Coronavirus thread

[BasilValentine]

Does « obviate some of our  . . . antibody drugs » mean « make the vaccines less effective »? In Europe we're being told there's no evidence for this at all.

I'd guess no. I believe that statement refers to monoclonal antibody treatments, meaning administering antibodies taken from someone who has had the virus and recovered. The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are MRNA vaccines, which is something else altogether.

[Karl Henning]

[Mass.] Governor Charlie Baker said Thursday that the state is extending by at least two weeks the capacity restrictions on various industries and limits on indoor and outdoor gatherings to combat the spread of COVID-19.

[Karl Henning]

I hope some people make the time to read that. It's very well written and there's much more to it than the title suggests.

I shall read it.

[krummholz]

I'd guess no. I believe that statement refers to monoclonal antibody treatments, meaning administering antibodies taken from someone who has had the virus and recovered. The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are MRNA vaccines, which is something else altogether.

A nit here: I think you're confusing monoclonal antibodies with convalescent plasma. As I understand it, monoclonal antibodies are produced in the laboratory by cloning specific kinds of white blood cells.

Both are very different from a vaccine.

[MusicTurner]

Health authorities now saying here in DK that all inhabitants will have had the option of a complete, double vaccine around the 27th of June. Good news, and earlier than previously expected. They'll be introducing vaccine passes/proofs too. Probably info that is comparable for several other EU countries as well.

Increased local restrictions also working so far, infections going down it seems, to maybe 50% of the maximum, though the numbers generally, and also fatalities at retirement homes, are still too high. However, we are waiting for the expected, worrying wave of more aggressive mutations. Travel restrictions in relation to abroad even more strict from today, travels of all sort everywhere outside the country are simply not recommended.

I had my first PCR virus test today, since it's necessary for visiting the doctor for another reason next week and has about 90-95% certainty. It took 2-3 minutes, plus a bike ride.

Luckily, family members and closer acquaintances have avoided virus sickness so far, touch-wood. But we've experienced other kinds of severe illness in 2020. And I've met colleagues who know of up to 15 cases among their acquaintances.

[Karl Henning]

Health authorities now saying here in DK that all inhabitants will have had the option of a complete, double vaccine around the 27th of June. Good news, and earlier than previously expected. They'll be introducing vaccine passes/proofs too. Probably info that is comparable for several other EU countries as well.

Increased local restrictions also working so far, infections going down it seems, to maybe 50% of the maximum, though the numbers generally, and also fatalities at retirement homes, are still too high. However, we are waiting for the expected, worrying wave of more aggressive mutations. Travel restrictions in relation to abroad even more strict from today, travels of all sort everywhere outside the country are simply not recommended.

I had my first PCR virus test today, since it's necessary for visiting the doctor for another reason next week and has about 90-95% certainty. It took 2-3 minutes, plus a bike ride.

Luckily, family members and closer acquaintances have avoided virus sickness so far, touch-wood. But we've experienced other kinds of severe illness in 2020. And I've met colleagues who know of up to 15 cases among their acquaintances.

Warm thoughts!

[MusicTurner]

Warm thoughts!

Thank you, the same to everyone here. Things might be quite different in later 2021.

[pjme]

Health authorities now saying here in DK that all inhabitants will have had the option of a complete, double vaccine around the 27th of June. Good news, and earlier than previously expected. They'll be introducing vaccine passes/proofs too. Probably info that is comparable for several other EU countries as well.

Increased local restrictions also working so far, infections going down it seems, to maybe 50% of the maximum, though the numbers generally, and also fatalities at retirement homes, are still too high. However, we are waiting for the expected, worrying wave of more aggressive mutations. Travel restrictions in relation to abroad even more strict from today, travels of all sort everywhere outside the country are simply not recommended.

I had my first PCR virus test today, since it's necessary for visiting the doctor for another reason next week and has about 90-95% certainty. It took 2-3 minutes, plus a bike ride.

