Coronavirus thread

[Todd]

The fact that (legal) enforcement does not (and cannot) work for such mandates does not quite make them ludicrous.

Yes, it does.  Any government agency at any level mandating behavior such as this is ludicrous on its face.  In the US it is almost certainly unconstitutional.  No government agency enjoys that enumerated power.  The probability of the mandate reaching SCOTUS is basically nil, so there will unfortunately be no precedent to rely on in the future.

In addition to being ludicrous, the order is also obscene.  However, as been seen all over the world, not inconsiderable segments of the population now blindly follow the state in its irrational public health authoritarianism.  Many people then offer defenses of said authoritarianism, and quite happily at that.

[Que]

I think it was a stroke of genius on Britain's part to let the virus rip from July, creating the wave of hospital admissions and deaths in the warmer months.

[Mandryka]

Cat got your tongue?

The thought is that you Europeans are going to either have to keep locked down again, or see that wave NOW! IN WINTER! Which is probably not an option.

Botswana is a bit worrying.

[Florestan]

as been seen all over the world, not inconsiderable segments of the population now blindly follow the state in its irrational public health authoritarianism.  Many people then offer defenses of said authoritarianism, and quite happily at that.

Both phenomena are highly worrisome for me --- not least because I have a scary feeling of déja-vu.

[Mandryka]

Britain has closed its boarders with several African countries over fear of new variant




https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59424269

[71 dB]

We have to get somehow to the point were hardly any people get seriously sick of Covid-19 and end up in hospitals, especially in intensive care.
When that happens, nobody cares about the virus anymore. The question is how long will it take before we get to that point? Six months? A year? 5 years? 20 years?

The situation is quite bad in Finland. 2020 was childs play compared to now. I think people are so tired of the pandemic they don't care if they die. Is this existence worth it?

[Florestan]

Britain has closed its boarders with several African countries over fear of new variant




https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59424269

One might as well close any country's border with each and every other country over fear of new variant.

No, really, this is going more and more insane. Governments which for decades have been tolerating toxic chemicals in food, toxic chemicals in drinking water, toxic chemicals in breathing air, for decades have been tolerating the manipulative and unethical behaviour of Big Pharma, for decades have been tolerating large multinational corporations to push aside national small and miedium-sized companies thus contributiing to the impoverishment of the national middle class, for decades have shown utter and complete disregard for the interests and grievances of their own citizens and have been eagerly and lucratvely promoting the interests of global capitalism --- those selfsame governments have suddenly turned into genuine humanitarians greatly concerned with, and working hard to protect, their people's health. How any rational and reasonable person can believe them, let alone applaud and support whatever liberticide (sic!) policies they implement, is beyond my comprehension powers.

Heck, until recently here on GMG there were quite a few vocal and acerbic critics of Big Pharma's manipulative and unethical behaviour --- yet they have been either quiet ever since the vaccination frenzy started, or enthusiastic supporters thereof. Am I really the only one to feel a cognitive dissonance in this respect?

[Mandryka]

https://twitter.com/tuliodna/status/1463911554538160130?s=21

The above tweet from the director of Centre for Epidemic Response & innovation, South Africa, seems absolutely right to me.

I would like to plea to all billionaires in this world
@elonmusk

@BillGates

@JeffBezos

@DrPatSoonShiong

@WarrenBuffett
to support Africa & South Africa financially to control and extinguish variants! By protecting its poor and oppressed population we will protect the world.

I also want to plea to financial organizations
@WorldBank

@IMFNews

@USAID

@PEPFAR

@GlobalFund
to support the poor population and governments in South Africa and Africa to control and extinguish variants! By protecting its poor and oppressed population we will protect the world.

[JBS]

One might as well close any country's border with each and every other country over fear of new variant.

