Coronavirus thread

[Iota]

This seems an interesting idea from Tony Blair -


Coronavirus: Vaccinate more people with one dose, urges Tony Blair

Mr Blair told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that although "you really need the two doses... the first dose gives you substantial immunity".

He argued there was a "strong case for not holding back the second doses of the vaccine" and instead using those batches to give a greater number of people the first dose.

His proposal was backed up by Professor David Salisbury, the man in charge of immunisation at the Department of Health until 2013.

He told Today the numbers were "straightforward".

"You give one dose you get 91% [protection] you give two doses and you get 95% - you are only gaining 4% for giving the second dose," he said.

"With current circumstances, I would strongly urge you to use as many first doses as you possibly can for risk groups and only after you have done all of that come back with second doses."



On the subject of the new variant spreading in the UK at the moment, it's being said that it may have originated in another country, and was only picked up on here because of Britain's world-leading genetic sequencing capabilities. Suggesting that it may already be spreading in other countries and just not spotted yet.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

All true. Johnson announced to the country "Have a merry little Christmas" with those words ringing in our ears, we like ten of thousands of others ordered a £50 turkey plus all that goes with it. I am no fan of Kier Starmer but he is running rings around Johnson on this issue. He warned Christmas may be forced to be shelved and Johnson ridiculed him only for days later to come to the same decision. I have an extremely unhappy wife who will not see her grandchildren and I will be eating turkey sandwiches through 2021!

I'm so sorry to hear this.  It must be hard for all of your family.  Regarding food...a couple of ideas:  make some creamed turkey and serve in puff pastry...and if you have the room in the freezer:  make some turkey pot pies and freeze them or figure out a safe way to share them with your kids?  Let me know what you are trying to figure out how to use/save and I'd be happy to offer some suggestions.  Do you have much freezer room? Or perhaps possibly share some food and maybe some perishables with either neighbors or an organization that feeds people in need?  I know, this is a horrible season for everyone; just trying to offer some suggestions (which you have probably already thought of).

Best wishes,

PD

[Mandryka]

Astonished to find today that the Biotime Innova test is allowed as a passport for people in the UK to enter France. Why am I astonished? Because mass testing trials in Liverpool found that that particular test has a false negative rate of about 60%. I just feel as though the world's going mad.

https://uk.ambafrance.org/List-of-antigen-tests-authorized-for-entry-to-France-from-UK-29434

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2020/12/23/covid-19-liverpool-community-testing-pilot-interim-findings-published/

[Que]

I just feel as though the world's going mad.

I'm afraid it is not just a feeling! 

New strains are discovered in the UK, and borders were closed.
But as it turns out they are not discovered because they originate in the UK, but because the Brits use gene sequencing techniques that can detect them.

Let's hope that the vaccines that have now been developed will be able to cover all new strains, or else we are back to square one... Or square -5 if a more deadly strain occurs...

Q

[steve ridgway]

We noticed driving back through a town in Cheshire this morning that a big store had done what we'd thought earlier and put big sale signs up realising they now had one day to shift stock before being closed for who knows how long.

[Karl Henning]

Ach!

[SimonNZ]

The Mysterious Link Between COVID-19 and Sleep
The coronavirus can cause insomnia and long-term changes in our nervous systems. But sleep could also be a key to ending the pandemic.

[steve ridgway]

Interesting article. I'm all in favour of sleep so this is very encouraging.

[SimonNZ]

Has anyone seen this documentary?:

Hidden Gem: '76 Days' Examines the Human Cost of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Wuhan, China
Chinese-American director Hao Wu's documentary captures ground zero for COVID-19 as intensive care units are pushed to the breaking point: "My intention was for the audience to be immersed."

[Irons]

I'm so sorry to hear this.  It must be hard for all of your family.  Regarding food...a couple of ideas:  make some creamed turkey and serve in puff pastry...and if you have the room in the freezer:  make some turkey pot pies and freeze them or figure out a safe way to share them with your kids?  Let me know what you are trying to figure out how to use/save and I'd be happy to offer some suggestions.  Do you have much freezer room? Or perhaps possibly share some food and maybe some perishables with either neighbors or an organization that feeds people in need?  I know, this is a horrible season for everyone; just trying to offer some suggestions (which you have probably already thought of).

Best wishes,

PD

Thanks for suggestions, P. As often the case yesterday turned out better then expected. We had a 3.5 kg turkey roll (bird would have been difficult) on order from local butchers. After cutting off a third for Christmas dinner and cold boxing day the rest is residing in the freezer. I was tempted to break the rules but glad I didn't. Cold, but a lovely day, we enjoyed a long walk, had zoom with the family and watched three episodes of "The King's Gambit" in the evening. So, quiet but nice. Trust you had an enjoyable day too.

