Coronavirus thread

[Que]

That has to make you wonder what the effect of the lockdown actually is. This isn't covered in the UK press as far as I know because, basically, we're not planning to lock down. Presumably the European press is full of careful analysis of their controls, well thought through justifications of their restrictions.

The numbers on infections and hospitalisations are still going down, but probably not for long - as was predicted.
The aim was to slow the advance of Omicron down, while speeding up the booster campaign. It seems that that goal will be accomplished. The plan is to get all the willing their booster this month. On a personal note: will get my booster later this week, my wife next weekend.

We're lucky Omicron is not more dangerous than Delta and vaccinations still have sufficient residual effect to avoid serious illness in most cases. Whether Omicron will be as mild for the unvaccinated who never experienced an infection or for those with impaired immunity, still remains to be seen. I hope so, but we will only know in two weeks or so.

[Holden]

Omicron is taking off here in Qld now that our borders are open. I was booked for a booster on Jan 14 but logic says that the chances of me coming into contact with someone who has Covid19 has substantially increased. With that in mind I'll drive down the the walk in centre in the Gold Coast Convention Centre this morning. Better to be safe than sorry.

[prémont]

May the missus mend rapidly! And you stay clear.

+ 2

[prémont]

That has to make you wonder what the effect of the lockdown actually is.

There is always the unknown factor, which is the behaviour of people.

[Que]

There is always the unknown factor, which is the behaviour of people.

Indeed. There are lots of people that are trying to avoid restrictions by organising large private parties (which is illegal) or doing day trips to Belgium or Germany, much to the chagrin of those countries.

I think to early closure of schools during the holidays was very beneficial in slowing down the virus. Because schools are large concentrations of unvaccinated and as such play a key role in the spreading of the virus. There is a familiar pattern in which the virus enters a family through the youngest generation and then moves slowly up towards the elderly. I expect a surge in infections when the schools and day care centres reopen after the XMas holidays.

And then, if Omicron is really that infectious, we are all going to catch it unless we self isolate...
Personally, I will remsin as cautious as I can untill the booster has reached its optimal effect.

[Mandryka]

speeding up the booster campaign.

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/vaccinaties

25% 18+ vaccinated effectively against omicron hospitalisation. People have understood the necessity for adult boosters for weeks. So someone somewhere had made the decision not to accelerate the booster programme, or there's a supply problem.

[Mandryka]

There is always the unknown factor, which is the behaviour of people.

In the UK we've found that people voluntary kept their behaviour in check, there was no need to use the law to impose restrictions.

Again this was well understood from the example of Sweden in 2020.

[MusicTurner]

Sweden is not considered a success story by Scandinavian standards.

[Mandryka]

Sweden is not considered a success story by Scandinavian standards.

But in the first wave, spring 2020, they saw that the propagation could be kept in check without lockdown - that's right isn't it?

[Que]

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/vaccinaties

25% 18+ vaccinated effectively against omicron hospitalisation. People have understood the necessity for adult boosters for weeks. So someone somewhere had made the decision not to accelerate the booster programme, or there's a supply problem.

The problem is they started late - mid November - and slow. A familiar and recurring screw up...
We are seeing the dire consequences of a partly privatised and fully decentralised health care system with "cost efficient" minium capacity...

[Mandryka]

The problem is they started late - mid November - and slow. A familiar and recurring screw up...
We are seeing the dire consequences of a partly privatised and fully decentralised health care system with "cost efficient" minium capacity...

Yes starting mid November was a major mistake given the evidence from Israel about vaccine wane. I mean, it was predictable in August that delta would kill a lot of older folk if they weren't boosted.

A trait of Boris is that he gets things done. He got Brexit done, and he got vaccines done. When the Tory party believe in something, they don't mess around. They believe in vaccines.

[MusicTurner]

Fatalities should be the measurement standard here, and Sweden is considered rather catastrophic, way above the other Scandinavian countries in numbers. The Swedish strategy was more mortal, it has even been called a gerontocide.

DK comes second in the number of fatalities, yet, if taking population size in mind, Sweden has more than doubled that. Finland and Norway have a lot less. It must said though, that Sweden's situation seems to have improved up to omicron, with fatalities numbers going down a lot recently, at least so far. Of course, one can expand comparisons; Romania for example has almost 2x the numbers of Sweden, adjusted to population size. Some arguing for Sweden say that a better natural immunity might be there now; on the other hand, they're imposing a few more restrictions due to oncoming omicron. They also test a lot less there.

Norway 1,305 deaths /5.4 mio
Finland 1,564 /5.5 mio
DK 3,272 /5.8 mio
S 15,310 /10.4 mio
Romania 58,779 /19.3 mio
UK 149,154  /67.2 mio

[Que]

A trait of Boris is that he gets things done. He got Brexit done, and he got vaccines done. When the Tory party believe in something, they don't mess around. They believe in vaccines.

He is reaping the benefits of the NHS.... not a Tory invention!

[Mandryka]

I think this is an interesting article -- UK focussed but the lessons, if they're valid, apply elsewhere. It's the first time, as far as I remember, I've seen a plausible vision for what the world with covid  could look like.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/02/britain-got-it-wrong-on-covid-long-lockdown-did-more-harm-than-good-says-scientist

[vandermolen]

+ 2

Thank you! She was coughing a lot during the night (I was in the spare room with the cat) but she is not too bad this morning. I gave myself another lateral flow test which was still negative.

[Que]

Thank you! She was coughing a lot during the night (I was in the spare room with the cat) but she is not too bad this morning. I gave myself another lateral flow test which was still negative.

You might not get a breakthrough infection.
A colleague's young daughter brought Covid in from school with just a runny nose and some sniffling. Both parents fully (twice) vaccinated. The mum was in bed for almost a week, the dad kept testing negative and never had any symptoms.

[krummholz]

My wife had a cough this morning so we did the Lateral Flow Tests (obtaining them is a whole other story) and she tested positive. I tested negative but I guess that my chances of catching it are high. Fortunately I had my booster jab (finally) on 21st December so, it should be, more or less, up to full-strength now. Not a great start to the New Year!

Very sorry to hear this... hopefully her case will prove to be mild and she wil recover quickly. And hopefully you will NOT catch it!

[Iota]

Very sorry to hear this... hopefully her case will prove to be mild and she wil recover quickly. And hopefully you will NOT catch it!

+1

Good luck, vandermolen. 

[Pohjolas Daughter]

My wife had a cough this morning so we did the Lateral Flow Tests (obtaining them is a whole other story) and she tested positive. I tested negative but I guess that my chances of catching it are high. Fortunately I had my booster jab (finally) on 21st December so, it should be, more or less, up to full-strength now. Not a great start to the New Year!

Very sorry to hear that Jeffrey.  I hope that she doesn't develop further health issues and recovers quickly and that you don't get it.

How does this effect you returning to school?  And how long is your winter/holiday break for?

PD

[Pohjolas Daughter]

One of my brothers now has infections at home.

Sorry to hear that Karl.  How are he and his family doing?

PD