship your optimistic approach, but how do you know that we are not going to see even worse mutiations of the virus in the future.

     We might see a mutation that would have been worse if it had been the first one we contracted. More worrisome would be another novel virus genetically dissimilar to this one.

And heard immunity (without a vaccine) is only achieved when a large part of the population has been infected and this will cause a lot of deaths, apart from the fact that we do not know how long postinfective immunity lasts.

     Herd immunity includes the vaccine. While immunity might fade, it won't disappear, so reinfected people won't get as sick, if they get sick at all.

[prémont]

We might see a mutation that would have been worse if it had been the first one we contracted. More worrisome would be another novel virus genetically dissimilar to this one.

Since many mammals seem to be susceptible to this virus, we might well soon see a more virulent mutation of Covid Sars2 originating in another animal and afterwards infecting humans.

Herd immunity includes the vaccine. While immunity might fade, it won't disappear, so reinfected people won't get as sick, if they get sick at all.

Hope you are right. Certainly your prediction depends upon the existence of an efficient vaccine, which is capable of creating a sufficient immune response in humans. We have no guarantee of this.

[drogulus]

Hope you are right. Certainly your prediction depends upon the existence of an efficient vaccine, which is capable of creating a sufficient immune response in humans. We have no guarantee of this.

     The vaccine will be kind of mediocre, and not for Trumpist reasons, but because vaccines often are. It would be great if it was 70%, but I think they are targeting a minimum of 50%, which will work fine.

[T. D.]

Typical Orange Pustule Big Lie:

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54504096

Top US government scientist Anthony Fauci has said a clip of him used in a Trump campaign advert is misleading.

In it, Dr Fauci says he "can't imagine that anybody could be doing more" to fight Covid-19, suggesting he endorses Mr Trump's handling of the crisis.

Dr Fauci, who clashed with Mr Trump before on Covid, says he was talking about himself and other officials.

The infectious diseases expert said he had never publicly endorsed any political candidate.

[Todd]

Typical Orange Pustule Big Lie:

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54504096

Top US government scientist Anthony Fauci has said a clip of him used in a Trump campaign advert is misleading.

In it, Dr Fauci says he "can't imagine that anybody could be doing more" to fight Covid-19, suggesting he endorses Mr Trump's handling of the crisis.

Dr Fauci, who clashed with Mr Trump before on Covid, says he was talking about himself and other officials.

The infectious diseases expert said he had never publicly endorsed any political candidate.

Is this a Coronavirus post or a US Politics post?

[Karl Henning]

Of course, some do have an insatiable appetite for Trumpland Fake News.

[drogulus]

Is this a Coronavirus post or a US Politics post?

     I think so.

[Karl Henning]

     I think so.

A lesson to us all: once a Diner Cop, you may never unclench.

[71 dB]

Is this a Coronavirus post or a US Politics post?

How can you tell when Covid-19 was so completely politicized in the US?