Luckily, family members and closer acquaintances have avoided virus sickness so far, touch-wood. But we've experienced other kinds of severe illness in 2020. And I've met colleagues who know of up to 15 cases among their acquaintances.

This resembles the situation in Belgium.
" The situation in our country has been improving for several weeks and is more favourable than in many other European countries.
The Consultative Committee has noted that the number of infections is gradually decreasing. Despite this general downward trend, the reproduction number is slightly rising again (Rt = 1.004). In addition, the number of intensive care admissions remains high.
However, according to the Consultative Committee, it is still too early to evaluate the possible impact of travellers returning from abroad, the festive season and the reopening of schools."
I will probably get my first vaccination in March. The ambition is to get 70% of the population vaccinated by the end of the summer. But will enough vaccine(s) be delivered on time?

[MusicTurner]

That is very, very good to hear, including also 1.004 and you & March. I'm aware of your earlier, high numbers in Belgium, that at times even seemed unlikely high by comparison? Has it been concluded that there were maybe also  some 'statistical/technical' or non-virus-related explanations for them, besides the virus in itself? I've heard that some immigrant+urban areas were severely hit, but only saw a couple of headlines about it ... (am not expecting you to write a long essay about it, of course  ...).

[pjme]

https://www.healthybelgium.be/en/health-status/mortality-and-causes-of-death/covid-19-mortality

This link may help. it is too late for a "long essay"...

Peter

[T. D.]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/us-flying-blindly-when-it-comes-to-new-covid-variant-says-doctor-.html

Dr. Ashish Jha, the Dean of Brown University's School of Public Health, warned "The News with Shepard Smith" that the United States is "flying blindly" and "guessing" when it comes to a highly transmissible new coronavirus variant in the country.   

"We don't know because we're not doing genomic sequencing of the virus in the way that the U.K. and other countries are," Jha said. "We have a ton of capacity to do sequencing, it's not like we can't do it. We just haven't and we've got to get our act together and start doing this so we can know if there's another variant circulating in our country."

The CDC issued a statement saying it has not seen the emergence of a highly contagious new U.S. variant of the coronavirus, unlike variants in the U.K. and South Africa. It noted, however, that there are probably many variants emerging across the globe.

Jha's statements come on the heels of reports from the White House coronavirus task force. It said there could be a new Covid variant that evolved within the U.S., is 50% more transmissible, and is propelling the spread, according to a document obtained by NBC News.

The U.S. recorded 4,085 deaths Wednesday, the first time the country topped 4,000 according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins data. Jha told host Shepard Smith that it's "stunning" as to why the U.S. has not done large-scale genomic sequencing of people infected with Covid, but noted that he was not "surprised" based on leadership from the White House.

"A White House that is disengaged, uninterested, and not helpful really, really does hamper the national response," Jha said in a Friday evening interview. "Some states are starting to pick up the slack, but it turns out in a pandemic, having the federal government is really useful."

[Que]

The whole thing is going sideways in a monumental way:

Novel cases in the EU in week 53:



Infection rate on a weekly basis:



https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

I see two major concerns:

1. An increased rate of spreading, that might outrun any vaccination efforts - which happen to go not very smoothly.
2. The continous appearance of mutations, with the risk of variants that are more contegeous, more dangerous or - and then the sh%t would really hit the fan - might render some or all of the current vaccines useless.

Call me a scaremonger, but I don't find current developments very reassuring.... 

Q

[MusicTurner]

The consensus here in DK is that the next two months will be hard; around the 1st of January they were thought to become probably the hardest ever, by almost everyone. But since then, the numbers of cases and hospitalizations have been going down, and the vaccine acknowledgments and buyings are coming faster than expected. It is still thought, that newly introduced, hard restrictions might have to continue until March. They include severe travel restrictions and recommendations. The UK and others are experiencing a rise in problems. But overall, new aggressive mutations do constitute the potentially biggest problem.