[Mandryka]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/25/uk-scientists-trial-drug-to-prevent-coronavirus-infection-leading-to-disease

UK scientists trial drug to prevent infection that leads to Covid
Exclusive: Antibody therapy could confer instant immunity to Covid-19 on at-risk groups

[Karl Henning]

U.K. variant of coronavirus continues global spread, despite containment efforts

[Holden]

This is the first time I've looked at this thread since the beginning of the outbreak. My reason for not reading or contributing is quite simple. Too much misinformation is posted from unreliable/unchecked sources. For example, a few pages back, someone posted that the virus has killed five times as many people as the 'flu. That statement was not supported by any source material but that is immaterial as it was likely to have been conjecture. I would dispute that statement anyway for a variety of reasons but am not going to do so at this point.

Here in Australia, the virus appears to be virtually non-existent but this doesn't stop the media from talking it up. Headlines state that two new cases have appeared in Queensland (WOW - TWO!!!!!) and then as an afterthought we are told that they are from people who are already in managed isolation, both of whom recently returned from overseas. This is hardly earth shattering and I shake my head when I hear/read it. Unless it's a major outbreak and people are being hospitalised/dying it's just journalistic fluff.

What the media should be doing is asking some important questions - well, important to me anyway.

The first question is:

"Are we taking the correct approach in dealing with Covid19?" Maybe this could be better asked as "are we being reactive or proactive" and the answer to that is obvious. So at what point do we switch from being reactive to being proactive and what form should this proactivity take?

The second question is one regarding demographics. "Who are the most seriously affected and most likely to die or suffer long term health effects?" This is not published anywhere by our media despite it being readily from many government websites.

The third question is: "What percentage of cases occur where people who are infected have mild to absolutely no symptoms whatsoever?" Once again, the answer is available from government websites. This question relates back to what I was talking about in the second paragraph of this post.

The last question is, I believe, the most important of the lot and should determine our approach to handling Covid19. Is Covid19 (or its variants) going to disappear? If the answer is no then that has major ramifications for the future.

One final point I'd like to make. Please don't assume that because I've raised these questions that I am a Covid19 denier. Also, please don't put words in my mouth. For example, recently I've had people accuse me of being right wing/conservative/Trumpian simply because I've raised a few questions about their point of view. Their response has been a "if you don't agree with me then you must be on the other side approach". All I am doing is asking questions. Perhaps their response is a way of not having to think or provide a considered opinion.

[MusicTurner]

(...) Too much misinformation is posted from unreliable/unchecked sources. For example, a few pages back, someone posted that the virus has killed five times as many people as the 'flu. That statement was not supported by any source material but that is immaterial as it was likely to have been conjecture. I would dispute that statement anyway for a variety of reasons but am not going to do so at this point.

I posted very briefly about the flu study to inform about an overall comparison, knowing that it was rather vague. There are many utterances on the web saying that the virus is just like the flu, and this contradicts it. I tend to trust Danish studies, but I also just referred to Danish sources, knowing that almost all readers wouldn't be interested in reading it in detail, or using google for translating it. Or maybe be that interested in the details. Hence the brevity.
Here's the source, BTW including a further link to a peer-reviewed article in English https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-12-06-dansk-studie-saetter-tal-pa-covid-19-er-mere-dodelig-end-influenza

The second question is one regarding demographics. "Who are the most seriously affected and most likely to die or suffer long term health effects?" This is not published anywhere by our media despite it being readily from many government websites.

There really are tons of information available in the media about this, at least in countries hit harder, including mine. I also think there are some entries in the thread here, but don't think I've posted it myself. But long-time effects and the multiple, possible side effects still aren't known or sufficiently mapped yet, there is too much diverse info so far. Maybe the media picture is just different in Australia, but you'll have the advantage of easily finding other sources in English at least.

I think the media in my country overall has taken a both informative and constructive approach to the subject, the problems being mainly 1) information overflow and lack of final, scientific results 2) a certain dystopian/sensationalist approach at times, BUT it could have been much worse.

[Holden]

I posted very briefly about the flu study to inform about an overall comparison, knowing that it was rather vague. There are many utterances on the web saying that the virus is just like the flu, and this contradicts it. I tend to trust Danish studies, but I also just referred to Danish sources, knowing that almost all readers wouldn't be interested in reading it in detail, or using google for translating it. Or maybe be that interested in the details. Hence the brevity.
Here's the source, BTW including a further link to a peer-reviewed article in English https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-12-06-dansk-studie-saetter-tal-pa-covid-19-er-mere-dodelig-end-influenza

There really are tons of information available in the media about this, at least in countries hit harder, including mine. I also think there are some entries in the thread here, but don't think I've posted it myself. But long-time effects and the multiple, possible side effects still aren't known or sufficiently mapped yet, there is to much diverse info so far. Maybe the media picture is just different in Australia, but you'll have the advantage of easily finding other sources in English at least.

I think the media in my country overall has taken a both informative and constructive approach to the subject, the problems being mainly 1) information overflow and lack of final, scientific results 2) a certain dystopian/sensationalist approach at times, BUT it could have been much worse.

I'd extend that to include the English speaking media and it didn't occur to me that your sources would be in Danish so I agree that quoting references in this case would be pointless. Thanks for the link anyway.

