Coronavirus thread

[Que]

I suspect they're planning to use COVID to push the NHS to breaking point, and then they'll privatise it, giving their friends a slice of the potentially lucrative UK health pie.

Underfunding is definitely a serious problem, but from Dutch experience I can confirm that privatisation is definitely NOT the solution....

Q

[Florestan]

Underfunding is definitely a serious problem, but from Dutch experience I can confirm that privatisation is definitely NOT the solution....

Q

What is the solution, in your opinion? (I have none of my own, the problem is far and away beyond my competence).

[Mandryka]

privatisation is definitely NOT the solution....

That depends what you see the problem as being. Put it like this, privatisation is a solution if you're a Tory.

[Iota]

I suspect they're planning to use COVID to push the NHS to breaking point, and then they'll privatise it, giving their friends a slice of the potentially lucrative UK health pie.

'We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.'

Aesop


I have no idea what the answer to the problem of future funding of the NHS is, it will certainly only grow as the population ages, but I agree privatisation is not the route to go.

Perhaps stripping away some of the wasteful (non-medical) layers of middle management, less dependence on locums (far more expensive than using in-house staff), innovation in technology that enables e.g earlier detections of illnesses, and greater possibility of people being properly treated at home virtually, could be part of the mix.
And outside of the pandemic, hospitals were sometimes doubling up as social care agencies for elderly/vulnerable people, and beds remained taken up by people who could be at home, and would probably prefer to be, if there was a system to look after them.

Crucially I think it needs also the wind of political will and cohesion to fill its sails, and this seems in very short supply. : (

[71 dB]

The vaccination here, in the Netherlands, has barely started...

A combination of ordering late, organizing late, continious shifts in priority and mismanagement due to several "reforms" of the healthcare system by the neoliberal governments of the past decade...

Since I'm under 60 and perfectly healthy, I'm lucky if I would get my shot late this summer.
Though the timelines on when Western countries will have this under control are continously shifting backwards anyway...

Q

Last time I checked 82.000 Finns had been vaccinated. We could go faster if the vaccine manufacturers were able to deliver what they originally promised. I just turned 50, so I won't be expecting anything before summer, but my father, 82, could perhaps get it during the latter half of February with some luck.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Last time I checked 82.000 Finns had been vaccinated. We could go faster if the vaccine manufacturers were able to deliver what they originally promised. I just turned 50, so I won't be expecting anything before summer, but my father, 82, could perhaps get it during the latter half of February with some luck.

I suspect that all governments are struggling to figure out how to get the vaccines out and the best way.  In the USA, the powers-that-be have reminded news media that there are a number of issues/problems to deal with; I imagine that the supply chain is part of it, how to convince people that it's safe and that it's important to get the vaccines, how and where to distribute the doses, how to make sure that we can get and have enough medical supplies in order to distribute it (medical equipment)...there's a lot of logistics and I think planning involved....including making sure that people can (if needed) and do get a second round of a vaccine.  And how do you get it to people in more rural areas?

[Mandryka]

'We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.'

Aesop

Hope you saw this

Tory donor Lord Ashcroft's outsourcing firm lands £350m vaccination contract

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-tory-donor-lord-ashcrofts-outsourcing-firm-given-350m-vaccination-contract/

[Holden]

I suspect that all governments are struggling to figure out how to get the vaccines out and the best way.  In the USA, the powers-that-be have reminded news media that there are a number of issues/problems to deal with; I imagine that the supply chain is part of it, how to convince people that it's safe and that it's important to get the vaccines, how and where to distribute the doses, how to make sure that we can get and have enough medical supplies in order to distribute it (medical equipment)...there's a lot of logistics and I think planning involved....including making sure that people can (if needed) and do get a second round of a vaccine.  And how do you get it to people in more rural areas?

Australia's plans seem a little vague. For example

State and territory governments will each be responsible for developing their COVID-19 vaccination implementation plans, in line with the national COVID-19 Vaccination Policy and Australian Government expectations.

With the current issues with different expectations from the states as to whether state borders stay open or are shut I would have preferred to see this as a federal exercise.

As for where you go to get your jab this is what the federal govt is saying

Locations may, over time, include:
•   General practice clinics.
•   GP Respiratory Clinics (established for COVID-19 assessment and testing).
•   Dedicated vaccination clinics,established by State and Territory health services (including local councils).
•   Workplace vaccinations.

The concerns here are the first dotpoint - asking our already hard working medical practitioners to take on an extra load. Also the third point which will rely on the various state govts to do the roll out. While I like the idea of dedicated vaccination points, how these will be handled will vary considerably because it is state and territory based. One only has to look at how Victoria dropped the ball last year resulting in over 800 unnecessary deaths in nursing homes to worry that the process will be cocked up.

We start next month. My age and occupation put me well up the priority list. What I am wondering is how I will be notified that it's time for my jab. I'll find out I guess.

One final point. I'm hearing from a growing number of acquaintances that they don't trust the vaccine and therefore won't have it. Apart from basing their decision on little to no evidence I'm assuming that they never intend to travel anywhere by plane ever again as they won't have the vaccination certificate that will allow them to buy an airline ticket.

[T. D.]

https://sports.yahoo.com/michigan-suspends-all-athletics-test-positive-superspreader-covid-strain-034727735.html

The University of Michigan is suspending all athletic activities "until further notice and up to 14 days" after several individuals linked to the athletic department tested positive for the COVID-19 B.1.1.7 variant, the school announced Saturday.

The number of confirmed cases is currently five, with 15 more presumed positives according to The Michigan Daily. The new strain was reportedly introduced at the beginning of the semester (Jan. 19) by a Michigan athlete from the United Kingdom, per the Daily.

