Coronavirus thread

[Florestan]

SA scientists confirm Omicron cases are less severe than Delta

Omicron causes less-severe illness than the earlier Delta variant of Covid-19, a South African study has found.

The results thereof, available in a preprint, show people infected with Omicron have an 80% lower chance of being admitted to hospital.

However, those who are admitted have no significantly lower chance of experiencing severe disease, co-author Prof Cheryl Cohen said during a National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) media briefing on Wednesday.

"We can't tell from this data how much is from vaccination, previous infection or the intrinsic reduced virulence of the virus. This is because most previous infections are not diagnosed," said Cohen, who leads the NICD respiratory diseases unit.

"However, in SA Omicron is behaving in a way that is less severe and this is likely to be the same in sub-Saharan African countries with similar very high levels of previous infection.

"What is unclear is whether the picture will be similar in countries with high levels of vaccination, but very low levels of previous infection."

Cohen said the sharp increases in hospitalisations in Europe and the US were probably due to it being winter there, the fact that immunity is due more to vaccinations than the more robust protection provided by previous infection and an older age profile.

(emphasis mine)

[André]

Finally had my booster vaccine today (Moderna). I was easily the oldest there - the others were the technology savvy youngsters who had snapped up all the appointments. Apparently there are 100,000 over 65 year olds (like me) who are not 'refuseniks' but who have simply been unable to book an appointment. I had to drive some distance to the nearest vaccine centre where I could get an appointment. Because I had a booked appointment I only had to wait 5-10 minutes in the queue and not for 4 hours for a 'walk-in' appointment. I had to wait 15 mins in the car afterwards to check that I was ok. Felt very tired and a bit disorientated and spaced out but am told that is my normal state  . Feel fine now.

Same here, had my Moderna booster shot yesterday. Since I had an appointment I didn't wait, actually was ushered in 5 mins ahead of schedule. Just a bit of soreness on the injection site.

My wife, who went to see her family in Belgium last month developed covid once back here. She may have been infected on the return flight. Stuffed nose, loss of smell and taste, but she's fine now. Had she not been double-vaccinated I believe she would have developed a worse case of the disease.

Health authorities here limit the number of house gatherings to 10 people on Dec 24 and 25. That'll be reduced as of the 26th. We went from less than 1000 cases 2 weeks ago to over 6000 today for a population of 8.5 Mi.

[Spotted Horses]

I have just become eligible for a booster, alas it won't be possible to schedule it until the first week of January.

I am amazed to see large scale lock-downs suggested. Our civilization can't continue with large scale lock downs, and especially school closures. The lockdowns were necessary and effective measures to slow the progress of the pandemic and keep health care systems from collapsing until a vaccine could be developed. Now we have the vaccine. At this point the disease is here to stay and we have to wait for it to equilibrate and become and endemic disease, which will will moderately affect the vaccinated population.

[prémont]

Omicron symptoms are often mild and like a cold, not with breathing problems or loss of taste/smell etc. In the Norwegian Christmas party, now surveyed, more than 50% experienced, and starting with the most common,

But note that the average age of the participants was only 36.

Ullum from SSI on the just finished press conference said that the preliminary data from Denmark seem to indicate that there is no obvious clinical difference between infections with Omikron, Alfa or Delta variants.

[Florestan]

Germany, 2021 AD



Don't Buy from the Unvaccinated!



Gas the Unvaccinated!

Any resemblance to past historical events is probably purely coincidental but the mere fact that some deranged minds could even think of that is deeply disturbing.

[prémont]

Any resemblance to past historical events is probably purely coincidental ..

Nor do I think the comparison holds true. The hate against the Jews was not only abominable but also absurd because the Jews were socially conscious people who contributed to Germany's intellectual and technological development, whereas the vaccine opponents today are antisocial people by heart who disregard the fact that their unvaccinated status is directly harmful to the rest of us and to society as a whole. Aggression against antivaxers is therefore understandable, but the way it is expressed in the pictures above is of course detestable.

[Florestan]

I am amazed to see large scale lock-downs suggested. Our civilization can't continue with large scale lock downs, and especially school closures. The lockdowns were necessary and effective measures to slow the progress of the pandemic and keep health care systems from collapsing until a vaccine could be developed. Now we have the vaccine. At this point the disease is here to stay and we have to wait for it to equilibrate and become and endemic disease, which will will moderately affect the vaccinated population.

It is indeed astonishing and even a bit scary to see counries with very high vaccination rates and effective early teatment schemes getting again into a lockdown & restrictions frenzy. If vaccines work in greatly reducing the risk of hospitalization and death and antivirals are widely available for early treatment then why this panic any more?

