Coronavirus thread

[Mandryka]

The benefits of mandating vaccination are also quite clear.

Look at the related idea of a vaccine passport - not a mandate but a carrot to induce people to vaccinate. In some countries it worked (France) in some countries it worked much less well (Israel) I guess the same may be true for vaccine mandates. That's to say, the refusers could become entrenched in their refusal. The 2022 equivalent of draft dodgers.

[MusicTurner]

(...)

Separately, some good news: South Africa's huge omicron wave appears to be subsiding just as quickly as it grew

(...)

Got interested and checked the source for this:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/south-africa-s-huge-omicron-wave-appears-to-be-subsiding-just-as-quickly-as-it-grew/ar-AAS3RTg?ocid=uxbndlbing

"I'd say we are probably between two and three weeks ahead of the U.S., about two ahead of Norway and Denmark, and substantially ahead of, probably up to four weeks, the U.K. and the rest of Europe. But what we're seeing here in South Africa at least tentatively should be good news for everyone."

Here's a bit of evidence about the tendency with less cases:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

It will be interesting to see if this holds.

[Karl Henning]

Maybe we agree, maybe not. I hinted at fear based upon reality.

I am somehow not surprised that it does not occur to our Andrei that one can seek information about the viral enemy, without backing into fear. Maybe he has some emotional need to feel that people other than himself are somehow "crippled by fear."

[Mandryka]

Decrying that as Big Brother is a self-righteous fantasy all its own.

It is not a fantasy to observe that the mandates are designed to force people to do something to their bodies which they do not wish to do. And that's justified by maximising the resulting total benefit.

And it is not inappropriate to suggest that this sets a precedent, a precedent which from some points of view is undesirable.

[prémont]

Vaccines will, it is hoped, prevent death and serious complications.  Current evidence indicates that is what happens.  Clearly vaccines cannot prevent the spread of the disease.  That's been known for a while.  Anecdotally, I had an employee who was fully vaccinated yet contracted Covid twice afterward, and that was months before omicron.  In the health care delivery company I cited earlier, "breakthrough" infections are common, and have been all year.  The benefits of vaccination are quite clear. 

Breakthrough infections became common with the delta variant even in the short run because the effect of the vaccines declined rather fast. These infections are more common with the omikron variant even with people who have got their third jab relatively recently.

[Todd]

Breakthrough infections became common with the delta variant

They were common prior to the Delta variant. 

[Todd]

It is not a fantasy to observe that the mandates are designed to force people to do something to their bodies which they do not wish to do. And that's justified by maximising the resulting total benefit.

And it is not inappropriate to suggest that this sets a precedent, a precedent which from some points of view is desirable.

The legitimate use of coercive state power is one of the most important topics of all.  Literary diversions are mere diversions.

[Mandryka]

Maybe he has some emotional need to feel that people other than himself are somehow "crippled by fear."

I think you should delete this comment, it's not very gentlemanly.

[Mandryka]

STOP ARGUING EVERYONE, THERE'S SOME GOOD NEWS.

A report from Imperial College London showing that the risk of serious illness from omicron is significantly reduced.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-50-severity-omicron/

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2021-12-22-COVID19-Report-50.pdf

Overall, we find evidence of a reduction in the risk of hospitalisation for Omicron relative to Delta infections, averaging over all cases in the study period. The extent of reduction is sensitive to the inclusion criteria used for cases and hospitalisation, being in the range 20-25% when using any attendance at hospital as the endpoint, and 40-45% when using hospitalisation lasting 1 day or longer or hospitalisations with the ECDS discharge field recorded as "admitted" as the endpoint.

In their press comments, they have been keen to stress that this reduction in disease severity  "appears to be offset by the reduced efficacy of vaccines against infection with the Omicron variant."

[Karl Henning]

I don't think guilt is the right word. But I think the unvaccinated exert an asocial and reckless behaviour, bringing others at risk much more than they need.

You are right: guilt is not at all the right word. It shows no nuance, but then it was Andrei's self-righteous word, of course, and the man on the soap box has no need for nuance. For bringing others at risk much more than they need, I would suggest instead: posing a risk to others, which is not (despite their posturing) a behavior to which they possess any inherent right.