No, really, this is going more and more insane. Governments which for decades have been tolerating toxic chemicals in food, toxic chemicals in drinking water, toxic chemicals in breathing air, for decades have been tolerating the manipulative and unethical behaviour of Big Pharma, for decades have been tolerating large multinational corporations to push aside national small and miedium-sized companies thus contributiing to the impoverishment of the national middle class, for decades have shown utter and complete disregard for the interests and grievances of their own citizens and have been eagerly and lucratvely promoting the interests of global capitalism --- those selfsame governments have suddenly turned into genuine humanitarians greatly concerned with, and working hard to protect, their people's health. How any rational and reasonable person can believe them, let alone applaud and support whatever liberticide (sic!) policies they implement, is beyond my comprehension powers.

Heck, until recently here on GMG there were quite a few vocal and acerbic critics of Big Pharma's manipulative and unethical behaviour --- yet they have been either quiet ever since the vaccination frenzy started, or enthusiastic supporters thereof. Am I really the only one to feel a cognitive dissonance in this respect?

The cognitive dissonance arises only if there's evidence "Big Pharma" is doing anything manipulative or unethical in relation to the vaccine. To date I've seen absolutely none.

To your larger point--almost everything  you listed does not lend itself to headlines and photographs of mass death in hospitals. Covid19 does.

[krummholz]

In addition to being ludicrous, the order is also obscene.  However, as been seen all over the world, not inconsiderable segments of the population now blindly follow the state in its irrational public health authoritarianism.  Many people then offer defenses of said authoritarianism, and quite happily at that.

And if I took the mandate literally as an order constraining what I might do in my private space, I would feel similarly. Funny thing, I take it as guidance, nothing less, nothing more, and I'm perfectly happy to comply.

It seems those who speak out most loudly against this are people with memories of a different time when the authoritarian state intruded into private life in a way that free societies must never tolerate. But I think it's misplaced to equate the two situations, largely because, as Florestan has pointed out, today's mandates in Europe and North America are impossible to enforce in any meaningful way.

I'd feel very differently if the government actually tried to enforce it somehow, say by imposing fines and encouraging citizens to inform on their neighbors. That would be a bridge too far. And if that happened, I'm quite sure you would see legal challenges and the cases might ultimately reach SCOTUS.

But it's not happening, so that is not going to happen.

I'm much more concerned about authoritarianism rising in the person of elected heads of state with delusions of grandeur and serious conflicts of interest, than I am about public health "mandates" with no teeth that have a net positive effect on getting people to behave in their own best interest.

[Florestan]

https://twitter.com/tuliodna/status/1463911554538160130?s=21

The above tweet from the director of Centre for Epidemic Response & innovation, South Africa, seems absolutely right to me.

He missed Bill Gates, who in each and every interview since March 2020 have been speaking as authoritatively as if he were the Health Minister of the World. 

[Mandryka]

He missed Bill Gates, who in each and every interview since March 2020 have been speaking as authoritatively as if he were the Health Minister of the World. 

The problem I have is that if this new variant does turn out to be very nasty and dominates delta, a quarantine mandate is likely to be ineffective. It will get into the UK eventually - that's the lesson with alpha and delta, and NZ too! It may buy a bit of time, but what are we going to do with that time? The quarantine mandate is just a bit of theatre, useless.

It may be as that only real solution is a big one - we have to vaccinate the whole world, with a vaccine that stops transmission - we don't have the vaccine and the world is big and Pfizer want to make a profit.

And if that's right, what happens politically and economically in the interim, as the transmission stopping vaccine is being developed and then rolled out?

We're all doomed. It's endzeit everyone.

[Todd]

Funny thing, I take it as guidance, nothing less, nothing more, and I'm perfectly happy to comply.

There are always people perfectly happy to comply with ludicrous government mandates.

[Karl Henning]

And if I took the mandate literally as an order constraining what I might do in my private space, I would feel similarly. Funny thing, I take it as guidance, nothing less, nothing more, and I'm perfectly happy to comply.

