Coronavirus thread

[Florestan]

What they experience with omicron in SA may be much lighter than what they experienced with delta, because the community has more immunity now due to the delta wave.

Cognitive dissonance alert! The only difference between SA and UK in this respect is that the UK rate of vaccination is much higher.

[Mandryka]

Cognitive dissonance alert! The only difference between SA and UK in this respect is that the UK rate of vaccination is much higher.

Yes, assuming that vaccination acquired immunity is no more or less good at combatting omicron than immunity acquired by infection -- i.e. that immunity acquired through infection is not more polyclonal.

But the point is simply this. The people in SA are saying "this is less serious than delta was for us." And they're right, and it's exactly what you'd expect given the increased virus acquired immunity in the population. It may not be because omicron is milder than delta, rather it may be because the population has become more resistant. Too early to say. And until we can say, the UK cannot use the SA experience to predict that omicron for us will be milder than delta was.

[Florestan]

The people in SA are saying "this is less serious than delta was for us." And they're right, and it's exactly what you'd expect given the increased virus acquired immunity in the population. It may not be because omicron is milder than delta, rather than because the population has become more resistant.

What is different in the UK, and why?

Look, according to a study of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the one European country featuring the highest rate of natural immunity against Covid-19 (ie, people who have had the disease and recovered) is Romania, at about 70%. I don't know how they calculated that exact percentage which seems exaggerated to me, but I tend to agree with the gist of their argument  --- all my anecdotical evidence, including the closest family members, points in that direction.

Take my own case. I've been officially tested positive with Covid-19 in early March 2021 (very mild symptoms) and I strongly suspect I've already had it in early March 2020 (many severe symptoms --- I even told my wife that that was the worst flu I've ever experienced, and mind you, at the time both she and my son had also bad flu, which we all got from the hospital where my father-in-law was hospitalized). I am absolutely not concerned about getting it again --- actually, I even strongly suspect I might have got it again recently, and recovered without ever needing any treatment.

[Karl Henning]

Darn those "virtue-signalers"!

R.I. Governor McKee authorizes a mask mandate for venues of 250 or more — 1:50 p.m.

By Alexa Gagosz, Globe Staff

In a long-anticipated announcement, Governor Dan McKee said Wednesday that Rhode Island will only have a universal mask mandate for venues of assembly and businesses with a capacity of 250 people or more.

[Florestan]

R.I. Governor McKee authorizes a mask mandate for venues of 250 or more — 1:50 p.m.

By Alexa Gagosz, Globe Staff

In a long-anticipated announcement, Governor Dan McKee said Wednesday that Rhode Island will only have a universal mask mandate for venues of assembly and businesses with a capacity of 250 people or more.

Which begs the question: is the virus afraid of 249 people and will infect only 250 or more of them? 

[Karl Henning]

By Kay Lazar, Felice J. Freyer and Julia Carlin:
Some infectious disease experts say mandates alone may not be enough to convince a pandemic-weary public to don face coverings once again. John Brownstein, an epidemiologist at Harvard Medical School and chief innovation officer at Boston Children's Hospital, concluded in a study published earlier this year that communities with high reported rates of mask wearing and physical distancing were able to better tamp down transmission of the virus — but government mandates did not seem to boost the number of people wearing masks.

"The mandate itself is not necessarily the most effective," Brownstein said. "What we have found, generally speaking, is that [mask wearing] goes up when there is a threat other than a government mandate."

He said a surging number of cases and rising hospitalizations post-Thanksgiving, coupled with so many unknowns about the rapidly spreading Omicron variant, are just as likely to convince people to put their masks back on.

And the latest data from Carnegie Mellon University's COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey appears to agree with that assessment. It shows that the percentage of Massachusetts residents who report wearing a mask climbed to 67 percent earlier this week, from 61 percent just before Thanksgiving.

Ali H. Mokdad, professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said there is no doubt that masks "can control the spread of this virus."[emphasis mine—kh]

[Florestan]

Ali H. Mokdad, professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said there is no doubt that masks "can control the spread of this virus."[emphasis mine—kh]

Wearing a mask is the least liberticide measure I can think of --- I never oppoosed it, not least on the ground that surgeons wear it daily for hours without any bad effects. Heck, right now that I'm typing wearing a mask outdoor is not mandatory in Romania yet in 99% of cases I wear a mask outdoor.