Actually, this panic and frenzy is specific to the EU and parts of the USA. The rest of the world, including their media, have a more relaxed and rational approach, and they are not even half as vaccinated as the Western world. Why this is so I won't venture to speculate on. I just notice the fact.

[Todd]

Aggression against antivaxers is therefore understandable

Not really.

[Todd]

Actually, this panic and frenzy is specific to the EU and parts of the USA.

It is bizarre and humorous to watch the panic.  I have multiple family members that work for a massive healthcare delivery company, one at an administrative level, and the information I get from them on the current state of delivery and shortages (or lack thereof) are at odds with what the press reports.  Starkly so in some cases.  I know this is both anecdotal and localized, but it is not possible to believe press stories about the current situation when one has access to published data available directly from public health authorities and first-hand experience from health care professionals. 

[prémont]

Now we have the vaccine. At this point the disease is here to stay and we have to wait for it to equilibrate and become and endemic disease, which will will moderately affect the vaccinated population.

The vaccines are not as efficient as we thought they would be, because they for obvious reasons were not directed towards the omikron variant in the first hand. And the omikron is so contagious, that a relatively high degree of restrictions are necessary to prevent "wild" spreading due to the fact, that a large part of the population is unvaccinated and the fact that omikron very often infects people who have been vaccinated against the alfa variant or earlier infected by the alfa or delta variant.

[prémont]

Not really.

Would you mind to elaborate?

[Todd]

Would you mind to elaborate?

Aggression is not understandable. 

[Florestan]

the vaccine opponents today are antisocial people by heart

You paint with a wide brush. Very wide, actually.

who disregard the fact that their unvaccinated status is directly harmful to the rest of us and to society as a whole.

Given the recent evolutions which have shown beyond dispute that vaccines can greatly reduce the hospitalizations and deaths but they cannot greatly reduce the infections (heck, highly vaccinated countries witness an alarming surge of infections and therefore go into a locdown & restrictions frenzy), the sentence above is factually incorrect and unnecessarily inflamed. Sorry, I can't put it any milder than that.

Let me ask you a question: suppose a close relative, or a good friend of yours is unvaccinated. Would you cut all direct contacts with them?

Aggression against antivaxers is therefore understandable,

Of course. Any irrational behavior becomes understandable when driven by fear, especially induced fear.

[Mandryka]

SA scientists confirm Omicron cases are less severe than Delta

Omicron causes less-severe illness than the earlier Delta variant of Covid-19, a South African study has found.

The results thereof, available in a preprint, show people infected with Omicron have an 80% lower chance of being admitted to hospital.

However, those who are admitted have no significantly lower chance of experiencing severe disease, co-author Prof Cheryl Cohen said during a National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) media briefing on Wednesday.

"We can't tell from this data how much is from vaccination, previous infection or the intrinsic reduced virulence of the virus. This is because most previous infections are not diagnosed," said Cohen, who leads the NICD respiratory diseases unit.

"However, in SA Omicron is behaving in a way that is less severe and this is likely to be the same in sub-Saharan African countries with similar very high levels of previous infection.

"What is unclear is whether the picture will be similar in countries with high levels of vaccination, but very low levels of previous infection."

Cohen said the sharp increases in hospitalisations in Europe and the US were probably due to it being winter there, the fact that immunity is due more to vaccinations than the more robust protection provided by previous infection and an older age profile.

(emphasis mine)

The key sentence is in the preprint

Some of this reducton is likely a result of high population immunity.

In other words, the study shows that the SA population is less likely to get severely ill with omicron now than they were with delta before, because they have some immunity - they caught delta and recovered. It does not show that omicron is less likely to cause severe disease than delta in an arbitrary population, because of an intrinsic property of the virus.

So we in the UK, to take an example close to my heart, cannot use the study to argue that omicron will be less likely to make a Brit go to hospital than delta. Our delta epidemic was already mitigated by vaccine based immunity.

(This reads back like gobbledygook, sorry!)

[Florestan]

It is bizarre and humorous to watch the panic.  I have multiple family members that work for a massive healthcare delivery company, one at an administrative level, and the information I get from them on the current state of delivery and shortages (or lack thereof) are at odds with what the press reports.  Starkly so in some cases.  I know this is both anecdotal and localized, but it is not possible to believe press stories about the current situation when one has access to published data available directly from public health authorities and first-hand experience from health care professionals.

