Coronavirus thread

[Mandryka]

The general assumption is that vaccines actually do significantly reduce transmission.
But all vaccines are less effective against the Delta variant. As I pointed out before, a more infectious variant and lower effectiveness of vaccines means you need a much higher vaccination rate as a threshold for group immunity. Before I mentioned 90%, the linked article mentions 85%.

I think the facts that the UK generally used AstraZeneca, a vaccine that is less effective than Pfizer or Moderna, and initially opted for a 1st shot for as many as possible instead of full vaccinations, will also play into this. AZ is only effective against the Delta variant with full vaccination.

Well as I say what we seem to be seeing is that the vaccinated populations have a 15 day doubling time. And that 2% of them need hospital care. That's not good.

[Que]

Well as I say what we seem to be seeing is that the vaccinated populations have a 15 day doubling time. And that 2% of them need hospital care. That's not good.

Indeed. Latetst research in Scotland suggests that AstraZeneca is only 60% effective - after full vaccination  (2 shots). Full vaccination does however significantly reduce the chance of hospitalisation (92%).

Is this "vaccinated population" fully vaccinated? Or are those with one or two shots taken together?

[71 dB]

A toxic mix of a football tournament and the Delta variant:

Covid: Europe risks new wave, WHO warns

You couldn't make this stuff up....

Sadly a lot of people just can't be without "live" entertainment for a couple of years even if it means prolonged pandemic. Maybe this is an extrovert thing, because as an introvert I can't understand it because I rather watch tv home than go to a stadium with 10.000 other people and I rather listen to my CDs than go to a classical music concert. However, I know extroverts need other people as much as we introverts need to be alone...

[Spotted Horses]

This interesting looking Guardian article suggests that the UK strategy is to achieve vaccine induced herd immunity. But I don't see how that's possible, the vaccines don't stop you catching the virus or transmitting it to others!

The mRNA vaccines do prevent you from spreading the virus to others.

[Mandryka]

The mRNA vaccines do prevent you from spreading the virus to others.

Do you have a reference? (I know they reduce the amount of virus you spread. But you don't need to come into contact with very much delta to get ill.)

(I'm glad you keep contributing to this thread. How's Texas?)

[Mandryka]

Indeed. Latetst research in Scotland suggests that AstraZeneca is only 60% effective - after full vaccination  (2 shots). Full vaccination does however significantly reduce the chance of hospitalisation (92%).

Is this "vaccinated population" fully vaccinated? Or are those with one or two shots taken together?

There are conflicting reports on the efficacy of AZ against delta. Caveat lector.

[Mandryka]

Is this "vaccinated population" fully vaccinated? Or are those with one or two shots taken together?

Fully.  But the figures are small and it's not really time to draw confident conclusions.

I think I understand what the UK strategy is. They are inducing naturally acquired herd immunity and using the vaccine to limit the flack. The vaccine is a bit like a cold remedy, or an anti inflammatory for arthritis  . . . it just makes the symptoms less horrible, without stopping the disease.

[Spotted Horses]

Do you have a reference? (I know they reduce the amount of virus you spread. But you don't need to come into contact with very much delta to get ill.)

(I'm glad you keep contributing to this thread. How's Texas?)

I posted a reference when you made a similar comment.

Data has long been available that vaccination reduces the rate of transmission.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html

The mechanism is fairly obvious. The vaccine does not make a person entirely immune, but makes immune response faster and more effective. As a result a person exposed is far less likely to get a serious infection. With lower viral load you are spewing less virus into the environment.

The salient point

A growing body of evidence indicates that people fully vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna) are less likely to have asymptomatic infection or to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. Studies are underway to learn more about the benefits of Johnson & Johnson/Janssen vaccine. However, the risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in fully vaccinated people cannot be completely eliminated as long as there is continued community transmission of the virus.

I don't know about Delta variant. The CDC does not do lab experiments, they analyze statistics on infection rates, vaccination rates, questionnaires filled out by infected people, etc. I don't know if Delta variant is prevalent enough in the U.S. for reliable data collection.

Thanks for the appreciation.

[Que]

The map of Europe is clearing up, with the exception of Portugal, Spain and the UK (no data on map). The rise of the Delta variant is a big factor in this.

The fear is that this summer Mediterranean beaches full of unvaccinated teenagers will generate another wave of infections. It's a race between vaccinations and the Delta variant - countries with a low/slow vaccination rate could get into trouble again.

[Mandryka]

Interesting to see pockets in the tourists islands of Spain and indeed one in Greece. I'd have thought it would have made sense to be sure that there was a very high level of vaccination on those islands. Same for the big Spanish tourists centres like the Costa Brava.  How the fk can Santorini be yellow?

[Que]

Interesting to see pockets in the tourists islands of Spain and indeed one in Greece. I'd have thought it would have made sense to be sure that there was a very high level of vaccination on those islands. Same for the big Spanish tourists centres like the Costa Brava.  How the fk can Santorini be yellow?

It seems we'll get some kind of repetition of last summer....

I guess those tourism euros are very, very hard to resist. 

Looking back at this pandemic, in Europe the winter and summer holiday seasons played a key role in spreading the infection across Europe - though mainly Western Europe.

[Que]

Bad news from Russia:

Russia's COVID-19 daily death toll climbs to new pandemic high

MOSCOW, July 2 (Reuters) - Russia registered a record number of daily COVID-19-related deaths on Friday amid a surge in cases across the world's largest country that the authorities blame on the infectious Delta variant.

