Coronavirus thread

[MusicTurner]

The positive percentage plus the rise in positive tests seem to have stopped their growth for the last 4 days or so.

The R number was estimated to 1.1 today, having gone down from 1.3 last Tuesday, but that estimated R number is probably very imprecise.

[Mandryka]

To minimize the risk  of uncontrolled virus spread.

The aim of vaccinating children is of course to add to herd immunity and thereby protect those, who don't experience equally mild Covid19 courses as children do.

I can well see the rationale for letting children get Covid19, but it should not happen experimentally at a time of an uncontrolled epidemic.

I do not believe that the UK has enough vaccines to cover younger age cohorts. That's the reason they say that the choice is between opening now or opening in mid 2022. A later opening in 2021 seems to cause more stress on the health service, because of seasonal respiratory diseases.

I'm not saying this is a knock down argument for opening now, before adolescents are vaccinated, but I do want to say that the issues are complex.

[Irons]

"Freedom day" is a lousy title and I squirm every time I hear it, but today does seem different and for good or ill, a blessed relief. Met a friend in a pub and for the first time since when allowed to order from the bar and I am far happier carrying the drinks myself then bar staff insisting on holding the glass and bringing it to my table. The village of the pub in question has a working men's club. I was told the club was jam-packed for the England semi-final Euro game. Subsequently fourteen were tested positive and forced to self-isolate, but none seriously ill. Covid is still out there alright.

The Pandora box of freedom has to be opened at some stage otherwise the world will go nuts. Is England too early? Probably.

[prémont]

I do not believe that the UK has enough vaccines to cover younger age cohorts. That's the reason they say that the choice is between opening now or opening in mid 2022. A later opening in 2021 seems to cause more stress on the health service, because of seasonal respiratory diseases.

I don't quite understand, because whether you open up now or later this year, you will see the same number of cases of respiratory diseases in the winter. However if the well tried corona precautions are continued, you will not get that much seasonal upper respiratory tract disease, because even influenza seems to be less contagious than corona.

Would it seem impossible that the younger age cohorts might be vaccinated within the next four or five months?

I'm not saying this is a knock down argument for opening now, before adolescents are vaccinated, but I do want to say that the issues are complex.

We can certainly agree that the problems are complex and that no one knows the best solution. My point, however, is that this not should be an occasion for risky experiments.

[Mandryka]

I don't quite understand, because whether you open up now or later this year, you will see the same number of cases of respiratory diseases in the winter. However if the well tried corona precautions are continued, you will not get that much seasonal upper respiratory tract disease, because even influenza seems to be less contagious than corona.

Would it seem impossible that the younger age cohorts might be vaccinated within the next four or five months?

If we open up now the peak of the exit wave is earlier than the start of the pressure from winter viruses. We expect a peak in August or early September, and then a long tail. By end August there should be substantial immunity in the community.

People here are expecting a tough year for flu, because of lost immunity last year.

I don't know how long it would take to vaccinate adolescents, and I don't know any details about the UK's vaccine stocks. Part of the problem is that we can't give the kids AZ.

If you want I'll give you a link to the modelling submissions which informed the uk decision, though I should say that they did not consider a 2022 opening.

[Mandryka]

We can certainly agree that the problems are complex and that no one knows the best solution. My point, however, is that this not should be an occasion for risky experiments.

The risks being new variants, long covid in children and hospital admissions running out of control. The first two are hard to quantify, the last can be managed by reintroducing non pharmaceutical interventions.

There is another risk of course - vaccine waning.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

"Freedom day" is a lousy title and I squirm every time I hear it, but today does seem different and for good or ill, a blessed relief. Met a friend in a pub and for the first time since when allowed to order from the bar and I am far happier carrying the drinks myself then bar staff insisting on holding the glass and bringing it to my table. The village of the pub in question has a working men's club. I was told the club was jam-packed for the England semi-final Euro game. Subsequently fourteen were tested positive and forced to self-isolate, but none seriously ill. Covid is still out there alright.

The Pandora box of freedom has to be opened at some stage otherwise the world will go nuts. Is England too early? Probably.

Trust that you had a nice time with your friend?  How crowded was it in there and were any people wearing masks?  And was it a combo of indoor and outdoor tables for use?  Knock on wood, I hope that all goes well--or at least as well as possible.

PD

[prémont]

If we open up now the peak of the exit wave is earlier than the start of the pressure from winter viruses. We expect a peak in August or early September, and then a long tail. By end August there should be substantial immunity in the community.

To let the virus run its free course and rely upon acquired natural herd immunity is what Que called cynical above, because people at risk are surrendered to their own destiny. I would be one of those, if I lived in GB.

[prémont]

The risks being new variants, long covid in children and hospital admissions running out of control. The first two are hard to quantify, the last can be managed by reintroducing non pharmaceutical interventions.

There is another risk of course - vaccine waning.

The best way to prevent new variants and vaccine waning - if it is possible at all - is to minimize the number of infected persons. And we do not do so by withdrawing the corona restrictions.

