Coronavirus thread

[MusicTurner]

Ah! And has the incidence of the disease changed as a result?

What measures are you taking in schools to reduce transmission? Is there special air testing and  purification equipment?

Sorry, rather local info, but:

There's been an increase in hospitalizations since the early summer, and maybe from 90 to 131 (today) during the latest month or so. But the positive percentage of those tested has been between 1 - 1.8 for quite a lot of weeks, typically 750 - 1150 a day. So not really an alarming growth rate so far. The R number has likewise been calculated as 1.0 for more than a month.

They expect the number to go up in autumn however; at a big press conference today, the government said a lot of stuff, including: the virus is thriving almost only among the non-vaccinated. 75% of the population except the youngest children has had vaccines, but only half of the children between 12-18 years, and it's essential that more children and young people get the vaccine, to stop the virus.

They're hoping for 90% of the population above 12 years on October 1st.

95% of hospitalizations are non-vaccinated; 51% of hospitalizations are now people younger than 40. Without a vaccination, it's basically impossible not to get an infection one way or the other from now on, due to Delta, which is 95% of infections.

But they also said that big lockdowns, like the two national, long-lasting ones we already had, are unlikely to be repeated. They are considering whether the virus status as that of a national emergency epidemic can be downgraded, and replaced by a stated policy of local tools in stead. Everyone will be offered a third jab, starting with the fragile cases. Results from a Danish vaccine, Bavarian Nordic, are highly promising also in relation to Delta, a government support of 100 mio Euros for it has been approved by the EU, and then immediately given. Economy is basically recovering and experiencing a big boost, the number of employed is higher than ever, etc.

I'm not sure about measures in schools, they aren't that dramatic I think, but there are some principles about distance indoors at least. Also, you are to quarantine if a person close to you socially gets tested positive. I haven't heard about any measuring of air/ventilation quality anywhere.

[T. D.]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/23/covid-dr-scott-gottlieb-says-delta-covid-surge-in-south-has-peaked-.html

Hasn't peaked in my county (Ulster Co., NY). Today's graph suggests that the next 2-4 weeks will give a critical indication of where we're heading:

[Holden]

Sorry, rather local info, but:

There's been an increase in hospitalizations since the early summer, and maybe from 90 to 131 (today) during the latest month or so. But the positive percentage of those tested has been between 1 - 1.8 for quite a lot of weeks, typically 750 - 1150 a day. So not really an alarming growth rate so far. The R number has likewise been calculated as 1.0 for more than a month.

Our PM has strongly suggested that it's not cases that should be reported but hospitalisations and that makes perfect sense. What should also be reported is those hospitalised who are not vaccinated. I can find this information on Govt health websites but rarely in the media. I am assuming that those of you who are posting that type of data are doing the same and using figures from official websites.

[Mandryka]

but only half of the children between 12-18 years, and it's essential that more children and young people get the vaccine, to stop the virus.

This is the main difference between the policies in the Uk and the policies in Denmark. We're offering vaccines to kids over 15, and to those under 15 if they're vulnerable in some way.

(Thanks for such a full and interesting reply, by the way!)

[Mandryka]

Sorry, rather local info, but:

There's been an increase in hospitalizations since the early summer, and maybe from 90 to 131 (today) during the latest month or so. But the positive percentage of those tested has been between 1 - 1.8 for quite a lot of weeks, typically 750 - 1150 a day. So not really an alarming growth rate so far. The R number has likewise been calculated as 1.0 for more than a month.

That's a growth of admissions of about 50%. There must have been a significant increase in incidence over the past few weeks.

[MusicTurner]

They're calling it
'a current epidemic among the non-vaccinated': 77% of registered new infections are among non-vaccinated, and 95% of hospitalizations as said, but obviously, the number of vaccinated has also gone up in the meantime. Delta is also said to perhaps give a tougher sickness than some previous variants, among non- vaccinated.

[MusicTurner]

Our PM has strongly suggested that it's not cases that should be reported but hospitalisations and that makes perfect sense. What should also be reported is those hospitalised who are not vaccinated. I can find this information on Govt health websites but rarely in the media. I am assuming that those of you who are posting that type of data are doing the same and using figures from official websites.

The info is extracted from the press here in DK, including their daily summaries / presentation of
government statistics. I can only be satisfied with the level of information here. We only have two tabloids, and from what I've seen, one of them is reasonable, the other one I never check. As for TV, there are two stations, and good info is on their websites, they don't really focus on daily variations when live.

[SimonNZ]

Our PM has strongly suggested that it's not cases that should be reported but hospitalisations and that makes perfect sense.

No it doesn't.

[Holden]

No it doesn't.

Care to explain why???

[Mandryka]

There's no way to get a "live" view on the number of cases each day. Clearly the number of positive test results is not the same thing. The statistical work to get some perception of the extent of incidence of the disease tends to be a week behind at best.