[Mandryka]

What is different in the UK, and why?

Look, according to a study of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the one European country featuring the highest rate of natural immunity against Covid-19 (ie, people who have had the disease and recovered) is Romania, at about 70%. I don't know how they calculated that exact percentage which seems exaggerated to me, but I tend to agree with the gist of their argument  --- all my anecdotical evidence, including the closest family members, points in that direction.

Take my own case. I've been officially tested positive with Covid-19 in early March 2021 (very mild symptoms) and I strongly suspect I've already had it in early March 2020 (many severe symptoms --- I even told my wife that that was the worst flu I've ever experienced, and mind you, at the time both she and my son had also bad flu, which we all got from the hospital where my father-in-law was hospitalized). I am absolutely not concerned about getting it again --- actually, I even strongly suspect I might have got it again recently, and recovered without ever needing any treatment.

The problem is that the doubling time is very fast - 2 days here - and so the predictable spike of infections is very large and steep. That means not only that all the breakthrough cases needing oxygen are going to come at once. It also means that all those people who can't go to work because they feel crap will all come at once, as will the people isolating because they're a positive contact. The former is a problem about finding hospital beds, the latter is a problem about filling the shelves in the markets, running the trains, sending a policeman to the scene of a crime, putting a teacher in front of the kids at school etc etc

But yes, for a vaccinated individual the risk is low. And a public spirited individual may want to take extra precautions - take a test before going to parties, work from home if possible, that sort of thing.

[Florestan]

The problem is that the doubling time is very fast - 2 days here - and so the predictable spike of infections is very large and steep.

I asked it before, I ask it again: did the UK government stated which is the number of infections that will make the UK public healthcare system collapse?

all the breakthrough cases needing oxygen

Their estimated number being...?

all those people who can't go to work because they feel crap will all come at once.

I felt crap each and every morning after a drinking binge. I went to work each and every morning I felt crap.

My point: feeling crap is not a specific Covis-19 symptom.

filling the shelves in the markets, running the trains, sending a policeman to the scene of a crime, putting a teacher in front of the kids at school etc etc

These are going to be serious problems if and only if vaccination will be mandatory --- ie, if and only if the society will go totalitarian in a degree which Communism, Nazism and Fascism never were.

[Florestan]

for a vaccinated individual the risk is low.

What risk? Certainly not the infection and transmission risk.

a public spirited individual may want to take extra precautions - take a test before going to parties,

On December 12 I threw a party for my birthday --- neither did I take a test, nor did I request a test for my guests, which were all vaccinated --- I guess I'm not a public spirited individual and neither are my guests.

work from home if possible

If you ask me, that's the best thing that came out of this bloody mess.

EDIT --- My honest advice to you is this: listen less to mainstream media news and more to Chopin's music.

[greg]

Wearing a mask is the least liberticide measure I can think of --- I never oppoosed it, not least on the ground that surgeons wear it daily for hours without any bad effects. Heck, right now that I'm typing wearing a mask outdoor is not mandatory in Romania yet in 99% of cases I wear a mask outdoor.

Same here. IMO the people that complain about masks (for public places, not talking about 8+ hours a day at work, different type of complaint there) are being somewhat petty, and it doesn't help that they tend to be also concerned about the same types of things actually worth having concerns about. Can tend to obfuscate other people's points because of it.

[Karl Henning]

Are you suggesting that there are a large number of serious adverse reactions to the vaccines that are being covered up somehow?

Hope he isn't. the number certainly is not large.

CDC advisers to weigh limits on Johnson & Johnson vaccine because of continued rare blood clot issues

New data appears to show the rate has increased since April, although the problem remains rare. About nine deaths related to the issue have also been reported.

By Lena H. Sun and Laurie McGinley Today at 7:00 p.m. EST

Vaccine advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are meeting Thursday to weigh possible limits on the use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine because of continued blood clot issues, mostly in young and middle-aged women, according to clinicians familiar with the agenda.

The single-dose vaccine has been linked to a rare and severe type of blood clot, which halted its use for 10 days in April as federal health officials looked more closely at six women who experienced the problem — the only known cases among more than 7 million people who received the vaccine in the United States at that time. One of the women died. The pause was lifted after an extensive safety review that determined the vaccine's benefits outweighed the risks.

