Coronavirus thread

[Ratliff]

The idea that only Chinese propaganda makes the lab release story improbable and superfluous to the origin of the pandemic is plain silly. Natural spread from animal to human hosts is how the samples got to the lab. We don't need a bonus explanation on top of that.

To believe the claim that the virus epidemic was caused by accidental release by the lab that was studying it is like believing that people in Detroit were not poisoned by their drinking water, they were poisoned by accidental release of drinking water samples collected by the lab that was measuring lead levels.

[drogulus]

To believe the claim that the virus epidemic was caused by accidental release by the lab that was studying it is like believing that people in Detroit were not poisoned by their drinking water, they were poisoned by accidental release of drinking water samples collected by the lab that was measuring lead levels.

     Wait, are you saying........

[Ratliff]

     I don't buy this. Scientists communicate with each other across national and ideological boundaries far more than Communists or Trumpists would want. The chatter intelligence officials would rely on as evidence of a coverup never occurred, which itself is evidence.

It just occurred to me, I read a scandal piece to the effect that Fauci was funding bat virus research at the Wuhan lab (shock, horror!). Well, that would be a bit out of the ordinary because the NIH almost exclusively funds research in U.S. facilities. But a small fraction of funding does go overseas, and having access to bats that are presumed to have caused the SARS pandemic would give NIH a good reason to fund a Wuhan lab, especially if they had U.S. collaborators.

But the point is, accepting an NIH grand involves a lot of oversight, such as quarterly reports in which you have to brag about what fantastic results have been obtained since the last report, lest the grant be canceled, and requirements that detailed information is about novel reagents or sequences be stored in institutional databases. They would have trouble keeping secrets. Anyway, any NIH grants are in a publicly accessible database. Anyone with an internet connection can look them up.

[JBS]

To believe the claim that the virus epidemic was caused by accidental release by the lab that was studying it is like believing that people in Detroit were not poisoned by their drinking water, they were poisoned by accidental release of drinking water samples collected by the lab that was measuring lead levels.

So lead in water is contagious?

If the virus was accidently released in the lab, the Chinese have an extra motivation to hide that fact. In the end, whatever evidence there is is under the control of the Chinese authorities, which means skepticism is called for.  One can maintain that lab officials and researchers never ever lie to protect their own institution, of course, just like one can maintain that captains in the British Navy never ever get sick at sea.

[JBS]

It just occurred to me, I read a scandal piece to the effect that Fauci was funding bat virus research at the Wuhan lab (shock, horror!). Well, that would be a bit out of the ordinary because the NIH almost exclusively funds research in U.S. facilities. But a small fraction of funding does go overseas, and having access to bats that are presumed to have caused the SARS pandemic would give NIH a good reason to fund a Wuhan lab, especially if they had U.S. collaborators.

But the point is, accepting an NIH grand involves a lot of oversight, such as quarterly reports in which you have to brag about what fantastic results have been obtained since the last report, lest the grant be canceled, and requirements that detailed information is about novel reagents or sequences be stored in institutional databases. They would have trouble keeping secrets. Anyway, any NIH grants are in a publicly accessible database. Anyone with an internet connection can look them up.

If I remember correctly, that "funding" was the team of observers pulled out of Wuhan by the Trump administration because we obviously didn't need to worry about Chinese viruses.

[Karl Henning]

If I remember correctly, that "funding" was the team of observers pulled out of Wuhan by the Trump administration because we obviously didn't need to worry about Chinese viruses.

Oh, yeah, the guy who says he shares his uncle's science genius . . . .

[drogulus]

     

If the virus was accidently released in the lab, the Chinese have an extra motivation to hide that fact.

     Oh sure, they'd try to cover up an actual release. There's no reason to believe it happened, but if it did they'd deny it, and we'd know they were lying.

[BasilValentine]

The researcher is a Chinese official...or at least heavily dependent on Chinese officials whom she needs to keep herself in the position of chief researcher. Therefore anything she says ought to be treated with the skepticism with which anything said by Chinese officials  in any context  should be treated.

So it's hardly bulletproof.

Noting the fact that Chinese bureaucrats  don't have a strict allegiance to telling the truth is not Trumpian propaganda.

Why are you nattering about the trustworthiness of bureaucrats? Read the frickin' science:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9.pdf

[Florestan]

It just occurred to me, I read a scandal piece to the effect that Fauci was funding bat virus research at the Wuhan lab (shock, horror!). Well, that would be a bit out of the ordinary because the NIH almost exclusively funds research in U.S. facilities. But a small fraction of funding does go overseas, and having access to bats that are presumed to have caused the SARS pandemic would give NIH a good reason to fund a Wuhan lab, especially if they had U.S. collaborators.