[prémont]

They were common prior to the Delta variant.

Yes, there have from the beginning been people who didn't respond sufficiently to the vaccine and got infected early, but the immunity of the earliest vaccinated people began to decline already in April/May this year, and this is the reason of the so called breakthrough infections already when we had alfa and delta.

[Karl Henning]

Pfizer pill becomes first FDA-authorized home COVID treatment

By MATTHEW PERRONE The Associated Press, Updated December 22, 2021

US health regulators on Wednesday authorized the first pill against COVID-19, a Pfizer drug that Americans will be able to take at home to head off the worst effects of the virus.

The long-awaited milestone comes as US cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all rising and health officials warn of a tsunami of new infections from the Omicron variant that could overwhelm hospitals.

The drug, Paxlovid, is a faster, cheaper way to treat early COVID-19 infections, though initial supplies will be extremely limited. All of the previously authorized drugs against the disease require an IV or an injection.

An antiviral pill from Merck also is expected to soon win authorization. But Pfizer's drug is all but certain to be the preferred option because of its mild side effects and superior effectiveness, including a nearly 90 percent reduction in hospitalizations and deaths among patients most likely to get severe disease.

"The efficacy is high, the side effects are low and it's oral. It checks all the boxes," said Dr. Gregory Poland of the Mayo Clinic. "You're looking at a 90 percent decreased risk of hospitalization and death in a high-risk group — that's stunning."

The Food and Drug Administration authorized Pfizer's drug for adults and children ages 12 and older with a positive COVID-19 test and early symptoms who face the highest risks of hospitalization. That includes older people and those with conditions like obesity and heart disease. Children eligible for the drug must weigh at least 88 pounds (40 kilograms).

The pills from both Pfizer and Merck are expected to be effective against Omicron because they don't target the spike protein where most of the variant's worrisome mutations reside.

Pfizer currently has 180,000 treatment courses available worldwide, with roughly 60,000 to 70,000 allocated to the US Federal health officials are expected to ration early shipments to the hardest hit parts of the country. Pfizer said the small supply is due to the manufacturing time — currently about nine months. The company says it can halve production time next year.

The US government has agreed to purchase enough Paxlovid to treat 10 million people. Pfizer says it's on track to produce 80 million courses globally next year, under contracts with the U.K., Australia and other nations.

Health experts agree that vaccination remains the best way to protect against COVID-19. But with roughly 40 million American adults still unvaccinated, effective drugs will be critical to blunting the current and future waves of infection.

The US is now reporting more than 140,000 new infections daily and federal officials warn that the Omicron variant could send case counts soaring. Omicron has already whipped across the country to become the dominant strain, federal officials confirmed earlier this week.

Against that backdrop, experts warn that Paxlovid's initial impact could be limited.

For more than a year, biotech-engineered antibody drugs have been the go-to treatments for COVID-19. But they are expensive, hard to produce and require an injection or infusion, typically given at a hospital or clinic. Also, laboratory testing suggests the two leading antibody drugs used in the US aren't effective against Omicron.

Pfizer's pill comes with its own challenges.

Patients will need a positive COVID-19 test to get a prescription. And Paxlovid has only proven effective if given within five days of symptoms appearing. With testing supplies stretched, experts worry it may be unrealistic for patients to self-diagnose, get tested, see a physician and pick up a prescription within that narrow window.

"If you go outside that window of time I fully expect the effectiveness of this drug is going to fall," said Andrew Pekosz, a Johns Hopkins University virologist.

The FDA based its decision on company results from a 2,250-patient trial that showed the pill cut hospitalizations and deaths by 89 percent when given to people with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 within three days of symptoms. Less than 1 percent of patients taking the drug were hospitalized and none died at the end of the 30-day study period, compared with 6.5 percent of patients hospitalized in the group getting a dummy pill, which included nine deaths.