[Mandryka]

To let the virus run its free course and rely upon acquired natural herd immunity is what Que called cynical above, because people at risk are surrendered to their own destiny. I would be one of those, if I lived in GB.

Yes I guess that in the Tory party's theory, the duty of care to its citizens has been discharged by offering vaccinations and hospital care if needed, and the existing laws covering health and safety at work. And of course there is a cost to restrictive interventions, which has to be balanced against the benefits.

I have no clear thoughts about the morality of the UK's position, not yet.

[Mandryka]

The Uk's policy on vaccinating children has been revealed

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-of-children-and-young-people-aged-12-to-17-years-jcvi-statement/jvci-statement-on-covid-19-vaccination-of-children-and-young-people-aged-12-to-17-years-15-july-2021

[krummholz]

Good luck with that - facts don't sell newspapers. Also, I'd remove the word 'health' and leave the phrase as simply misinformation.

I was simply quoting from the article. Probably should have put in quotes, but anyone who clicked on the link would have realized that.

[Spotted Horses]

The only viable response is to vaccinate everyone as quickly as possible, then relax restrictions. The fact that every manufacturer capable of making vaccine is not doing so at the fastest possible rate, and that in the U.S., where enough vaccine doses were purchased for the entire country, lots of vaccine are expiring without being used, indicates the utter failure of our culture and economy.

[krummholz]

The only viable response is to vaccinate everyone as quickly as possible, then relax restrictions. The fact that every manufacturer capable of making vaccine is not doing so at the fastest possible rate, and that in the U.S., where enough vaccine doses were purchased for the entire country, lots of vaccine are expiring without being used, indicates the utter failure of our culture and economy.

Not sure I would say utter failure, but we are definitely not handling the situation optimally given the availability of vaccine doses here. The single most damaging factor has been the politicization of a public health issue, but also plenty of people here have decided to forgo the jab for selfish reasons unrelated to politics. All of these factors contribute to the problem.

But I agree that restrictions should not be lifted until sufficient vaccine coverage for "herd immunity" has been reached. And we're not to that point even in my state, with the highest degree of vaccine coverage in the US. Yet, very few people in stores and other public settings wear masks. After "Freedom Day" it's pretty hard to ask people to take a step back.

[Irons]

Trust that you had a nice time with your friend?  How crowded was it in there and were any people wearing masks?  And was it a combo of indoor and outdoor tables for use?  Knock on wood, I hope that all goes well--or at least as well as possible.

PD

A visit to a Supermarket today - oh joy! Without exception everyone masked up.

[Karl Henning]

"We have an influx of tourists, as well as people from the July Fourth weekend, which has put people in closer proximity with each other and these factors are contributing to the cases in several towns in Barnstable County," she said.

Reverberations from the Provincetown outbreak are already reaching Boston. The city's Public Health Commission reported at least 35 COVID-19 cases in Boston residents have been traced back to Provincetown and the "overwhelming majority of those have been fully vaccinated," officials said in a statement Tuesday.

Cape Cod is weathering a surge in COVID cases at the height of tourism season — including many among vaccinated people


Well, I'm masking up again whenever I go grocery shopping.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

A visit to a Supermarket today - oh joy! Without exception everyone masked up.

Oh, boy!  A big excursion for you!    Had you been shopping a small local places instead?  Or having groceries delivered?  I know that your wife is good at canning, but still...

I've been shopping at supermarkets and local small grocery store, but often times tried not to go quite as often.  Mask restrictions have been lifted in I think pretty much everywhere in my state--though doctors' offices and hospitals still require them.  I still wear one when going into town as a precaution.  Haven't tried eating out yet though have done take out a few times.

PD

p.s.  Glad that the farmers markets are back too!

[Mandryka]

The only viable response is to vaccinate everyone as quickly as possible, then relax restrictions. The fact that every manufacturer capable of making vaccine is not doing so at the fastest possible rate, and that in the U.S., where enough vaccine doses were purchased for the entire country, lots of vaccine are expiring without being used, indicates the utter failure of our culture and economy.

What's wrong with the UK's plan re vaccinating kids? I thought it was genius, given that the risk/benefit analysis of vaccinating children isn't clearly in the children's favour.

[Mandryka]

But I agree that restrictions should not be lifted until sufficient vaccine coverage for "herd immunity" has been reached.

That's NEVER going to happen! The vaccines wane, the vaccines are not 100% effective, the variants are easily transmitted, there are ethical problems about vaccinating children.  You've got to find a way of living with it, because it's here to stay.

[Irons]

That's NEVER going to happen! The vaccines wane, the vaccines are not 100% effective, the variants are easily transmitted, there are ethical problems about vaccinating children.  You've got to find a way of living with it, because it's here to stay.

Agreed. The cure is damaging the UK at present far more then Covid itself. The "pinging" NHS app is a perfect example of this which is creating chaos. Maybe I'm being ultra-pessimistic but ten days off on full pay if my smart phone pings........