But the point is, accepting an NIH grand involves a lot of oversight, such as quarterly reports in which you have to brag about what fantastic results have been obtained since the last report, lest the grant be canceled, and requirements that detailed information is about novel reagents or sequences be stored in institutional databases. They would have trouble keeping secrets. Anyway, any NIH grants are in a publicly accessible database. Anyone with an internet connection can look them up.

I did just that. It turns out that the grant has absolutely nothing to do with the Wuhan lab and absolutely nothing to do with bats. It is a grant to Wuhan University and is about Kaposi Sarcoma:

KSHV is the etiological agent of Kaposi' Sarcoma (KS), which is one of the major malignancies in AIDS patients and common neoplasm in KSHV endemic region including Xinjiang China. In the proposed studies we will focus on the versatile function of LANA in KSHV-related tumorigenesis and angiogenesis. The results would provide unique and novel clues for targeted therapeutic development for treatment of KS disease.

Read the full description of the grant here: https://projectreporter.nih.gov/project_info_description.cfm?aid=9668020&icde=49846307&ddparam=&ddvalue=&ddsub=&cr=1&csb=default&cs=ASC&pball=

That scandal piece is just that, a scandal piece containing gross misinformation.

[Herman]

Pages and pages about various Lab Theories...

You guys have been sent down a rabbit hole by Trump who wants to distract the public from his miserable performance and point the finger at China  -  including weird notions of "punishing" China.

Like Benghazi / HRC it's sufficiently vague to continue for ages, and there will never be a conclusion, even though numerous scientists have said and written there is zero evidence for these theories, and there is evidence to the contrary.

It's a political game.

[MusicTurner]

Back in late April, a columnist in the Swedish paper Aftonbladet, Wolfgang Hansson, had an overview bid, about long-term developments. He admits though, that he might be wrong in some respects.

1) there'll be bigger acceptance of fatalities for quite a long time, the strive for a better economy becoming more important. It will be very difficult to re-introduce big lock-downs again. But the health sectors will tend to receive increased support. Mass testing will increase
2) schools will become some of the first places to re-open, teachers will be regularly tested if possible
3) international mass tourism, as we knew it before the crisis, will tend to re-open only quite late and gradually
4) there'll be a general, deep recession
5) China will probably increase its power, and the US will be weakened, since it is poorly equipped to handle the crisis, due to its system and the current president. Unless there's an international reaction against China as being responsible for the outbreak
6) an increased inequaliy, famine and poverty in the world generally
7) decrease in the globalization trends, increase in nationally orientated measures and productions
8 ) a collapse in the oil price, probably lasting at least a year, will affect some economies severely, like Russia, Venezuela, Iran etc., & it might cause regime changes
9) The EU appears generally very weakened, but the economical union will continue, due to its advantages
10) The general freedom of movement will decrease too
11) the principles of social distancing will continue, at least for quite a foreseeable future

Cf. https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/kolumnister/a/K3mOzy/sa-ser-varlden-ut-efter-corona

[Florestan]

numerous scientists have said and written there is zero evidence for these theories, and there is evidence to the contrary.

Based on the available evidence, scientists have said that it is, quote, improbable that the virus be man-made, unquote. I'm okay with that.

But for the idea that the virus, although not man-made, was studied in the Wuhan lab and accidentally escaped there is no available evidence, neither for, nor to the contrary, other than what the director of the lab said. I'm not okay with that.

It's a political game.

How ironic, given that the first to play politics with the situation were the Chinese officials themselves who downplayed the whole thing and silenced the doctors who warned them about the new threat, just because a CCP congress was scheduled in Wuhan and nothing, not even an extremely dangerous epidemics, should stand in the Party's way.

It's obvious that China badly mismanaged the outbreak of the epidemics, for ideological reasons. Had they put the health of their own citizens ahead of any ideological prejudice and CCP interest, they'd have acted quicker and more determined and would have greatly contained the epidemics before it spread worldwide. They did not* and the whole mess exploded internationally, whereupon they began a massive campaign of propaganda and misinformation in order to cover up their responsibility.

*with the complicity of the WHO, which at least in the first phases of the pandemics (which it actually did not even declared as such until it was too late) parroted the Chinese lies.

Yes, it's politics, but you're pointing in one direction only, while ignoring how and why the whole mess started.

[ritter]

Haven't seen this posted here before:

"Fauci: No scientific evidence the coronavirus was made in a Chinese lab... Based on the scientific evidence, he also doesn't entertain an alternate theory—that someone found the coronavirus in the wild, brought it to a lab, and then it accidentally escaped".

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/

[JBS]

Why are you nattering about the trustworthiness of bureaucrats? Read the frickin' science:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9.pdf

I did, thank you.