Pfizer's drug is part of a decades-old family of antiviral drugs known as protease inhibitors, which revolutionized the treatment of HIV and hepatitis C. The drugs block a key enzyme which viruses need to multiply in the human body.

The US will pay about $500 for each course of Pfizer's treatment, which consists of three pills taken twice a day for five days. Two of the pills are Paxlovid and the third is a different antiviral that helps boost levels of the main drug in the body.

[drogulus]

     An extension of the state power regarding vaccinations to the latest threat hardly counts as an expansion. It's the same power. It's up to the crankitarians to provide a suitable and convincing argument that it's in the public interest to roll that power back. No one should hold their breath.

[prémont]

You are right: guilt is not at all the right word. It shows no nuance, but then it was Andrei's self-righteous word, of course, and the man on the soap box has no need for nuance. For bringing others at risk much more than they need, I would suggest instead: posing a risk to others, which is not (despite their posturing) a behavior to which they possess any inherent right.

Yes, even in an ideal democracy we don't have the right to harm our neighbour neither at will nor by carelessness. This is the essence of the laws which have been approved by our democratically elected parliaments.

[drogulus]

Yes, even in an ideal democracy we don't have the right to harm our neighbour neither at will nor by carelessness. This is the essence of the laws which have been approved by our democratically elected parliaments.

     Democracy is evil. Only rule by those who think state power is itself evil can be good. It may not be easy to make it work in practice (what will replace voters?) but no one can deny it's a beautiful idea, amiright?

[Florestan]

Because of the highly contagious omikron, which makes more lockdown necessary. This was not actual to the same degree with the delta.

They offer some protection for the elderly and vulnerable, but probably not enough against the omikron, whereas they offer better protection for those with a well-functioning immunesystem.

This was in the days of the delta, before the omikron emerged. It has changed the game. Now we can only hope to keep it somewhat down if everybody is vaccinated and a number of restrictions observed.

When sigma emerges, it too will change the game: we will need a new booster and a new lockdown. Then tau will change the game as well: we will need a new booster an a new lockdown. Then upsilon, then, then, then, all the way down to omega which will require the umpteenth booster and lockdown. And after omega, then what? Will we start anew from alpha 2.0?

The naturally acquired immunity doesn't seem to last longer than immunity after vaccination.

I've read scientific papers claiming otherwise.

And all people 50+ run a greater risk than necessary when they are not vaccinated. 

The risk is assessed on a case by case basis, taking into account many more factors than mere age.

I might understand the scepticism against vaccination, if vaccination was associated with a high degree of side-effects. But this isn't the case.

This is not the case according to whom?

I think the unvaccinated exert an asocial and reckless behaviour, bringing others at risk much more than they need.

I think it is fair to exclude them from different social activities, travelling et.c. and also jobs particularly in the health care section.

I beg to differ. Strongly.

You have a point there. But else I should isolate myself completely, and this might affect my mental state in the long run.

According to psychiatrists and psychologists, lockdown and restrictions do affect people in the long run, especially children and teenagers.

But actually the health authorities here recommend testing before one visits older vulnerable relatives. Ideally this presupposes a PCR test, which you can't get that easily now because of the increasing demand.

I'\m astonished. If tomorrow I wanted to take a PCR test, I'd have plenty of locations to chose from: just go there, fill a form, wait for maybe 15 mins at most and get tested --- on my own money, of course. I should have thought that Denmark was way ahead Romania in this respect.

Maybe we agree, maybe not.

I agree that vaccines greatly reduce the number of hospitalizations and deaths because of Covid-19.

I agree that many anti-vaxxers are loons.

I disagree that vaccinations greatly reduce the number of infections.

I disagree that vaccination should be mandatory, including by such means as requiring vaccination prrof in order to be able to go to work.

I disagree that unvaccinated people are either benighted or conscious enemies of the people.

I  disagree that governments, experts and pharmaceutical companies are fully impartial, completely honest and driven exclusively by genuine concerns for people's health.

[Holden]

I have just become eligible for a booster, alas it won't be possible to schedule it until the first week of January.