And the guidance is well-advised, because the presumption that people are just going to do the sensible thing on their own is catastrophically gainsaid by the tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths in Texas and Florida, e.g. The motto of whose State Depts of Health seems to be: Everyone is going to die, anyway.

[Karl Henning]

Variant showing a 'big jump in evolution' detected in South Africa — 5:35 p.m.

By The New York Times

A concerning new variant of the coronavirus, whose mutations evidence a "big jump in evolution," is driving a spike in new COVID-19 infections in South Africa, scientists said Thursday.

In the last 36 hours after observing an increase in infections in South Africa's economic hub, the Gauteng province, scientists detected the B1.1.529 variant. So far, 22 positive cases have been identified in South Africa, according to South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases.

Since the onset of the pandemic, a number of variants have emerged. One underlying concern about new variants is whether they will stymie progress against the pandemic or whether they will limit the vaccine's effectiveness. South African scientists will meet with the World Health Organization technical team on Friday, where authorities will assign a letter of the Greek alphabet to this one.

Botswana's health ministry confirmed in a statement that four cases of the new variant were detected in people who were all fully vaccinated. All four were tested before their planned travel. One sample was also detected in Hong Kong, carried by a traveler from South Africa, South African scientists said.

[Karl Henning]

South African scientists detect new virus variant amid spike

By Andrew Meldrum and Mogomotsi Magome | AP
Today at 4:26 p.m. EST

JOHANNESBURG — A new coronavirus variant has been detected in South Africa that scientists say is a concern because of its high number of mutations and rapid spread among young people in Gauteng, the country's most populous province, Health Minister Joe Phaahla announced Thursday.

The coronavirus evolves as it spreads and many new variants, including those with worrying mutations, often just die out. Scientists monitor for possible changes that could be more transmissible or deadly, but sorting out whether new variants will have a public health impact can take time.

South Africa has seen a dramatic rise in new infections, Phaahla said at an online press briefing.

"Over the last four or five days, there has been more of an exponential rise," he said, adding that the new variant appears to be driving the spike in cases. Scientists in South Africa are working to determine what percentage of the new cases have been caused by the new variant.

Currently identified as B.1.1.529, the new variant has also been found in Botswana and Hong Kong in travelers from South Africa, he said.

The World Health Organization's technical working group is to meet Friday to assess the new variant and may decide whether or not to give it a name from the Greek alphabet.

The British government announced that it was banning flights from South Africa and five other southern African countries effective at noon (1200GMT) on Friday, and that anyone who had recently arrived from those countries would be asked to take a coronavirus test.

U.K. Health Secretary Sajid Javid said there were concerns the new variant "may be more transmissible" than the dominant delta strain, and "the vaccines that we currently have may be less effective" against it.

The new variant has a "constellation" of new mutations, said Tulio de Oliveira, from the Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa, who has tracked the spread of the delta variant in the country.

The "very high number of mutations is a concern for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility," said de Oliveira.

"This new variant has many, many more mutations," including more than 30 to the spike protein that affects transmissibility, he said. "We can see that the variant is potentially spreading very fast. We do expect to start seeing pressure in the healthcare system in the next few days and weeks."

De Oliveira said that a team of scientists from seven South African universities is studying the variant. They have 100 whole genomes of it and expect to have many more in the next few days, he said.

"We are concerned by the jump in evolution in this variant," he said. The one piece of good news is that it can be detected by a PCR test, he said.

After a period of relatively low transmission in which South Africa recorded just over 200 new confirmed cases per day, in the past week the daily new cases rapidly increased to more than 1,200 on Wednesday. On Thursday they jumped to 2,465.

The first surge was in Pretoria and the surrounding Tshwane metropolitan area and appeared to be cluster outbreaks from student gatherings at universities in the area, said health minister Phaahla. Amid the rise in cases, scientists studied the genomic sequencing and discovered the new variant.

