Coronavirus thread

[JBS]

It seems appropriate to have  a dedicated thread to COVID 19, given it's a worldwide event.
So here it is.

[greg]

I just wanna work from home next week so I can play video games most of the day. Would be a blessing in disguise.

[Que]

I just wanna work from home next week so I can play video games most of the day. Would be a blessing in disguise.

Oh, you think the whole thing will be done in a week's time?
Not in a week, not in a month, and probably not not even in year's time...
This virus is here to stay. Normality will only be restored when the larger part of the world population has developed a certain level of immune response, either through recovery after infection or through inocculation with a vaccine.
Estimations are that during this "first wave" of the epidemic 40-70% of the world population will get infected.

Q

[greg]

Oh, you think the whole thing will be done in a week's time?
Not in a week, not in a month, and probably not not even in year's time...
This virus is here to stay. Normality will only be restored when the larger part of the world population has developed a certain level of immune response, either through recovery after infection or through inocculation with a vaccine.
Estimations are that during this "first wave" of the epidemic 40-70% of the world population will get infected.

Q

Forgot to add the word "starting" before "next week"...

[Daverz]

I'm all set for my food supply, but I'm worried about water*.  All the advisories say to have 3 weeks of water stored.  Assuming conditions get so bad that the water supply is shut off or undrinkable, I only have enough containers here at home for about 10 gallons of water.   

* OK, I admit I'm worried about the beer supply as well.

[arkiv]

Was this virus created in laboratories?

[SimonNZ]

Was this virus created in laboratories?

No. Wuhan has a virology lab, but there's a global consensus among scientists that this originated in nature - in some not yet fully understood way.

[vandermolen]

Re: Panic buying

My daughter has texted me that one of her former colleagues is stock-piling custard.
Sounds sensible to me.

Thank you Jeffrey (JBS not me) for starting this thread. I was going to do this myself but thought that people have probably had enough of new threads from me.

A lot of people are working from home. East Sussex where I live (famous last words) does not currently have any cases as far as I'm aware, although there is believed to be a big discrepancy between official confirmed cases and the real situation.

[vandermolen]

Was this virus created in laboratories?

I agree with Simon NZ although a friend contacted me yesterday pointing out that the American author Dean Koontz's novel 'The Eyes of Darkness' (1981) features a global pandemic breaking out in 2020 as a consequence of a biological weapon called 'Wuhan-400'!

https://www.india.com/lifestyle/did-authors-dean-koontz-and-sylvia-browne-really-predict-coronavirus-outbreak-back-in-1981-and-2008-3967957/

My school is staying open for now and lots of the children live abroad anyway. All the overseas school trips are cancelled. The UK governments is facing criticism for not going further, like the French or Irish for example, but I'm not sure that they are wrong and they seem to be following the advice of medical experts.

I was due to travel to Coventry today for a History examiner's meeting but that has been cancelled which I think is sensible.

Hope everyone here (GMG forum not just UK) keeps safe and well.

[Mandryka]

The UK governments is facing criticism for not going further, like the French or Irish for example, but I'm not sure that they are wrong and they seem to be following the advice of medical experts.

It's hard for me to believe that the UK is being uniquely clear sighted, and the rest of the world is confused. But it's possible.

I can't find anywhere any details of the model that the British government is using, so that I can understand their response. Surely this must be in the public domain.

I haven't checked, but ditto for the (opposed?) model that the French government is using.

Que -- is there a united EC approach to this, a set of policies which give guidelines to all EU countries about (for example) when to close schools, restrict travel etc? Or is each country using a different model and following different objectives?

I would have thought that openness would be a good thing on this sort of situation, just to get the buy in of the people.

[vandermolen]

What I can't find anywhere is any details of the model that the British government is using, so that I can understand their response. Surely this must be in the public domain.

I haven't checked, but ditto for the (opposed?) model that the French government is using.

Que -- is there a united EC approach to this, a set of policies which give guidelines to all EU countries about (for example) when to close schools, restrict travel etc? Or is each country using a different model and following different objectives?

Interesting. I'm not sure what, if any, model they are following. I think they are just going by the advice of the Govt's Chief Medical Officer. The News today say that the majority of the people need to get the virus in order to build up 'herd immunity' otherwise it will keep coming back every year. Not a nice thought though.

[Jo498]

A federal state like Germany has trouble getting 16 states and the federal goverment to take the same or similar measures, so I am pretty sure the EU will not be able to streamline measures and reactions.

[Mandryka]

Interesting. I'm not sure what, if any, model they are following. I think they are just going by the advice of the Govt's Chief Medical Officer. The News today say that the majority of the people need to get the virus in order to build up 'herd immunity' otherwise it will keep coming back every year. Not a nice thought though.

Sure, but what I want to see is the thinking, the details of the thinking, which has led to the Govt's Chief Medical Officer's advice. Which may or may not be consistent with the details of the thinking which lead to the French Government's health minister's advice . . . The devil's in the detail.

[Mandryka]

A federal state like Germany has trouble getting 16 states and the federal goverment to take the same or similar measures, so I am pretty sure the EU will not be able to streamline measures and reactions.

That's extraordinary in a situation like this. Very bad.

Presumably everyone will agree on objectives (minimise deaths . . .) and the biology remains the same wherever you are, though clearly the health infrastructure, demographics, geography etc doesn't.

[Mandryka]

Here's something with a bit of detail about the model

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51858987

[ritter]

A federal state like Germany has trouble getting 16 states and the federal goverment to take the same or similar measures, so I am pretty sure the EU will not be able to streamline measures and reactions.

Same here in Spain. Each autonomous region has the authority to act how it sees fit. Only yesterday did the Prime Minister step in and issue recommendations applicable to the whole country (now that the Madrid region is severly affected, and activity here is coming to an almost complete stanstill).

[Rinaldo]

The aptly named "Stay the f*ck home" campaign is getting traction here in Czech Rep. Our government has shut down schools, gyms, concert halls and other public places + restaurants and bars must close after 8pm. I'm glad people are finally coming to their senses – Italy serves as a dire warning.

"Act as if you're infected and don't want to pass it on. Not as if you're trying to avoid being infected" is the best piece of advice I've encountered so far.

[71 dB]

Was this virus created in laboratories?

To my understanding the cause of this outbreak was inadequate hygieny regulations regarding live animal markets in China. Different animals are kept above each other in cages so that the animals below other animals are exposed to the feaces and viruses are transmitted. If China doesn't fix this, the World can expect a new pandemic every 10 years or so... 

[Karl Henning]

Was this virus created in laboratories?

No, but certain conspiracy theorists are fond to think so.

[Karl Henning]

When Gov. Baker declared the state of emergency in Mass. on Tuesday, I decided that I would go out only for therapy and church. As a good precaution (most of our parishioners are no longer young people) the church leadership cancelled last night's choir rehearsal and Sunday's service.