I am amazed to see large scale lock-downs suggested. Our civilization can't continue with large scale lock downs, and especially school closures. The lockdowns were necessary and effective measures to slow the progress of the pandemic and keep health care systems from collapsing until a vaccine could be developed. Now we have the vaccine. At this point the disease is here to stay and we have to wait for it to equilibrate and become and endemic disease, which will will moderately affect the vaccinated population.

Absolutely correct but will the politicians see it this way? We have a new Chief Health Officer here in Queensland who is a significant step up from the bumbling sycophantic fool we had previously. He  is an immunologist and has already stated that how we report on Covid must change from the number of cases to the number of hospitalisations. Our Premier, however, is a worry and despite that fact that she has stated that we will never go into lockdown again, I just don't believe her. I reckon that crunch time is about two weeks away.

[Florestan]

It is not a fantasy to observe that the mandates are designed to force people to do something to their bodies which they do not wish to do. And that's justified by maximising the resulting total benefit.

And it is not inappropriate to suggest that this sets a precedent, a precedent which from some points of view is undesirable.

Aye.

[Florestan]

I think you should delete this comment, it's not very gentlemanly.

As of late I've grew accustomed to exactly this kind of comments from our dear Karl regarding me, so I don't mind it.

[Karl Henning]

Trump's Handling of COVID Was Worse Than You Thought.
Someone ought to go to jail.

Jonathan V. Last
1 hr ago

1. Early COVID

Last week the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis issued a report, along with a release of some emails and interviews.

First things first: This report is not what America needs. The report is overly partisan and at times reads like a combination of score-settling against the Trump administration and justification of the Biden administration.

What we need is a comprehensive, non-partisan excavation of the American government's response to COVID. Something along the lines of the 9/11 Commission. Because what we saw in 2020 and 2021 amounts to the greatest failure of the federal government in our lifetimes. The people responsible for this failure must be held accountable, on the record. And we must not be repeat this failure in the future.

All of that said, the factual material in this short report is . . . I don't even know the right word for it.

Here are some highlights, in timeline form.

Last week the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis issued a report, along with a release of some emails and interviews.

First things first: This report is not what America needs. The report is overly partisan and at times reads like a combination of score-settling against the Trump administration and justification of the Biden administration.

What we need is a comprehensive, non-partisan excavation of the American government's response to COVID. Something along the lines of the 9/11 Commission. Because what we saw in 2020 and 2021 amounts to the greatest failure of the federal government in our lifetimes. The people responsible for this failure must be held accountable, on the record. And we must not be repeat this failure in the future.

All of that said, the factual material in this short report is . . . I don't even know the right word for it.

Here are some highlights, in timeline form.

February 25, 2020: No Americans have died of COVID yet.

From the report:

[T]he Trump White House blocked CDC's requests to conduct public briefings for more than three months following a February 25, 2020, CDC briefing in which then-CDC National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases Director Nancy Messonnier accurately warned the public about the risks posed by the coronavirus. Dr. Messonnier confirmed that this briefing "angered" then-President Trump.

February 29, 2020: The first American dies of COVID.

Total U.S. dead: 1

On February 29, advisers to the president send a memo warning about what is about to happen. From the report:

[A] '"first wave" of infections in the United States was imminent and that the federal government needed to "be honest about the situation and show it is undertaking major decisive actions" to combat the coronavirus. A memo to then-President Trump dated one day later warned that the country was facing "a very serious public health emergency" and recommended "Industrial Mobilization of Supply Chains," while emphasizing that the Administration's "movement is NOT fast enough."

In response, the president and his surrogates attempted to publicly deny that there was any problem at all. For instance, here is Trump on March 10: "It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away."

May 24, 2020: 620 Americans die.

Total U.S. dead: 97,690

Jay Butler, the Deputy Director CDC Infectious Diseases, sends an email to the White House protesting that they have altered CDC guidelines by deleting suggestions for wearing masks and for limiting in-person church services:

This is not good public health—I am very troubled on this Sunday morning that there will be people who will get sick and perhaps die because of what we were forced to do. Our team has done the good work, only to have it compromised....