All members of the athletic department will immediately quarantine up to Feb. 7, but no determination has been made about games scheduled beyond that date. Among the affected programs is the men's basketball team, which is currently ranked seventh in the country in the AP poll.

[Que]

What is the solution, in your opinion? (I have none of my own, the problem is far and away beyond my competence).

If I knew the perfect solution for that, they would give me the Nobel price.

Risks with a state run system are bureaucracy and inefficiency and suboptimal quality.

Privitisation also leads to inefficiency, but of a different kind: resources are no longer pooled.
Privitisation leads to companies trying to optimise their profits, and not the quality of the care. Another problem is risk selection: insurers will try to attract healthier clients, hospitals will focus on the most profitable treatements.

A universal healthcare system with some market elements mixed in, will probably be the best solution.
But I haven't seen the right mix yet. In the Netherlands the privitisation of hospitals and of home care hasn't proven to be such an amazing idea. The full privitisation of health care insurance, with mandatory minimum package, universal acceptance and risk compensation between insurers, worked a bit better. Private insurers push hospitals for better quality, but are also trying to fob people off with cheaper medications....

Q

[Mandryka]

Some encouraging data coming out of Israel

https://mobile.twitter.com/wendyburn/status/1353309155520602119?s=21

[Florestan]

A universal healthcare system with some market elements mixed in, will probably be the best solution.

Agreed but then again which is the right ratio of state to market? I have no idea whatsoever and honestly I think this is a problem which has no rational  --- as opposed to ideological --- solution. Be it as it might, I think there are two extremes which should be avoided: to exclude the state / market or to accept nothing but the state / market.

[MusicTurner]

We've had a couple of anti-restriction demonstrations here in Copenhagen, unpopular among the general public, by a mixed group of about 200-500 youngsters from the extreme right and left, and some seemingly naive people people believing in various conspiracies. About 100 of them had some tendencies to police confrontation and vandalism. The police dissolved the demonstrations when they went off the rails. Yesterday some of the participants hung up a doll of the PM, with a written sign that she needed to be 'culled', referring to the recent mink case, and they then put fire to it.
It's a type of action that is very rare, and quite unheard of, here. Some say that other participants took the doll down and extinguished the fire. But three protagonists for the doll action have now been arrested; no doubt they didn't quite consider - or know - that they face a court case, potentially with up to 16 years in prison, for threatening government officials (but likely much less). A fourth is on a want list.

[Mandryka]

We've had a couple of anti-restriction demonstrations here in Copenhagen, unpopular among the general public, by a mixed group of about 200-500 youngsters from the extreme right and left, and some seemingly naive people people believing in various conspiracies. About 100 of them had some tendencies to police confrontation and vandalism. The police dissolved the demonstrations when they went off the rails. Yesterday some of the participants hung up a doll of the PM, with a written sign that she needed to be 'culled', referring to the recent mink case, and they then put fire to it.
It's a type of action that is very rare, and quite unheard of, here. Some say that other participants took the doll down and extinguished the fire. But three protagonists for the doll action have now been arrested; no doubt they didn't quite consider - or know - that they face a court case, potentially with up to 16 years in prison, for threatening government officials (but likely much less). A fourth is on a want list.

Hard to know what to say about this sort of thing, similar things have happened elsewhere. If the vaccines prove to be disappointing I suspect we're in for some very turbulent times politically.

[SimonNZ]

Longish interview with Anthony Fauci on the Rachel Maddow show:

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9wb2RjYXN0ZmVlZHMubmJjbmV3cy5jb20vbXNuYmMtcmFjaGVsLW1hZGRvdw/episode/Z2lkOi8vYXJ0MTktZXBpc29kZS1sb2NhdG9yL1YwL2VwZ3Nid3JscEMta2xORUtQRFpGOGRVeG5lTEJIX2hWMzRnUko5bktoUEE?hl=en-IN&ved=2ahUKEwixsdbAobXuAhVOeX0KHRm1CjQQjrkEegQIHBAF&ep=6

he makes it clear near the end of the interview that this is the first time he's been allowed to appear as her guest


Unfolding local situation with a woman who was in managed isolation for two weeks tested negative twice but has started a potential community spread after release. Luckily she was diligent about using the contact tracing app and the health experts can now quickly test everywhere she's been.

[Karl Henning]

Agreed but then again which is the right ratio of state to market?

There is no fixed "right ratio" there are ratios which are right for the time and circumstances.

[Florestan]

There is no fixed "right ratio" there are ratios which are right for the time and circumstances.

Indeed.

[Irons]

Agreed but then again which is the right ratio of state to market? I have no idea whatsoever and honestly I think this is a problem which has no rational  --- as opposed to ideological --- solution. Be it as it might, I think there are two extremes which should be avoided: to exclude the state / market or to accept nothing but the state / market.

Yes, I agree. Here in the UK our NHS is one of the few things as a nation we can be proud of. The monetary cost does not bear thing about though and isn't sustainable in the medium or long term. Politically impossible to change to an official state/private partnership but to get around this the NHS pays the private sector. In my location all knee and hip replacements are performed in a private hospital for the NHS, indeed I had cataract surgery recently at the same hospital and treated as a fee paying private patient.     

[vandermolen]

Yes, I agree. Here in the UK our NHS is one of the few things as a nation we can be proud of. The monetary cost does not bear thing about though and isn't sustainable in the medium or long term. Politically impossible to change to an official state/private partnership but to get around this the NHS pays the private sector. In my location all knee and hip replacements are performed in a private hospital for the NHS, indeed I had cataract surgery recently at the same hospital and treated as a fee paying private patient.   

Yes, I've also had various investigations at a private hospital as an NHS client and am grateful for it.

[MusicTurner]

Moderna now says that their vaccine is expected to work against the new UK and South-Africa mutations

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN29U1HC