On Thursday, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices will be presented with new data that appears to show the rate of the clots in people who received the Johnson & Johnson shot has increased since April, although the problem is still rare. There have been about nine deaths related to the issue, according to a federal official familiar with the situation.

The FDA, in an update to its fact sheet on the vaccine this week, said the highest reporting rate of clot issues — about one case per 100,000 doses administered — has been in women 30 to 49 years old.

A comprehensive review of the blood clot condition following vaccinations between last December and Aug. 31 found six deaths among 50 confirmed cases of the blood clot condition among recipients of the one-shot regimen. During that period, 14 million doses of the vaccine were given, according to the study published last month, which has not yet been peer-reviewed.

The panel is "certainly going to get some updates between the [April] pause and now — how many more cases are there [now] compared to before, and are there certain populations that may be at increased risk, based on age, gender and comorbidities," said one clinician familiar with the agenda, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss it publicly.

After reviewing the data, it is expected to vote on whether to update its recommendation for the vaccine's use, according to the meeting agenda. The options include leaving the current recommendation to administer it to anyone 18 or older, "get rid of it, or only use it in certain populations," the clinician said.

Another option, according to a federal official familiar with the situation, would be to recommend the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines over the Johnson & Johnson product, making what is known as a preferential recommendation.

Any changes in the vaccine's use would likely apply to both the initial single shots and boosters, said a second clinician knowledgeable about Thursday's meeting.

Such a recommendation would have to be endorsed by CDC Director Rochelle Walensky to become an official recommendation of the agency.

On Monday, the CDC sent emails to state health departments asking them to "describe the predicted impacted [sic] to your jurisdiction's COVID-19 vaccination program if Janssen [Johnson & Johnson] were no longer recommended, or were recommended only for a subset of the population," according to a copy of the email shared with The Washington Post.

Regulators believe the benefits of the vaccine outweigh its risks, according to the FDA's updated fact sheet. At its discussion in April just before lifting the pause, the CDC's vaccine advisory panel took the same position, but there was debate about whether to add additional warnings targeted to women under 50. That was not done, although the FDA and the CDC added language to fact sheets and guidance for physicians to make women younger than 50 aware of the rare risk and the availability of other coronavirus vaccines.

Jake Sargent, a spokesman for Johnson & Johnson, said the company has updated its fact sheet to include the latest information from the FDA about the rare condition. "We are committed to understanding and communicating all known risks, including rare events of [the blood clot condition], and strongly support raising awareness of the signs and symptoms of this rare event," he said in an email.

Since April, more studies have also shown that the two-shot Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, which use the mRNA technology, have higher effectiveness in preventing hospitalizations than the Johnson & Johnson product. However they are more difficult to use for certain groups that are less likely to return for a second shot.

By far the greatest number of vaccine doses administered in the United States have been the Pfizer and Moderna products, totaling about 468 million doses, according to the CDC. About 17 million doses of Johnson & Johnson have been given.

State health officials have said the one-shot vaccine, which doesn't require ultracold storage like the Pfizer product, is useful for vaccinating hard-to-reach communities, including migrant workers, homeless shelters, the homebound and others with limited access to health care. In some areas, where there are incentives to be fully vaccinated, getting one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine meets that definition.

Still, a recommendation to limit its use or make it less preferred is not likely to have a huge practical impact because "we have ample mRNA vaccines available to us," the second clinician said.

In conversations with patients who have received the Johnson & Johnson product, the clinician already urges those eligible for boosters to get either the Pfizer or Moderna shots because data shows greater protection if the booster uses a different technology than the original regimen.[interesting—kh]

The federal official said that if the advisers determine the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is a "less preferential vaccine," it would also send a signal about its use outside the United States. The vaccine is authorized for use in 90 countries, according to the World Health Organization. "That could be a problem because saying that means we are making a comment for the U.S. population, which means we should not be exporting" the vaccine, the official said.

[Karl Henning]

How One Country Stopped COVID Dead in Its Tracks

Japan has a death rate of around 5 percent of the carnage in the U.S. thanks to massive vaccine rollout success and the universal acceptance that masks are a good idea.

David Axe Updated Dec. 15, 2021 10:45AM ET

COVID cases are on the rise all over the world. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere, the rapid spread of the new and more transmissible Omicron variant, and the stubbornness of the previous variant, Delta, have all contributed to a surge in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in many countries.