The government's coronavirus taskforce said 679 people had died in the last 24 hours, the highest figure confirmed in a single day since the pandemic began. It also reported 23,218 new infections in the last 24 hours, including 6,893 in Moscow.

The Russian capital, the epicentre of the outbreak throughout the pandemic, is racing to repurpose hospitals to treat an influx of patients, Anastasiya Rakova, the city's deputy mayor, said.

"Now, with this explosive growth in infections, this (hospital) capacity is no longer enough and we will additionally add other hospitals again to combat the virus, as fast as possible, I hope," Russian news agencies quoted Rakova as saying. "(But) we'll do everything possible not to declare a lockdown," she said.

The surge in cases has prompted officials to impose an array of measures to compel or encourage people to get vaccinated against COVID-19. Vaccines are widely available, but demand for the shots has been tepid and polls show many people don't want to have them. Around 2.6 million people in Moscow have had at least the first component of a vaccine out of a population of more than 12.5 million, Rakova was cited as saying.

"Germany will close its borders to Russians starting Tuesday to prevent the importation of mutated Covid-19 strains, the German Embassy in Moscow announced."

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/07/03/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-july-2-a69117

[71 dB]

Now 60 % of Finns have got at least the 1st jab and 20 % are fully vaccinated. In 4 weeks I'll get my 2nd jab.

Vaccinations are heavily skewed toward older people: 84.6 % of people 80 or older are fully vaccinated and of 70-74 years olds 66 % are fully vaccinated while of 20-24 olds only 3.1 % are fully vaccinated. This means that especially among the younger Finns the virus (delta-variant) can spread, but there aren't many hospitalizations and corona related deaths thanks to the risk groups being so well vaccinated at this point.

It is interesting how in the US people are starting to live as if Covid-19 was over. Hopefully the rest of the World gets to that point sooner than later...

[Que]

It is interesting how in the US people are starting to live as if Covid-19 was over. Hopefully the rest of the World gets to that point sooner than later...

Well yes, as if indeed....  In reality NOBODY is getting to that point anytime soon....

[Karl Henning]

Now 60 % of Finns have got at least the 1st jab and 20 % are fully vaccinated. In 4 weeks I'll get my 2nd jab.

Very good!

[Holden]

In Australia we've approached this from the wrong perspective which is elimination of the virus. It's obvious that there is no actual way to do that yet our state governments continue to lock us down while vacillating on vaccination. The proof is staring them in the face yet they refuse to accept it.

The recent Sydney outbreak was started by a limo driver ferrying aircrew, one of whom passed on the Delta variant to him. This driver then went to a social gathering of about 34 people. Of these, 27 were infected and seven were cleared. All seven of those who tested negative were vaccinated!

Bottom line - get everyone vaccinated ASAP. It doesn't matter whether it's AstraZeneca, Pfizer or Moderna. Whatever's there, use it because it works. For AstraZeneca we have a twelve week turn around between the two jabs. The long turn around makes this drug just as effective as the two rMNA alternatives. The longer we wait for a specific drug (Pfizer seems to be preferred) the longer it will take until Covid19 becomes endemic as opposed to a pandemic.

[Mandryka]

[Que]

In Australia we've approached this from the wrong perspective which is elimination of the virus. It's obvious that there is no actual way to do that yet our state governments continue to lock us down while vacillating on vaccination. The proof is staring them in the face yet they refuse to accept it.

The recent Sydney outbreak was started by a limo driver ferrying aircrew, one of whom passed on the Delta variant to him. This driver then went to a social gathering of about 34 people. Of these, 27 were infected and seven were cleared. All seven of those who tested negative were vaccinated!

Bottom line - get everyone vaccinated ASAP. It doesn't matter whether it's AstraZeneca, Pfizer or Moderna. Whatever's there, use it because it works. For AstraZeneca we have a twelve week turn around between the two jabs. The long turn around makes this drug just as effective as the two rMNA alternatives. The longer we wait for a specific drug (Pfizer seems to be preferred) the longer it will take until Covid19 becomes endemic as opposed to a pandemic.

100% agreed - vaccination with any effective vaccine is the only way forward. For countries with a warmer climate and less sophisticated infrastructure, the "classic" vaccines like AstraZeneca or Jansen will be the only viable option anyway.

But a social gathering of 34 people in a lockdown is plain stupid.....

[Que]

Same here. Mask requirements largely have been lifted a week ago. Even though there is still scientific debate whether these low-grade masks actually reduce risks in a significant way, in the public mind this is an "all clear" sign and people start behaving as if nothing ever happened and we not in the midst of a pandemic anymore.

People want it to be over, so they have decided it is over. And cowardly politicians do not dare to tell them otherwise.

[Mandryka]

Same here. Mask requirements largely have been lifted a week ago. Even though there is still scientific debate whether these low-grade masks actually reduce risks in a significant way, in the public mind this is an "all clear" sign and people start behaving as if nothing ever happened and we not in the midst of a pandemic anymore.

People want it to be over, so they have decided it is over. And cowardly politicians do not dare to tell them otherwise.

I don't care about masks really (though I hate them), what's interesting is that The Telegraph is saying that evidence is that the health system is safe despite the rampant infection rate.  If that's true, that's good news.

What do you think nations should do about the possibility of new nasty variants emerging?