"This is clearly a variant that we must be very serious about," said Ravindra Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge. "It has a high number of spike mutations that could affect transmissibility and immune response."

Gupta said scientists in South Africa need time to determine if the surge in new cases is attributable to the new variant. "There is a high probability that this is the case," he said. "South African scientists have done an incredible job of identifying this quickly and bringing it to the world's attention."

South African officials had warned that a new resurgence was expected from mid-December to early January and had hoped to prepare for that by getting many more people vaccinated, said Phaahla.

About 41% of South Africa's adults have been vaccinated and the number of shots being given per day is relatively low, at less than 130,000, significantly below the government's target of 300,000 per day.

South Africa currently has about 16.5 million doses of vaccines, by Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson, in the country and is expecting delivery of about 2.5 million more in the next week, according to Nicholas Crisp, acting director-general of the national health department.

"We are getting in vaccines faster than we are using them at the moment," said Crisp. "So for some time now, we have been deferring deliveries, not decreasing orders, but just deferring our deliveries so that we don't accumulate and stockpile vaccines."

South Africa, with a population of 60 million, has recorded more than 2.9 million COVID-19 cases including more than 89,000 deaths.

To date, the delta variant remains by far the most infectious and has crowded out other once-worrying variants including alpha, beta and mu. According to sequences submitted by countries worldwide to the world's biggest public database, more than 99% are delta.

[Florestan]

as Florestan has pointed out, today's mandates in Europe and North America are impossible to enforce in any meaningful way.

Actually, there is a way to enforce them at least in some degree: constant fear-mongering coupled with encouraging people to spy on their neighbours and report any and all breaches of mandate; presenting the latter as the civic duty of a responsible citizenry also helps. It's been tested elsewhere and worked. I'd say it could work fairly well in this case too.

[krummholz]

Actually, there is a way to enforce them at least in some degree: constant fear-mongering coupled with encouraging people to spy on their neighbours and report any and all breaches of mandate; presenting the latter as the civic duty of a responsible citizenry also helps. It's been tested elsewhere and worked. I'd say it could work fairly well in this case too.

Yes, I mentioned the possibility of enacting penalties and encouraging people to spy on their neighbours and said that would be "a bridge too far" for myself and for many Americans, I'm quite sure. But there is no sign that the government has any inclination to take that step, and indeed, something like that would almost certainly trigger swift legal challenges that would lead to its being found unconstitutional. As long as the "mandate" is treated as mere guidance and as authority for institutions like schools and businesses to enact mask policies I have no issue with it.

Of more immediate concern IMO is the OHSA mandate for universal vaccination in companies with more than 100 employees. There have been legal challenges there, but I've lost track of where they stand at the moment. I would have no problem with withholding federal funds from institutions that receive federal funding for failure to comply, but regulatory penalties for all companies does raise legitimate concerns about the precedent that something like this sets, other OHSA workplace health-based regulations notwithstanding.

[Todd]

Of more immediate concern IMO is the OHSA mandate for universal vaccination in companies with more than 100 employees.

OSHA Halts Rule Mandating COVID Vaccines and Testing

As result of the Fifth Circuit's stay order, OSHA, on November 15, issued a statement that it was suspending "activities related to the implementation and enforcement" of the Rule, but provided that OSHA "remains confident in its authority to protect workers in emergencies..." and that it is pausing its activities "pending future developments in the litigation."  Therefore, as of today, OSHA's implementation and enforcement of the Rule is temporarily halted.

Perhaps a legal scholar on this forum can cite where in the Constitution the federal government possesses the enumerated power to issue such mandates.

[MusicTurner]

The initial, overall positive estimate here by several experts in DK is that for example mRNA-vaccines can be adjusted to the new variant quite easily, should it be necessary. But it might take some months to work this out, maybe from say 4 months or half a year, including testing and approval. Production capacity won't be a problem.

Here, vaccinating children aged 5-11 years was officially approved and recommended today, following EMA decisions earlier.