[Rosalba]

The whole thing is going sideways in a monumental way:

I see two major concerns:

1. An increased rate of spreading, that might outrun any vaccination efforts - which happen to go not very smoothly.
2. The continuous appearance of mutations, with the risk of variants that are more contagious, more dangerous or - and then the sh%t would really hit the fan - might render some or all of the current vaccines useless.

Call me a scaremonger, but I don't find current developments very reassuring.... 

Q

Sadly, I think you're right. However, the really high numbers are the result of Christmas and the New Year - the vaccines will pick up - and the warmer weather should bring some respite too. Even if we have to wear masks for years, ordinary life should improve - and even if nowhere near back to 'normal', it will seem like liberation.

So sorry about the large numbers dying. May they rest in peace. Love to their families and friends. Hanging in there, and wishing good to the world.

[Mandryka]

1. An increased rate of spreading, that might outrun any vaccination efforts - which happen to go not very smoothly.


Q

This is why the UK has decided to stagger the delay between jabs to three months. It is a real gamble, with unknown risks, potentially extremely serious risks, but we're in such dire straights that they felt there was no better alternative.

[Holden]

The standard response of any government world wide to an outbreak has been lockdown. Britain is in its third major lockdown (plus two smaller ones) and its obvious that this approach simply hasn't worked. Why? Is there an alternative that might be more effective?

Hopefully the vaccine roll out will make those two questions merely moot points.

[MusicTurner]

The standard response of any government world wide to an outbreak has been lockdown. Britain is in its third major lockdown (plus two smaller ones) and its obvious that this approach simply hasn't worked. Why? Is there an alternative that might be more effective?

Hopefully the vaccine roll out will make those two questions merely moot points.

It is unclear whether you are thinking of Britain, or the world generally, regarding the effect of lock-downs ... Obviously, lock-downs have worked in many areas, including Scandinavia, where you have very good options for comparing lock-down versus non-lockdown strategies, in countries, that aren't so different from each other. The Swedes, having strived for herd immunity, are for example only now recommended to use masks in public transport, and masks aren't even obligatory there. This as a reaction to mounting problems there. Statistically they have had many more fatalities than the surrounding countries, and the hospital sector is much more stressed. As regards the number of infected, it's difficult to estimate, since their testing has been much more limited, but it must have been substantially higher - yet also far from any herd immunity effects occurring. Every time a lock-down has been enforced in DK, the problems have quickly been reduced, at least until now, before the expected arrival of the more aggressive mutations, that are now a problem in the UK.

My understanding is that regarding Asian countries, like China and South Korea, the effectiveness has very much been based on infection tracking and testing, and very strict lock-down and isolation policies, that are even more authoritarian, than we are used to in the West.

[Mandryka]

The standard response of any government world wide to an outbreak has been lockdown. Britain is in its third major lockdown (plus two smaller ones) and its obvious that this approach simply hasn't worked. Why? Is there an alternative that might be more effective?

Hopefully the vaccine roll out will make those two questions merely moot points.

Lockdowns do work, if you look at the rate of hospital admissions after lockdown compared with the predicted course before, you see clearly that they are effective. And indeed it's not surprising given the way the virus is transmitted.

The problems are

1. Coming out of lockdown. How to do it so that it just doesn't take off again.

2. The new variants may be so much more transmissible.

[Mandryka]

Can someone explain to me what exactly has gone on in New Zealand? Do they have a winning formula which other freedom loving democracies can follow?

[Holden]

Can someone explain to me what exactly has gone on in New Zealand? Do they have a winning formula which other freedom loving democracies can follow?

NZs lockdown approach has been extreme (and overkill IMO). For a country who has no land borders containing the virus has been simple. Australia is in a similar position but its approach is somewhat compromised by the differing tactics of the eight state governments which have been varied to say the least. In at least two of those states, state elections, as opposed to common sense, has been the driving factor.