There is something else. The Uk thinks we can and must live with high incidence, and that the health provision will cope. From that point of view hospitalisations are a red flag, incidence is secondary. The Israel model seems to be different, much less tolerant of high case numbers.

[SimonNZ]

Care to explain why???

Reporting numbers of cases in the community *should* lead to greater vigilance and a sense of the seriousness and time frame of the problem...and of the risk of future hospitalizations.

Not reporting is saying "Crisis? What Crisis?" And misrepresenting the risk and the status of the pandemic.

I would have thought that was obvious.

[Mandryka]

Reporting numbers of cases in the community *should* lead to greater vigilance and a sense of the seriousness and time frame of the problem...and of the risk of future hospitalizations.

Not reporting is saying "Crisis? What Crisis?" And misrepresenting the risk and the status of the pandemic.

I would have thought that was obvious.

But case numbers aren't themselves serious. Serious cases, people who need hospital care, is. And that number is very much reduced in a vaccinated population, and low in younger people anyway.

[SimonNZ]

But case numbers aren't themselves serious. Serious cases, people who need hospital care, is. And that number is very much reduced in a vaccinated population, and low in younger people anyway.

That's true only of a population vaccinated at a peak level.

[JBS]

Florida hospitalizations from March 2020 through today

[Holden]

That's true only of a population vaccinated at a peak level.

I've got to agree with Howard regardless of vaccination levels. When you get 97 out of 100 cases, say, that are very mild and require no medical intervention there really isn't an issue. We don't and haven't done this with influenza in
the past (think back to swine flu in 2009) and that was just as infectious as the Delta strain is now. The other point to remember is that only a proportion of all Covid cases are actually recorded making the 'case' data incredibly inaccurate. This would not be the case for hospital admissions.

[SimonNZ]

I don't understand what your strategy is here. Let's say you only observe hospitalization figures and observe that the hospitals are beyond capacity with covid cases and have no beds left for heart attack or stroke victims. Then what? How is this a strategy of any kind?

[MusicTurner]

There's no way to get a "live" view on the number of cases each day. Clearly the number of positive test results is not the same thing. The statistical work to get some perception of the extent of incidence of the disease tends to be a week behind at best.
(...)

It partly depends on the amount of testing, which is a big thing and free here in DK. There's been 41 mio PCR and a lot of quick tests too, amounting to 7 PCR per inhabitant, and then many quick tests as well. Results are from day to day, including I think national results. Also, in many parts of educational and work life, regular testing is obligatory or very strongly recommended, therefore picturing the infections at some level at least; children and students tend to come from all parts of society.

That said, the number of tests has gone down in the later months.

[Que]

The spread will become less important as population immunity is increasing.

It's a sign that efforts aimed at containment (not by the UK...) are not (sufficiently) succesful.

Why is this important? There are still a lot of unvaccinated that now run an increased risk of coming into contact with the virus. Plus the vaccine seems less effective and lasting with the elderly and practically ineffective on people with a compromised immune system. And then there are some countries that still have a low vaccination rate, like Bulgaria (bottom of the list) which switched from green to dark red on the map. Is Romania next? 

Last but not least: an increased presence of the virus in a (largely) vaccinated population increases the chance of resistant variants.

[Holden]

I don't understand what your strategy is here. Let's say you only observe hospitalization figures and observe that the hospitals are beyond capacity with covid cases and have no beds left for heart attack or stroke victims. Then what? How is this a strategy of any kind?

...this is somewhat specious. Both your country and mine have no issues with hospitals being over capacity and are highly unlikely to. The reason for this is quite simply that 98% of cases are mild or asymptomatic and don't require medical treatment. It's when the medical intervention figure rises, as opposed to the number of cases, that you know you have a problem.

When I see a headline like this - 'Middlemore Staffer Tests Positive' and then read further on that this person was not symptomatic and I am thinking, what is the point of this headline except to both sensationalise and spread misinformation. It's fear mongering and I'll bet that there are a whole raft of people out there who mistakenly think "If I get Covid 19 I'll die" because of how the media has covered the pandemic

Once again, I'll go back to the number of reported cases as opposed to the real number of cases. The reported cases must be far lower than what is actually out there in the community. This means that the 'reported' cases give a false picture of what is happening which the media are happy to play up. A UNSW study last year suggested that the number of reported cases as a opposed to all cases could be as low as 20%. That could be as high as 80% undetected. It makes sense. If you don't get tested or are asymptomatic and don't know you have covid then you don't become part of the statistics. If you get seriously sick and need medical help or hospitalisation then this will give us a reasonably accurate picture of what percentage of the population is at risk.

[SimonNZ]

I don't know what's happening where you are but here during this current lockdown we are trying to make the "reported cases" and "what is actually out there in the community" to be one and the same thing with aggressive tracing and testing. I don't know why you would think a 20/80 thing acceptable.