But not in Japan. In Japan, COVID has all but disappeared. And it's mostly clear why.

"It always comes down to vaccines, to social restrictions [on] large gatherings, mask-wearing," Dale Fisher, group chief of medicine at Singapore's National University Health System, told The Daily Beast. "There's no secret code that any country has discovered."

While many countries including the United States struggle against a stubborn minority of fervent anti-vaxxers, Japan has quietly vaccinated 80 percent of its 126 million people. That's nearly everyone who's over 5 years old and thus eligible.

In a lot of countries, mask mandates are deeply controversial. But not in Japan, where many people habitually wore masks in public even before the pandemic.

When SARS-CoV-2 first came to Japan, the country suffered like every other country did, scrambling to contain the virus through a combination of business and school closures, mask mandates, contact-tracing, quarantines, and travel bans.

More than 18,000 Japanese have died. That's 14 out of every 100,000 people in the country, compared to 127 out of 100,000 in Germany and a staggering 242 out of 100,000 in the U.S.

Once vaccines were widely available starting this spring, however, Japan showed the world that it's special, if not quite unique. There are a few other countries that are as highly vaxxed as Japan is—Singapore and Israel, to name a couple. But even those two countries are registering a lot more new cases than Japan is right now. Last week, authorities in Tokyo reported just 113 new infections a day on average. Israeli officials reported 615 cases a day in a population of 9 million people. Singapore, with fewer than 6 million people, reported 645 a day.

The U.S., by the way, is back up to 120,000 new infections a day as COVID rips through the 40 percent of the population that has refused to get vaccinated or, in the case of kids under 5, isn't eligible yet.

Japan is beating COVID primarily by steadily vaccinating everyone. Remarkably, it did so without really mandating jabs anywhere. "Vaccines will never be administered without the recipient's consent," Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida vowed on his official website. "We urge the public never to coerce vaccinations at the workplace or upon others around them, and never to treat those who have not received the vaccine in a discriminatory manner."

That lack of coercion didn't seem to matter. It took just five months for almost all eligible Japanese to get jabbed.

That community-mindedness is equally apparent when it comes to masks, which experts stress are still key tools for preventing the virus's spread even where good vaccines are free and readily available. When it comes to masks, in Japan "there's just an acceptance," Fisher explained. "It does reflect on the society."

But even widespread vaxxing and masking don't totally explain Japan's success suppressing the virus, Taro Yamamoto, chairman of the Department of International Health at the Institute of Tropical Medicine at Nagasaki University, told The Daily Beast. "It's not clear at this point what other factors are involved," Yamamoto said.

The Japanese government has adopted sound COVID policies and the Japanese people, demonstrating what to Americans might seem like an unusual degree of trust in their leaders and each other, have gone right along. Plus, the country appears to just be... lucky. "I don't believe Japan has a secret formula," Fisher said.

If there's a caveat, it's that one of the most stringent policies—on-again, off-again bans on travel to Japan—isn't really helping. Japan was all but inaccessible to non-resident foreigners for two years. Tokyo was just about to start relaxing the travel ban when Omicron first appeared. Now Japan remains closed to most outsiders.

But two years into a global pandemic, where the virus has already found its way into every region of every country, border-closings simply don't work any more, Fisher said. "Travel restrictions are a false sense of security."

Pointless travel ban aside, it looks like Japan is winning its war on COVID. But experts warn that could change. There are worrying signs that the new Omicron variant makes the standard, two-dose regimen of the messenger-RNA vaccines less effective.

A third shot—a booster—should help. But compared to other rich countries, Japan has been slow to offer boosters to the general population. The government authorized health-care workers to get boosted starting Dec. 1. That was an obvious first step, as health workers are at elevated risk—and since many workers in the health-care industry were first in line to get vaccinated and thus might, by now, be losing some of their vaccine-induced antibodies.

The government wants people to wait until eight months after their prime immunizations to get boosted, meaning everyday people who don't work in health care aren't yet eligible. After all, widespread vaccination didn't get underway in Japan until early summer.

But Omicron won't wait. Tokyo knows it needs to speed up booster eligibility, but hasn't yet come up with a plan. "We are hoping to determine the effect of the existing vaccines on the Omicron strain as soon as possible, and then show the scope and method of moving up booster shots," Kishida told legislators last week.