In this particular point, it rules against the lab theory based on speculation about evidence it admits we don't actually  have.

[drogulus]

Pages and pages about various Lab Theories...

You guys have been sent down a rabbit hole by Trump who wants to distract the public from his miserable performance and point the finger at China  -  including weird notions of "punishing" China.

     One sign of beliefy vulnerability to propaganda is embracing the propaganda of the opposing side. We can do batter by rejecting the notion that truth has a side, that it's not automatic that Trumpists lie even though they often do. By neutral truth criteria the lab release narrative stinks of the motivations of its proponents.

     There are better reasons to hate the ChiComs than believing bogus shit about them. The truth is good enough.

[j winter]

Pages and pages about various Lab Theories...

You guys have been sent down a rabbit hole by Trump who wants to distract the public from his miserable performance and point the finger at China  -  including weird notions of "punishing" China.

Like Benghazi / HRC it's sufficiently vague to continue for ages, and there will never be a conclusion, even though numerous scientists have said and written there is zero evidence for these theories, and there is evidence to the contrary.

It's a political game.

+1 

[greg]

Based on the available evidence, scientists have said that it is, quote, improbable that the virus be man-made, unquote. I'm okay with that.

But for the idea that the virus, although not man-made, was studied in the Wuhan lab and accidentally escaped there is no available evidence, neither for, nor to the contrary, other than what the director of the lab said. I'm not okay with that.

How ironic, given that the first to play politics with the situation were the Chinese officials themselves who downplayed the whole thing and silenced the doctors who warned them about the new threat, just because a CCP congress was scheduled in Wuhan and nothing, not even an extremely dangerous epidemics, should stand in the Party's way.

It's obvious that China badly mismanaged the outbreak of the epidemics, for ideological reasons. Had they put the health of their own citizens ahead of any ideological prejudice and CCP interest, they'd have acted quicker and more determined and would have greatly contained the epidemics before it spread worldwide. They did not* and the whole mess exploded internationally, whereupon they began a massive campaign of propaganda and misinformation in order to cover up their responsibility.

*with the complicity of the WHO, which at least in the first phases of the pandemics (which it actually did not even declared as such until it was too late) parroted the Chinese lies.

Yes, it's politics, but you're pointing in one direction only, while ignoring how and why the whole mess started.

Thank you also for clarifying so I don't have to.

There are too many pages so Herman probably didn't read. Even I have skipped reading many pages on this thread.

[JBS]

One sign of beliefy vulnerability to propaganda is embracing the propaganda of the opposing side. We can do batter by rejecting the notion that truth has a side, that it's not automatic that Chinese officials lie even though they often do. By neutral truth criteria the it did not come from the lab  narrative stinks of the motivations of its proponents.

     There are better reasons to hate Trump than believing bogus shit about them. The truth is good enough.

[drogulus]

One sign of beliefy vulnerability to propaganda is embracing the propaganda of the opposing side. We can do batter by rejecting the notion that truth has a side, that it's not automatic that Chinese officials lie even though they often do. By neutral truth criteria the it did not come from the lab  narrative stinks of the motivations of its proponents.

     There are better reasons to hate Trump than believing bogus shit about them. The truth is good enough.

     

     You still need evidence for a lab release,  and "ChiCommies are liars" isn't that. Of course they lie. But nothing is true because a liar says it's false. The Chinese may deny they are descendants of Martian Bat-Rat-Spiders, but that doesn't prove they are.

     

      OK, it does look a little Chinese.

     

     

[Florestan]

"Fauci: No scientific evidence the coronavirus was made in a Chinese lab... Based on the scientific evidence, he also doesn't entertain an alternate theory—that someone found the coronavirus in the wild, brought it to a lab, and then it accidentally escaped".

Good evening, Rafael.

This is not an alternate theory, this is a fairy tale. Of course one is completely unable to "find a virus in the wild", let alone "bring it to a lab." Formulated thus it's a strawman. I think that not even the most lunatic conspiracy theorist ever claimed that.

The "alternate theory" is about the bats which were being studied in that lab prior to the outbreak of the pandemics. If there is scientific evidence that (1) none of them was already infected with the naturally-mutated virus, or (2) even if infected none of them could have infected one or more researchers, or (3) even if one or more researchers could have been infected none of them could have infected anybody outside the lab, then the case is closed. The problem is that there is not. All we have is a statement of the lab's director saying that they did not have the virus. Well, Mr. Fauci probably trusts her, and so do some people here on GMG, but personally I don't see how a simple statement (especially one made by an interested party and especially one made by someone operating under extreme ideological pressure and control from a Communist government) can be regarded as scientific evidence.