Yes, I'm convinced the Western media, Romanian included, have greatly contributed to amplifying the panic and fear to almost hysterical levels. I have multiple family members living in three countries spread over two continents (Europe and Africa) so my evidence is also anecdotal and localized, but entirely in line with your own.

[Mandryka]

Germany, 2021 AD



Don't Buy from the Unvaccinated!



Gas the Unvaccinated!

Any resemblance to past historical events is probably purely coincidental but the mere fact that some deranged minds could even think of that is deeply disturbing.

When I was a child British people used to say about the Nazis, the concentration camps "it couldn't happen here." As a teenager I used to laugh at them, I argued they were complacent, I used to say that it could well have happened here, that British people were no less racist, no less anti-Jewish, no less intolerant than Germans, French etc. And no less willing to use strong arm tactics.

However, looking at how the covid pandemic is evolving from a social point of view, I'm not so sure I was right.

[Florestan]

In other words, the study shows that the SA population is less likely to get severely ill with omicron now than they were with delta before, because they have some immunity - they caught delta and recovered. It does not show that omicron is less likely to cause severe disease than delta in an arbitrary population, because of an intrinsic property of the virus.

So we in the UK, to take an example close to my heart, cannot use the study to argue that omicron will be less likely to make a Brit go to hospital than delta. Our delta epidemic was already mitigated by vaccine based immunity.

(This reads back like gobbledygook, sorry!)

Oh, no, you're right and that Cohen lady said it explicitly.

I think the good news reported in the study is mainly for nations with a high degree of natural immunity, ie a high percentage of the population got Covid in whatever variant and recxovered, either officially registered or not. Happily, Romania is among them. A recent British study estimated tha a full 70% of our population got Covid and recovered. Add to this the 40% who are vaccinated, allow for the overlap between the two categories and we can conclude that at least 60-70% of Romanians have developed some form of immunity. I'd day thjis bodes well for the future, but only time will tell. What is known as a fact is that Romania is right now the only EU country where the infections are way below the 3-per-thousand threshold --- the only green country in a sea of red ones.

[prémont]

Given the recent evolutions which have shown beyond dispute that vaccines can greatly reduce the hospitalizations and deaths but they cannot greatly reduce the infections (heck, highly vaccinated countries witness an alarming surge of infections and therefore go into a locdown & restrictions frenzy), the sentence above is factually incorrect and unnecessarily inflamed. Sorry, I can't put it any milder than that.

Firstly: The vaccines can to a large degree reduce infections. It's true that vaccinated people also spread the virus when infected but they do this in a shorter period and to a lesser degree. Therefore the interest the society has got in getting all people vaccinated making them less contagious to the vulnerable group of the society.

Secondly: The vaccines reduce to some extent clinical disease. This means that unvaccinated people get more ill when infected and will need hospitalisation more often. This may by itself become a large burden upon the hospitals, which will affect the treatment of other diseases eg. of vaccinated people.

Let me ask you a question: suppose a close relative, or a good friend of yours is unvaccinated. Would you cut all direct contacts with them?

I would have to, but only physical contact of course. I belong to the ultravulnerable group with a high risk of serious disease if I get infected.

Of course. Any irrational behavior becomes understandable when driven by fear, especially induced fear.

Its too easy to talk about fear. It's reality.

[Florestan]

When I was a child British people used to say about the Nazis, the concentration camps "it couldn't happen here." As a teenager I used to laugh at them, I argued they were complacent, I used to say that it could well have happened here, that British people were no less racist, no less anti-Jewish, no less intolerant than Germans, French etc.

However, looking at how the covid pandemic is evolving from a social point of view, I'm not so sure I was right.

I'd say that given the right moment, the right opportunity and the right propaganda, totalitarianism can happen everywhere --- it's only that for several reasons some countries are a more fertile ground for it than others.

And actually concentration camps are just a subset of totalitarian policies and not even a mandatory one. Nothing of the sort ever existed in Communist Romania.

[greg]

whereas the vaccine opponents today are antisocial people by heart who disregard the fact that their unvaccinated status is directly harmful to the rest of us and to society as a whole. Aggression against antivaxers is therefore understandable,

No, dude... just no...

I will be fair and mention that I think being vehemently against them (no the mandates, the vaccines) is probably a bit dumb. Maybe some of the most extremist people are antisocial.

And another thought, not directed at you, since I do see the distinction in your post.
Unvaxxed and antivaxxers are different groups, even if there is some overlap. Probably important for people to be extra careful in how they conceive of these two groups. Unvaxxed are mostly not antisocial.
(just wanted to mention that even though that isn't what you are saying. Unjumbling these groups is a good thing.)