Even if the government immediately authorizes everyone to get boosted, Japan will still be behind many other countries as far as third shots are concerned. The U.S. for all its scattershot approach to COVID at least has moved quickly on boosters. The U.S. Food and Drug administration has authorized everyone 16 and older to get a third shot. A quarter of Americans are already boosted.

Japanese officials have tallied just a dozen or so Omicron cases in the country. But the variant may yet become dominant in Japan. And if Omicron takes over before large numbers of residents can get their boosters, the variant's potential to evade prime vaccination could leave Japan vulnerable.

"We are just at the beginning of winter so it is quite possible that they will see a surge in January [to] February," Paul Ananth, president of the Asia Pacific Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infection in Singapore, told The Daily Beast.

As far as COVID is concerned, Japan has done almost everything right. But that could change as the pandemic enters its third year and Japan, as well as the rest of the world, tries to keep up with an evolving virus and achieve some form of population-level "herd" immunity, where viral transmission is all but impossible.

"SARS-COV2 mutates quickly, and like the flu, there will always be viruses that escape immunity," Yamamoto said. "The acquisition of herd immunity will be established after immunity to some mutant strains has been acquired. It will take a year or two."

A year or two is plenty of time for something to go wrong.

[greg]

Let's get straight to the point, shall we?

In my not so humble, very informed opinion, anyone who is in favor of mandatory vaccination is in favor of a totalitarian society --- one that not even the Communists, Nazis and Fascists dared to enforce.

Well, unintentionally, maybe. It's along the lines of trading freedom for "safety." Kind of a parallel to countries where people want a strong leader to fight off the bad guys- and they will comply however needed to do so. A leader only gets their power from supporters, after all.
It's sort of like a test for the general population. Be submissive and scared and the government will know it can treat its people however it wants to. Protest enough and in the future the government might at the very least hesitate with any unfair treatment, since the message is sent that the culture of its people isn't a culture of pushovers.

[Holden]

EDIT --- My honest advice to you is this: listen less to mainstream media news and more to Chopin's music.

The best advice I've seen on this thread! If you must have the facts then go to the Covid19 data websites that nearly all governments run and make up your own mind rather than have some media person who hasn't do it for you. The statistics might surprise you.

[SimonNZ]

The best advice I've seen on this thread! If you must have the facts then go to the Covid19 data websites that nearly all governments run and make up your own mind rather than have some media person who hasn't do it for you. The statistics might surprise you.

But...but...but...

These same governments are " in favor of a totalitarian society --- one that not even the Communists, Nazis and Fascists dared to enforce."


ffs

[Mandryka]

What risk? Certainly not the infection and transmission risk.

Here in London it's pretty well certain that everyone will catch omicron over the next very few weeks -- hermits apart.

[MusicTurner]

With 9999 found cases today here in DK, another new record, current restrictions are unsatisfactory, and a new set will be introduced soon, maybe tomorrow. Life is generally quite normal, except mask wearing, a curfew in nightlife around midnight, the closure of schools, and a bit more.

Another initiative being carried through is the 3rd jab campaign, a big task hoping to include 3.5 mio people within just a few weeks. I'm able to keep a low profile socially, until my 3rd jab is supposed to work, after the next week-end. There won't be mandatory vaccines here.

Concerning Omicron, sources are not clear yet, but even if it is somewhat milder, the growth in cases will likely mean straining the hospitals further. But the 3rd jab does tend to reduce the seriousness of the disease. Also, treatment options are generally way better than in 2020.

Here, about 10% of the population has been registered as having had the disease; the real number must be higher, of course. But there hasn't been excess mortality. A big Chinese survey now states that 2 of 5 don't experience symptoms at all.

A bit strange that mostly UK, South Africa and DK seem very hit, officially, by Omicron so far - results from other countries should now be ticking in, in spite of any local slowness in sequencing, I think.

[Florestan]

Here in London it's pretty well certain that everyone will catch omicron over the next very few weeks -- hermits apart.

Everyone? I doubt it.

[Mandryka]

Everyone? I doubt it.

Well yes, I think so, unless some sort of very serious lockdown is put into place, everyone. It's doubling every too days; the vaccines do not prevent people catching it so the whole population is susceptible;  it seems very transmissible so you don't need a big dose to get it.