One of my reasons for questioning that Covid19 is five times more prevalent than the flu came from some research that I did early on. I was looking at the mortality rate from influenza in Australia over the past decade and comparing that rate with Covid. My major source was an Australian government statistics website. Where the figures were given regarding deaths from the 'flu, the authors published an interesting disclaimer. They said that these figures came from cases that were officially/medically determined to have been the result of the 'flu and because of this the figures were likely to be very much higher. It was all dependent on what was written as the 'cause of death' on the death certificate Only those cases where influenza was specifically mentioned on that certificate were included. I could surmise from that if causes such as respiratory failure, pneumonia or similar were what was recorded then they were not included as part of the official influenza death toll.

This leads to another question: Is the converse true for Covid19? Does a patient who is diagnosed with coronavirus get Covid automatically listed as the cause of death? Would this be the case if a patient, with a history of coronary problems has had a fatal heart attack? At what point is coronavirus responsible and not natural causes? Did Covid19 cause the heart attack or was this likely to have happened anyway? The only way to really tell would be an autopsy and what's the likelihood of that happening?

This goes back to you mentioning people comparing Covid19 and the 'flu and that the two shouldn't be compared. While I agree that the two are very different, there are a number of similarities that would lead people to think that they are virtually the same. Transmission is effected by the same process (aerosol or surface contamination) and both mainly kill by compromising the respiratory system.

[SimonNZ]

There has been a wealth of informed and informative reporting on the virus over the last year. i don't know why you'd say there hasn't been. Does "misinformation" mean to you anything that doesn't mirror your view that its no worse than the flu and all a big overreaction? All the questions you asked in your previous post have been extensively examined and answered in the reporting.

Merely two cases in managed isolation is something to celebrate not mock, and is something that right now many countries can only dream of and would take as a godsend. And is the fragile result of the vigilant around the clock work of a great many professionals, and easily undermined if taken as indifferently or frivolously as you are.

[MusicTurner]

The Danish study compares data from covid this year with the flu average of 2017-2020, cf. the link. Mortality might be somewhat less now due to improving corona treatments, it is also said there.

I meant that the fatality rate of the virus and the flu isn't the same, not that they aren't comparable. Especially in the beginning, or say from Bolsonaro, Trump or Lukashenko, you'd hear a lot about the virus just being another flu and not particularly more lethal, etc. Which science will disprove.

The reporting systems regarding the cause of death vary somewhat between countries - obviously, when medical/diagnostic ressources are low, the diagnosis may be wrong, or there may be a pressure to lower the numbers to avoid criticism or panic, and call the virus 'pneumonia' in stead. This is apparently happening quite often in some countries, for example Russia etc. etc. (any striving to inflate the numbers seems much rarer, if existing at all). But in DK, at least 95% of the registered corona fatalities are also due to getting the disease specifically. This from the highest official, at a live nationwide press conference including ministers (I mentioned that quite a while ago). And in quite a lot of the hit countries (including for example Sweden), there's also a much-above-average number of deaths generally this year, traceable to the disease outbreak. In Sweden, November was the deadliest in 102 years, since the Spanish Flu in 1918.

[SimonNZ]

don't know if I posted it already, but one interesting thing that came from winter being in the middle of the year down here:

Covid-19: 'Near extinction' of influenza in NZ due to lockdown - epidemiologist

"Mask wearing and social distancing for Covid-19 has all but cut influenza cases in New Zealand this year, with only six flu isolates detected in this country from April to August.

Public health physician and epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker offered RNZ National's Sunday Morning programme his analysis on the flu season numbers and why masks continue to be so important.

He said there has been "near extinction of influenza in New Zealand following our very effective Covid-19 response", as numbers vanished from the two standard systems for surveillance - resulting in a 99.8 percent reduction in flu cases.

According to Baker, there were usually 1600 more deaths in winter, compared to other seasons, and around a third of those were caused by influenza, mostly in older people with long-term health conditions."[...]


same story in The Lancet:

Reduced mortality in New Zealand during the COVID-19 pandemic

[Karl Henning]

don't know if I posted it already, but one interesting thing that came from winter being in the middle of the year down here:

Covid-19: 'Near extinction' of influenza in NZ due to lockdown - epidemiologist

"Mask wearing and social distancing for Covid-19 has all but cut influenza cases in New Zealand this year, with only six flu isolates detected in this country from April to August.

Public health physician and epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker offered RNZ National's Sunday Morning programme his analysis on the flu season numbers and why masks continue to be so important.

He said there has been "near extinction of influenza in New Zealand following our very effective Covid-19 response", as numbers vanished from the two standard systems for surveillance - resulting in a 99.8 percent reduction in flu cases.

According to Baker, there were usually 1600 more deaths in winter, compared to other seasons, and around a third of those were caused by influenza, mostly in older people with long-term health conditions."[...]


same story in The Lancet:

Reduced mortality in New Zealand during the COVID-19 pandemic

Well done.

[MusicTurner]

Yes, we haven't had above average total mortality this year up here either, which is considered to be a result and success of the restriction policies & responsible behaviour.